{"id":9171,"date":"2019-04-18T16:32:33","date_gmt":"2019-04-18T14:32:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=9171"},"modified":"2019-04-18T16:32:33","modified_gmt":"2019-04-18T14:32:33","slug":"basti-i-palokes-pd-se-per-30-qershorin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=9171","title":{"rendered":"Basti i Palok\u00ebs (PD-s\u00eb) p\u00ebr 30 Qershorin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Nga Eduard Zaloshnja<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kur u pyet n\u00eb nj\u00eb studio televizive se \u00e7do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00ebse nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00ebt do t\u2019i njohin zgjedhjet lokale edhe pa pjes\u00ebmarrjen e PD-s\u00eb, Edi Paloka, n\u00ebnkryetari i saj, vuri k\u00ebt\u00eb bast personal publik: \u201cZgjedhjet lokale nuk do t\u00eb zhvillohen dot pa opozit\u00ebn. P\u00ebrndryshe largohem nga politika\u201d. N\u00eb nj\u00eb studio tjet\u00ebr, Edmond Spaho, n\u00ebnkryetari tjet\u00ebr i PD-s\u00eb, nuk vuri nj\u00eb bast personal publik, por e b\u00ebri m\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb synimin strategjik t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb. \u201cZgjedhje n\u00eb qershor nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00ebt duhet t\u00eb parandalojn\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimin e situat\u00ebs\u201d, \u2013 tha ai. Nd\u00ebrsa kryetari Basha, n\u00eb nj\u00eb studio tjet\u00ebr televizive, p\u00ebrmendi togfjal\u00ebshin \u201cp\u00ebrplasje parapolitike\u201d. Ai tha: \u201cNe jemi sot n\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb p\u00ebrplasjeje pa kthim, dhe kjo p\u00ebrplasje do t\u00eb marr\u00eb p\u00ebrmasa parapolitike, n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se nuk zgjidhet me t\u00eb vetmen rrug\u00eb q\u00eb ka parashtruar opozita (largimin e Ram\u00ebs para zgjedhjeve)\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00eb sintez\u00eb e k\u00ebtyre deklaratave publike (si edhe t\u00eb t\u00eb tjerave q\u00eb kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb eksponent\u00eb t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, si Bogdani, Vasili, etj.) ravij\u00ebzon strategjin\u00eb e opozit\u00ebs. Meq\u00eb Rama dhe t\u00eb tij\u00ebt nuk jan\u00eb tutur deri m\u00eb sot nga djegia e mandateve dhe protestat e opozit\u00ebs, kancelerit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore mund t\u2019i tuten destabilitetit q\u00eb mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb bojkoti \u201cparapolitik\u201d i zgjedhjeve lokale t\u00eb 30 qershorit nga ana e opozit\u00ebs. Sipas k\u00ebsaj logjike, p\u00ebrplasjet civile dit\u00ebn e zgjedhjeve, mes votuesve t\u00eb PS-s\u00eb dhe militant\u00ebve bojkotues \u201cparapolitik\u00eb\u201d t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, mund t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb destabilitet dhe nj\u00eb eksod t\u00eb ri azilant\u00ebsh drejt Europ\u00ebs. Dhe k\u00ebt\u00eb gj\u00eb Europa dihet q\u00eb nuk e d\u00ebshiron\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Ngjash\u00ebm me bastet e ndeshjeve t\u00eb futbollit, edhe ky bast i opozit\u00ebs ka tre skenar\u00eb, secili me probabilitetin e vet.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Skenari A \u201330 qershori me pak incidente<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pavar\u00ebsisht deklaratave t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, kancelerit\u00eb mbeten tek q\u00ebndrimi i derisot\u00ebm. Ato nj\u00ebz\u00ebri kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb thirrje q\u00eb zgjedhjet lokale t\u00eb zhvillohen m\u00eb 30 qershor, dhe q\u00eb konkurrent\u00ebt e mundsh\u00ebm t\u00eb marrin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb to. Zgjedhjet zhvillohen n\u00eb 30 qershor, ku garojn\u00eb kandidat\u00ebt e PS-s\u00eb kund\u00ebr atyre t\u00eb partive t\u00eb vogla ose t\u00eb pavarurve. Nga gara dalin fitues n\u00eb shumic\u00eb d\u00ebrrmuese t\u00eb par\u00ebt. Pavar\u00ebsisht nga disa incidente n\u00eb qendra t\u00eb ndryshme votimi, kancelerit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore i njohin zgjedhjet si legjitime, duke p\u00ebrmendur mang\u00ebsit\u00eb e v\u00ebrejtura aty-k\u00ebtu.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00ebse ngjarjet rrjedhin k\u00ebshtu, PD-ja kthehet p\u00ebrfundimisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb parti jasht\u00eb sistemit (largohet nga bashkit\u00eb q\u00eb qeveris aktualisht). Sidoqoft\u00eb, mbetet me nj\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahje t\u00eb fort\u00eb n\u00eb sinorin e vet tradicional elektoral. Problem do ta ken\u00eb LSI-ja dhe partit\u00eb e vogla satelite t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat mund t\u00eb humbasin p\u00ebrkrah\u00ebsit n\u00eb bashkit\u00eb ku kan\u00eb aktualisht nj\u00eb far\u00eb pushteti\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Skenari B \u2013 30 qershori me shum\u00eb incidente<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pavar\u00ebsisht deklaratave t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, kancelerit\u00eb mbeten tek q\u00ebndrimi i derisot\u00ebm. Ato nj\u00ebz\u00ebri kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb thirrje q\u00eb zgjedhjet lokale t\u00eb zhvillohen n\u00eb 30 qershor, dhe q\u00eb konkurrent\u00ebt e mundsh\u00ebm t\u00eb marrin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb to. Zgjedhjet zhvillohen n\u00eb 30 qershor, ku garojn\u00eb kandidat\u00ebt e PS-s\u00eb kund\u00ebr atyre t\u00eb partive t\u00eb vogla ose t\u00eb pavarurve. Nga gara dalin fitues n\u00eb shumic\u00eb d\u00ebrrmuese t\u00eb par\u00ebt. Por incidentet jan\u00eb t\u00eb shumta dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapura n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb territorin. Kancelerit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore nuk i njohin zgjedhjet si legjitime, duke p\u00ebrmendur incidentet e shumta gjithandej.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00ebse ngjarjet rrjedhin k\u00ebshtu, dy vjet\u00ebt e ardhshme do t\u00eb jen\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr Edi Ram\u00ebn. I ndodhur n\u00ebn shigjetimin e vazhduesh\u00ebm t\u00eb kancelerive per\u00ebndimore dhe t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, ai do ta ket\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb 48% t\u00eb votave m\u00eb 2021, si\u00e7 mori n\u00eb 2017-\u00ebn\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Skenari C \u2013 Kancelerit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore nd\u00ebrhyjn\u00eb para 30 qershorit<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebr t\u2019i paraprir\u00eb skenarit B, kancelerit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore mund t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyjn\u00eb para 30 qershorit, duke ofruar nj\u00eb zgjidhje t\u00eb mesme. Ato mund t\u2019i k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb opozit\u00ebs t\u00eb marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb zgjedhjet lokale, me kushtin q\u00eb Rama ta l\u00ebr\u00eb postin e kryeministrit para zgjedhjeve parlamentare t\u00eb radh\u00ebs. Nj\u00eb model q\u00eb mund t\u00eb merret si shembull \u00ebsht\u00eb ai i Greqis\u00eb, ku kryetari i gjykat\u00ebs s\u00eb lart\u00eb merr drejtimin e qeveris\u00eb para zgjedhjeve, nd\u00ebrsa drejtimin e ministrive e marrin teknokrat\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrzgjedhur me konsensus. Ose mund t\u00eb zgjidhet nj\u00eb model tjet\u00ebr alternativ.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00ebse ngjarjet rrjedhin k\u00ebshtu, PS-ja mund t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri shumic\u00ebn e bashkive n\u00eb zgjedhjet lokale \u2013 opozita nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitur realisht p\u00ebr to. Sidoqoft\u00eb, PS-ja mund t\u00eb humbas\u00eb zgjedhjet parlamentare n\u00eb 2021.\u00a0 N\u00eb fund t\u00eb fundit, po b\u00ebhet rutin\u00eb rrotacioni nj\u00eb her\u00eb n\u00eb 8 vjet\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Sh\u00ebnim i autorit:<\/em><\/strong><em>\u00a0N\u00eb qoft\u00eb se do t\u00eb isha statisticien bastesh, do t\u2019i vija koeficient t\u00eb barabart\u00eb t\u00eb tre skenar\u00ebve. Th\u00ebn\u00eb ndryshe, probabiliteti p\u00ebr secilin skenar t\u00eb m\u00ebsip\u00ebrm mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb pak a shum\u00eb i nj\u00ebjt\u00eb.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\/afp.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nga Eduard Zaloshnja Kur u pyet n\u00eb nj\u00eb studio televizive se \u00e7do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00ebse nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00ebt do t\u2019i njohin zgjedhjet lokale edhe pa pjes\u00ebmarrjen e PD-s\u00eb, Edi Paloka, n\u00ebnkryetari i saj, vuri k\u00ebt\u00eb bast personal publik: \u201cZgjedhjet lokale nuk do t\u00eb zhvillohen dot pa opozit\u00ebn. P\u00ebrndryshe largohem nga politika\u201d. N\u00eb nj\u00eb studio tjet\u00ebr, Edmond Spaho, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Basti i Palok\u00ebs (PD-s\u00eb) p\u00ebr 30 Qershorin - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=9171\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Basti i Palok\u00ebs (PD-s\u00eb) p\u00ebr 30 Qershorin - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nga Eduard Zaloshnja Kur u pyet n\u00eb nj\u00eb studio televizive se \u00e7do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00ebse nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00ebt do t\u2019i njohin zgjedhjet lokale edhe pa pjes\u00ebmarrjen e PD-s\u00eb, Edi Paloka, n\u00ebnkryetari i saj, vuri k\u00ebt\u00eb bast personal publik: \u201cZgjedhjet lokale nuk do t\u00eb zhvillohen dot pa opozit\u00ebn. 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