Nga Paul Voosen<\/p>\n
A mund t\u00eb zhduken papritur ret\u00eb gri, q\u00eb varen posht\u00eb nj\u00eb oqeani, n\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb q\u00eb po ngrohet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb? Po, n\u00ebse i besoni nj\u00eb studimi t\u00eb botuar s\u00eb fundmi n\u00eb \u201cNature Geoscience\u201d. N\u00ebse nivelet atmosferike t\u00eb dioksidit t\u00eb karbonit (CO2) trefishohen \u2013 nj\u00eb skenar q\u00eb nuk ka shum\u00eb gjasa, por q\u00eb s\u2019mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtohet, duke pasur parasysh normat e shkuara t\u00eb emetimeve n\u00eb atmosphere, duke psur parasysh aktivitetin e njeriut \u2013 k\u00ebto re mund t\u00eb zhduken, duke shkaktuar efekte t\u00eb frikshme.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb pak nga ret\u00eb ftoh\u00ebse, do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte nj\u00eb Tok\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ngroht\u00eb, e cila nga ana tjet\u00ebr do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte edhe m\u00eb pak re, duke \u00e7uar n\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje me 8\u00b0 C t\u00eb ngrohjes globale \u2013 nj\u00eb ndryshim drith\u00ebrues, q\u00eb do t\u00eb ndryshonte t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht bot\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Por shum\u00eb shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb klim\u00ebs q\u00eb hulumtojn\u00eb ret\u00eb, e kan\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtuar k\u00ebt\u00eb studimit, duke argumentuar se analiza e tij bazohet mbi nj\u00eb cop\u00ebz t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb atmosfer\u00ebs, dhe nuk mund t\u00eb aplikohet n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb globin. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cmodel i thjesht\u00eb, q\u00eb ka n\u00eb thelb nj\u00eb \u00e7el\u00ebs me dy brava\u201d- thot\u00eb Xhoel Norris, shkenc\u00ebtar n\u00eb Institutin e Oqeanografis\u00eb n\u00eb San Diego t\u00eb Kalifornis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cPor ka shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb, q\u00eb Toka t\u00eb ket\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb \u2018brava\u2019 se sa kaq\u201d- thekson ai. Nd\u00ebrsa jan\u00eb shum\u00eb sofistikuara, modelet e klim\u00ebs kan\u00eb probleme me studimin e sjelljes s\u00eb reve.<\/p>\n
Rrymat turbulente dhe me lag\u00ebshsti t\u00eb kondensuar t\u00eb ajrit, formojn\u00eb re n\u00eb shkall\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla se sa modelet q\u00eb ato mund t\u00eb simulojn\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrs\u00ebdrejti. P\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar m\u00eb mir\u00eb ret\u00eb, shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt kan\u00eb zhvilluar simulime me rezolucion t\u00eb lart\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat studiojn\u00eb sjelljen e pjes\u00ebve t\u00eb vogla t\u00eb atmosfer\u00ebs, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb fizik\u00ebn ky\u00e7e t\u00eb formimit t\u00eb reve, q\u00eb modelet e klim\u00ebs nuk mund ta trajtojn\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejti.<\/p>\n
Disa vite m\u00eb par\u00eb, nj\u00eb projekt q\u00eb krahasonte 6 simulime t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejta t\u00eb vorbullave ajrore, v\u00ebrente se si vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb rritje e temperatur\u00ebs prej 2 \u00b0C, ndikonte tek ret\u00eb e ul\u00ebta mbi oqean.<\/p>\n
U shfaq\u00ebn dy dinamika, t\u00eb cilat i b\u00ebn\u00eb ret\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb holla dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb ngrohta. S\u00eb pari, temperaturat m\u00eb t\u00eb larta, lejuan q\u00eb ajri m\u00eb i that\u00eb t\u00eb dep\u00ebrtoj\u00eb n\u00eb ret\u00eb e holla nga lart, duke i penguar ato t\u00eb trashen, dhe t\u00eb reflektojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb energjin\u00eb e diellit.<\/p>\n
S\u00eb dyti, nivelet e rritura t\u00eb CO2, bllokojn\u00eb ngrohjen pran\u00eb majave t\u00eb reve, duke parandaluar ftohjen e tyre. P\u00ebr shkak se nj\u00eb ftohje e till\u00eb nxit turbulenc\u00ebn q\u00eb formon ret\u00eb, efekti mund t\u00eb pengoj\u00eb formimin e reve, duke nxitur ngrohjen e m\u00ebtejshme. N\u00ebse emetimet vazhdonin, dukej e besueshme q\u00eb k\u00ebto re t\u00eb holla t\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebheshin fare.<\/p>\n
Frustrimi me m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si modelet e dob\u00ebta globale merren me ret\u00eb, ishte arsyeja kryesore pse Tapio Shnajder, nj\u00eb klimatolog n\u00eb Institutin e Teknologjis\u00eb n\u00eb Kaliforni, dhe autori kryesor i studimit t\u00eb ri, nisi vitin e shkuar nd\u00ebrtimin e nj\u00eb modeli t\u00eb ri klimatik.<\/p>\n
E quajtur \u201cMakina e Klim\u00ebs\u201d, ajo do t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebn artificiale, p\u00ebr t\u00eb m\u00ebsuar m\u00eb shum\u00eb mbi simulimet e vorbullave t\u00eb er\u00ebs, dhe v\u00ebzhgimet satelitore, p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar paraqitjen e reve n\u00eb aparaturat mat\u00ebse. Studimi i ri, i cili p\u00ebrdor simulimin e vorbull\u00ebs, tregon t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat reagime q\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt i kishin identifikuar m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Por Shnajder stimuloi reagimin e tyre p\u00ebr p\u00ebrq\u00ebndrime shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb CO2. Meq\u00eb nivelet arrit\u00ebn n\u00eb 1200 pjes\u00eb p\u00ebr million \u2013 ose 3 her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se ato q\u00eb jan\u00eb sot, dhe nj\u00eb norm\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb arrihet n\u00eb shekullin e ardhsh\u00ebm, n\u00ebse nuk b\u00ebhen p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndaluar ndryshimet klimatike \u2013 pjes\u00ebt e ul\u00ebta t\u00eb reve, do t\u00eb zhduk\u00ebn me shpejt\u00ebsi.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb disa shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb reve, kund\u00ebrshtojn\u00eb hapin tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb nd\u00ebrmori n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast Shnajder:ekstrapolimi i rezultateve t\u00eb simulimit prej tij t\u00eb vorbull\u00ebs, p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb vend q\u00eb duket i prirur p\u00ebr zhdukjen e reve. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb, t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto re u zhduk\u00ebn gati n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, duke lejuar q\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr energji diellore t\u00eb mb\u00ebrrinte n\u00eb thell\u00ebsi t\u00eb oqeanit t\u00eb err\u00ebt.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u00cbsht\u00eb shum\u00eb thjesht\u00ebzuese t\u00eb mendohet q\u00eb ret\u00eb dhe oqeani, do t\u00eb lidhen s\u00eb bashku n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb kaq t\u00eb thjesht\u00eb\u201d- thot\u00eb Bjorn Stivens, klimatolog n\u00eb Institutin Maks Plank p\u00ebr Meteorologjin\u00eb n\u00eb Hamburg t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb. \u201cKy bashkim, \u00ebsht\u00eb kryer n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb nuk jep besim tek rezultati final\u201d- tha ai.<\/p>\n
ScienceMag \u2013 Bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nga Paul Voosen A mund t\u00eb zhduken papritur ret\u00eb gri, q\u00eb varen posht\u00eb nj\u00eb oqeani, n\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb q\u00eb po ngrohet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb? Po, n\u00ebse i besoni nj\u00eb studimi t\u00eb botuar s\u00eb fundmi n\u00eb \u201cNature Geoscience\u201d. N\u00ebse nivelet atmosferike t\u00eb dioksidit t\u00eb karbonit (CO2) trefishohen \u2013 nj\u00eb skenar q\u00eb nuk ka shum\u00eb gjasa, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n