{"id":6294,"date":"2019-03-27T07:43:23","date_gmt":"2019-03-27T06:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=6294"},"modified":"2019-03-27T07:43:23","modified_gmt":"2019-03-27T06:43:23","slug":"kush-e-rrezoi-euron-nga-vijne-dhe-ku-shkojne-parate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=6294","title":{"rendered":"Kush e \u201crr\u00ebzoi\u201d euron? Nga vijn\u00eb dhe ku shkojn\u00eb parat\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u00eb 19 dhjetor t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar, euro u k\u00ebmbye me 122.69 lek\u00eb, duke arritur n\u00eb nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, q\u00eb nga gushti 2008. Nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebr gjith\u00eb vitin kursi mesatar i k\u00ebmbimit ishte 127.6 lek\u00eb, me nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej 6.5 lek\u00ebsh n\u00eb raport me mesataren e nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb, duke sh\u00ebnuar r\u00ebnien m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe vjetore q\u00eb nga 2004-a.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebn\u00e7mimi i fort\u00eb i euros n\u00ebnkupton nj\u00eb ofert\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb monedh\u00ebs s\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt n\u00eb raport me k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb. Por, nga ka ardhur kjo ofert\u00eb e lart\u00eb e valut\u00ebs? T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat zyrtare t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, t\u00eb publikuara n\u00eb bilancin e pagesave tregojn\u00eb se ekonomia formale nuk ka sjell\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb valut\u00eb n\u00eb 2018-n. Deficiti i llogaris\u00eb korente, nj\u00eb tregues q\u00eb mat transaksionet e hyrjes dhe daljes s\u00eb valut\u00ebs n\u00eb vend, ishte -860 milion\u00eb euro n\u00eb vitin 2018, me nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim prej vet\u00ebm 6 milion\u00eb euro, nj\u00eb shum\u00eb e pap\u00ebrfillshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb kursin (transaksionet ditore vler\u00ebsohen n\u00eb mbi 50 milion\u00eb euro). Madje vet\u00ebm n\u00eb tremujorin e kat\u00ebrt, kur euro sh\u00ebnoi nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb fort\u00eb, deficiti i llogaris\u00eb korente ishte 364 milion\u00eb euro, duke arritur nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb q\u00eb nga 2011-a! (shiko grafikun: deficiti i llogaris\u00eb korente T IV).<\/p>\n

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\"\"T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat historike t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se q\u00eb nga viti 2015, periudh\u00eb kur euro ka r\u00ebn\u00eb me 12 lek\u00eb, ose gati 9%, deficiti i llogaris\u00eb korente ka mbetur pothuajse i pandryshuar, madje n\u00eb 2017-n ai u p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsua leht\u00eb. Teorikisht lidhja duhet t\u00eb ishte e drejt\u00eb, dmth nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim i deficitit t\u00eb llogaris\u00eb korente, q\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton m\u00eb shum\u00eb valut\u00eb t\u00eb hyr\u00eb nga burimet zyrtare, duhet t\u00eb kishte ndikuar n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e euros. Praktikisht kjo nuk ka ndodhur, si\u00e7 e tregon dhe grafiku i ecuris\u00eb s\u00eb kursit dhe deficitit t\u00eb llogaris\u00eb korente. Zyrtarisht n\u00eb vend nuk ka hyr\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb valut\u00eb tre vitet e fundit, por s\u00ebrish euro \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebn\u00e7muar ndjesh\u00ebm!<\/div>\n

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Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr tregues i sasis\u00eb s\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb valut\u00ebs q\u00eb qarkullon n\u00eb vend, krahas efektit tek kursi, \u00ebsht\u00eb rritja e lart\u00eb e depozitave n\u00eb valut\u00eb. Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, depozitat n\u00eb euro n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2018 arrit\u00ebn n\u00eb 4 miliard\u00eb euro, me nj\u00eb rritje prej 10% me baz\u00eb vjetore, ose rreth 370 milion\u00eb euro m\u00eb shum\u00eb. Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb niveli m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i regjistruar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb i kursimeve n\u00eb monedh\u00ebn e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt. Shtimi i depozitave n\u00eb euro n\u00eb 2018-n ishte shum\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb krahasuar me vitin e m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm, kur ato u rrit\u00ebn me vet\u00ebm 68 milion\u00eb euro.<\/p>\n

Krahas ofert\u00ebs s\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb euros, nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr faktor q\u00eb ndikoi n\u00eb n\u00ebn\u00e7mimin e euros n\u00eb 2018-n ishte konvertimi i kapitalit t\u00eb bankave, q\u00eb iu shtua dhe disbursimi i nj\u00eb kredie t\u00eb BERZH p\u00ebr Koorporat\u00ebn Elektroenergjetike Shqiptare. Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb t\u00eb ditur se k\u00ebto transaksione p\u00ebrb\u00ebnin nj\u00eb shum\u00eb af\u00ebr 300 milion\u00eb euro p\u00ebr t\u2019u konvertuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb caktuar, duke ushtruar presion p\u00ebr n\u00ebn\u00e7mimin e euros. Por, nga ana tjet\u00ebr BSH pranoi se ka bler\u00eb mbi 400 milion\u00eb euro n\u00eb total gjat\u00eb, kryesisht gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs qershor-shtator, jo vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr efekt t\u00eb kursit por dhe p\u00ebr arsye t\u00eb rezerv\u00ebs valutore, \u00e7ka duhet t\u00eb kishte amortizuar efektin e konvertimit t\u00eb kapitalit dhe kredis\u00eb s\u00eb BERZH.<\/p>\n

Nga vijn\u00eb dhe ku shkojn\u00eb parat\u00eb (zyrtarisht)<\/p>\n

Sasia m\u00eb e lart\u00eb e valut\u00ebs jasht\u00eb vendi del p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb mallra jasht\u00eb, q\u00eb arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb 3.8 miliard\u00eb euro, ose gati 4 her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se valuta q\u00eb hyn si rrjedhoj\u00eb e shitjes s\u00eb mallrave jasht\u00eb vendit, duke shkaktuar nj\u00eb deficit prej gati 2.9 miliard\u00eb euro. Deficiti i lart\u00eb i mallrave ndikon duksh\u00ebm n\u00eb gjith\u00eb deficitin e llogaris\u00eb korente.<\/p>\n

Nga sh\u00ebrbimet, bilanci \u00ebsht\u00eb pozitiv me rreth 1 miliard\u00eb euro. K\u00ebtu ndikojn\u00eb eksportet e sh\u00ebrbimeve, kryesisht nga aktiviteti i call center e fasoni si dhe t\u00eb ardhurat neto nga turizmi, q\u00eb gjeneruan neto 431 milion\u00eb euro (ndon\u00ebse dhe shpenzimet e shqiptar\u00ebve jan\u00eb rritur ndjesh\u00ebm \u00e7ka b\u00ebri q\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat neto nga turizmi t\u00eb jen\u00eb 3.5% m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta se nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb pare).<\/p>\n

Bilanci \u00ebsht\u00eb kthyer negative n\u00eb -5 milion\u00eb euro p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhurat par\u00ebsore, q\u00eb ka ardhur si rrjedhoj\u00eb e rritjes s\u00eb investimeve jasht\u00eb.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Pozitiv \u00ebsht\u00eb bilanci i t\u00eb ardhurave dyt\u00ebsore, q\u00eb jan\u00eb kryesisht parat\u00eb q\u00eb sjellin emigrant\u00ebt n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi, t\u00eb cilat vitet e fundit po i kthehen s\u00ebrish rritjes, si rrjedhoj\u00eb e rigjall\u00ebrimit t\u00eb ciklit t\u00eb emigracionit.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb rezultante, nga Shqip\u00ebria dol\u00ebn neto 860milion\u00eb euro n\u00eb 2018-n, me nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim prej vet\u00ebm 6 milion\u00eb eurosh n\u00eb raport me vitin e m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm.\/Monitor<\/p>\n

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