Nga Daniel Drezner<\/p>\n
Rritja aktuale e proteksionizmit, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb pararend\u00ebsja e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Tret\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. N\u00eb vitin 2008, Kosova shpalli n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebanshme pavar\u00ebsin\u00eb nga Serbia. Qeveria serbe refuzoi t\u00eb njoh\u00eb provinc\u00ebn e shk\u00ebputur, dhe m\u00eb s\u00eb fundmi u ka b\u00ebr\u00eb presion an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb Interpolit, t\u00eb mos e pranonin si an\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigje, Kosova vendosi t\u00eb imponoj\u00eb nj\u00eb tarif\u00eb prej 10 p\u00ebrqind mbi importet e Serbis\u00eb, dhe nd\u00ebrsa mosmarr\u00ebveshja u p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzua, ajo e rriti tarif\u00ebn n\u00eb 100 p\u00ebrqind, edhe pse Serbia \u00ebsht\u00eb partneri m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm tregtar i vendit. SHBA dhe BE, e kan\u00eb nxitur Kosov\u00ebn t\u00eb anuloj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb tarif\u00eb, dhe t\u00eb negocioj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ulje t\u00eb tensioneve.<\/p>\n
Por, n\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj qeveria e Prishtin\u00ebs p\u00ebrfshiu n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rritje tarifash edhe Bosnje Herzegovin\u00ebn, nj\u00eb vend q\u00eb gjithashtu nuk e njeh pavar\u00ebsin\u00eb e Kosov\u00ebs. N\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb viteve 1900, ishte Serbia e sapo-pavar\u00ebsur q\u00eb nd\u00ebrmerrte veprime p\u00ebr t\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar var\u00ebsin\u00eb e saj ekonomike nga perandoria Austro-Hungareze.<\/p>\n
Ajo rriti importet e saj nga Franca, dhe n\u00ebnshkroi nj\u00eb bashkim doganor me Bullgarin\u00eb. N\u00eb vitin 1906, Austro-Hungaria u kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigj duke v\u00ebn\u00eb tarifa t\u00eb larta ndaj eksportit kryesor t\u00eb Serbis\u00eb: mishit t\u00eb derrit. E ashtuquajtura \u201cLufta e Derrit\u201d, zgjati edhe 5 vite t\u00eb tjera, gjat\u00eb t\u00eb cilave Serbia u zhvendos me v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi nga var\u00ebsia ekonomike q\u00eb kishte ndaj perandoris\u00eb s\u00eb Habsburg\u00ebve. Por, ajo luft\u00eb tregtare e nxiti Austro-Hungarin\u00eb t\u00eb aneksonte Bosnj\u00ebn dhe Hercegovin\u00ebn, nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje q\u00eb shkaktoi tensione me Rusin\u00eb, dhe n\u00eb fund solli vrasjen e arkiduk\u00ebs Franc Ferdinand, n\u00eb qershorin e 1914-\u00ebs nga nj\u00eb serbo-boshnjak.<\/p>\n
Proteksionizmi ekonomik n\u00eb Ballkan, nuk ishte shkaktari kryesor i Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. Sidoqoft\u00eb, ai e b\u00ebri m\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb shp\u00ebrthimin e saj. A \u00ebsht\u00eb kjo m\u00eb shum\u00eb se sa thjeshte nj\u00eb paralele historike rast\u00ebsore? Un\u00eb po filloj t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsohem se \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebshtu.<\/p>\n
Para fillimit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, fuqit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha dhe t\u00eb vogla, mor\u00ebn nj\u00eb seri hapash p\u00ebr t\u00eb penguar globalizimin e shekullit XIX-t\u00eb. Ne po fillojm\u00eb t\u00eb shohim nj\u00eb qasje t\u00eb ngjashme me globalizimin e shekullit XXI-t\u00eb. Nj\u00eb parim qendror i qasjes liberale ndaj marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, \u00ebsht\u00eb se nd\u00ebrvar\u00ebsia ekonomike redukton gjasat e nj\u00eb lufte.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr disa studiues, zhvillimi i tregjeve t\u00eb lira, zvog\u00eblon motivin e ekspansionit territorial p\u00ebr fitime. P\u00ebr t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt, ekspozimi ndaj tregjeve globale t\u00eb kapitalit, i detyron shtetet t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb m\u00eb pak luftarake, pasi ato shqet\u00ebsohen p\u00ebr nj\u00eb eksod nd\u00ebrkufitar t\u00eb parave dhe investitor\u00ebve.<\/p>\n
Por, nj\u00eb kamp i tret\u00eb, thot\u00eb se shkalla e lart\u00eb e nd\u00ebrvar\u00ebsis\u00eb ekonomike, forcon nxitjen p\u00ebr t\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar konfliktet p\u00ebrmes mjeteve jo t\u00eb dhunshme. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, skeptik\u00ebt e paqes kapitaliste, citojn\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb nisjen e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, si sfid\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe empirike ndaj k\u00ebtij argumenti.<\/p>\n
Por, e v\u00ebrteta \u00ebsht\u00eb pak m\u00eb komplekse. N\u00eb shum\u00eb aspekte, globalizimi i shekullit XIX-t\u00eb ishte viktim\u00eb e suksesit t\u00eb tij. Tarifat e reduktuara dhe kostot e transportit, e \u201cp\u00ebrmbyt\u00ebn\u201d Evrop\u00ebn me mallra t\u00eb lira nga Rusia dhe Shtetet e Bashkuara. T\u00eb ardhurat e pronar\u00ebve t\u00eb tokave n\u00eb k\u00ebto vende p\u00ebsuan nj\u00eb goditje serioze, dhe Depresioni i Gjat\u00eb q\u00eb ndodhi midis viteve 1873-1896, \u00e7`ka i vuri n\u00ebn presion qeverit\u00eb evropiane, p\u00ebr t`u mbrojtur kund\u00ebr importeve t\u00eb lira.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb 1879, kancelari gjerman Oto von Bismark, nisi t\u00eb rriste tarifat. Franca u p\u00ebrgjigj po nj\u00eblloj n\u00eb vitet 1880. Shembullin e ndoq\u00ebn edhe shum\u00eb fuqi t\u00eb mesme n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, si Italia, Spanja dhe Suedia. N\u00eb disa raste, k\u00ebto mosmarr\u00ebveshje tarifore u zgjidh\u00ebn, dhe tregtia u rikthye n\u00eb normalitet. N\u00eb raste t\u00eb tjera, pati t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme dhe dob\u00ebsuese.<\/p>\n
A po \u201cshp\u00ebrthen\u201d s\u00ebrish globalizimi? Kriza financiare e vitit 2008, nxiti n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim thirrjet p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb proteksioniz\u00ebm tregtar. Shumica e qeverive t\u00eb fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha i kund\u00ebrshtuan ato thirrje menj\u00ebher\u00eb pas kriz\u00ebs, por nacionalizmi populist ngjiti n\u00eb sken\u00eb nj\u00eb val\u00eb t\u00eb re lider\u00ebsh, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt ishin t\u00eb etur t`i b\u00ebnin t\u00eb huajt \u201ckoka turku\u201d.<\/p>\n
E gjith\u00eb kjo, ndodhi para se Donald Trumpi t\u00eb deklaronte n\u00eb marsinn e vitit 2018, se \u201cluft\u00ebrat tregtare jan\u00eb t\u00eb mira, dhe t\u00eb lehta p\u00ebr t\u2019u fituar\u201d, dhe pastaj nisi t\u00eb veproj\u00eb n\u00eb at\u00eb drejtim. Ai rriti tarifat e p\u00ebrgjithshme, mbi importin e \u00e7elikut dhe aluminit. Reagimi ishte i shpejt\u00eb: BE vendosi masa nd\u00ebshkuese ndaj eksporteve t\u00eb SHBA.<\/p>\n
Edhe partner\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb tregtar\u00eb, nga Japonia n\u00eb Indi, dhe Meksik\u00eb, kan\u00eb marr\u00eb kund\u00ebrmasat e tyre. Administrata Trump, iu kthye pastaj Kin\u00ebs, duke imponuar tarifa n\u00eb vler\u00eb 250 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb ndaj importeve kineze, me k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin p\u00ebr t\u2019i imponuar nj\u00eb seri t\u00eb re tarifash, me nj\u00eb efekt prej 267 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh, n\u00ebse nuk arrihet shpejt.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje reciproke, Kina imponoi tarifat mbi eksportet amerikane, me nj\u00eb efekt prej m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 60 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh. Fatmir\u00ebsisht, efekti i kombinuar i proteksionizmit nuk ka ndikuar shum\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhjes ekonomike, edhe pse efekti mbi ekonomin\u00eb globale \u00ebsh\u00ebt i ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Ekonomist\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb, vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb se luft\u00ebrat tregtare, shkaktuan humbjen e rreth 7 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebve n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, gjat\u00eb 11 muajve t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2018, dhe kostot mujore po rriten me kalimin e koh\u00ebs. M\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja, lufta tregtare mund t\u00eb prish\u00eb zinxhirin furnizues global, q\u00eb ka integruar gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb dy ekonomit\u00eb gjat\u00eb dy dekadave t\u00eb fundit.<\/p>\n
Analogjit\u00eb, jan\u00eb mjete t\u00eb pap\u00ebrsosura p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar bot\u00ebn. N\u00eb disa m\u00ebnyr\u00eb, fillim-shekulli XXI-t\u00eb, nuk i ngjan shekullit XX-t\u00eb. Sot ekzistojn\u00eb mekanizma t\u00eb tjer\u00eb kontrolli, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe mes fuqive, sikurse \u00ebsht\u00eb parandalimi b\u00ebrthamor. Ndaj nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr luft\u00eb e madhe, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e pashmangshme.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, reagimi ndaj globalizimit, q\u00eb i parapriu Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Madhe, duket se p\u00ebrs\u00ebritet sot. N\u00eb fakt, ka disa aspekte n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat momenti aktual \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i friksh\u00ebm se epoka e para 1914-\u00ebs. N\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, hegjemonia e bot\u00ebs, Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuar, veproi si nj\u00eb penges\u00eb kund\u00ebr proteksionizmit ekonomik.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2019, Shtetet e Bashkuara jan\u00eb n\u00eb krye t\u00eb val\u00ebs s\u00eb proteksionizmit. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb nga leksionet e historis\u00eb, vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse jan\u00eb t\u00eb vet\u00ebdijsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb ka ndodhur v\u00ebrtet. Do t\u00eb ishte mir\u00eb, n\u00ebse lider\u00ebt e sot\u00ebm bot\u00ebror\u00eb do t\u00eb dinin m\u00eb shum\u00eb mbi paralelet e frikshme midis koh\u00ebs s\u00eb sotme, dhe epok\u00ebs para vitit 1914. P\u00ebrndryshe, ngadal\u00ebsimi i nd\u00ebrvar\u00ebsis\u00eb do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb \u2013 dhe paqja kapitaliste me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ne jemi m\u00ebsuar t\u00eb gjith\u00eb, mund t\u00eb mos mbijetoj\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Sh\u00ebnim: Daniel Drezner, \u00ebsht\u00eb profesor i politik\u00ebs nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb Fakultetin Juridik dhe t\u00eb Diplomacis\u00eb n\u00eb Universitetin Tafts. Libri i tij i fundit, titullohet \u201cIndustria e ideve\u201d<\/p>\n
Marr\u00eb me shkurtime nga \u201cReason\u201d \u2013 Bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nga Daniel Drezner Rritja aktuale e proteksionizmit, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb pararend\u00ebsja e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Tret\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. N\u00eb vitin 2008, Kosova shpalli n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebanshme pavar\u00ebsin\u00eb nga Serbia. Qeveria serbe refuzoi t\u00eb njoh\u00eb provinc\u00ebn e shk\u00ebputur, dhe m\u00eb s\u00eb fundmi u ka b\u00ebr\u00eb presion an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb Interpolit, t\u00eb mos e pranonin si an\u00ebtare. N\u00eb kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigje, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9077,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n