{"id":5647,"date":"2019-03-22T07:47:29","date_gmt":"2019-03-22T06:47:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=5647"},"modified":"2019-03-22T07:47:29","modified_gmt":"2019-03-22T06:47:29","slug":"bebet-tre-hipotezat-e-reja-per-ecurine-e-lindjeve-deri-me-2031","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=5647","title":{"rendered":"Bebet, tre hipotezat e reja p\u00ebr ecurin\u00eb e lindjeve deri me 2031"},"content":{"rendered":"

Shqip\u00ebria rrezikon t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihet n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb uljes se riprodhimit n\u00eb rreth nj\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do grua gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs n\u00eb vijim duke e sjell\u00eb perspektiven e popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie pashmangshme.<\/p>\n

Mosha mesatare n\u00eb lindje n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ka shfaqur nj\u00eb rritje konstante lineare me rreth 0,27 \u00e7do vit, p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs nga viti 2014 deri n\u00eb vitin 2018. Gjithashtu, ky tregues ka mbajtur t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rit\u00ebm rritjeje pavar\u00ebsisht rritjes apo zvog\u00eblimit t\u00eb indeksit sintetik t\u00eb fekonditetit. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, \u00ebsht\u00eb menduar q\u00eb MML do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb rritjen lineare me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rit\u00ebm deri n\u00eb vitin 2031, kur pritet t\u00eb arrij\u00eb n\u00eb 31,5 vite.<\/p>\n

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INSTAT ka v\u00ebshtruar perspektiv\u00ebn e lindjeve sipas tre hipotezave si m\u00eb posht\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Lindshm\u00ebria e lart\u00eb (ISF e lart\u00eb)<\/strong>
\nSi shembull i normave q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm t\u00eb larta t\u00eb lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb sh\u00ebrbejn\u00eb Vendet Skandinave (Danimarka, Norvegjia dhe Suedia). Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb Eurostat, indeksi sintetik i fekonditetit n\u00eb k\u00ebto vende, me p\u00ebrjashtime t\u00eb rralla, \u00ebsht\u00eb luhatur nd\u00ebrmjet 1,65 dhe 2,0 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb mosh\u00eb riprodhuese p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 2001 \u2013 2016. Prandaj, duke marr\u00eb si shembull p\u00ebrvoj\u00ebn e k\u00ebtyre vendeve, hipoteza e ISF t\u00eb lart\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb projektuar me an\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb funksioni logaritmik q\u00eb t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nga 1,37 lindje p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb vitin 2018 n\u00eb 1,8 lindje p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb vitin 2031.<\/p>\n

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Lindshm\u00ebria e mesme (ISF e mesme)<\/strong>
\nN\u00eb rastin e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb mesme, ISF \u00ebsht\u00eb projektuar t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nga 1,37 lindje p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb vitin 2018 n\u00eb 1,5 lindje p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb vitin 2031, gjithmon\u00eb duke ndjekur nj\u00eb funksion logaritmik. Ky nivel p\u00ebrkon me mesataren e periudh\u00ebs 2015 \u2013 2018, vite gjat\u00eb t\u00eb cilave ISF ka qen\u00eb n\u00ebn nivelin 1,7. Kjo hipotez\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton q\u00eb grat\u00eb n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri do t\u00eb rikuperojn\u00eb lindjet, pasi mendohet q\u00eb gjat\u00eb pes\u00eb viteve paraardh\u00ebse ato t\u2019i ken\u00eb shtyr\u00eb ato. Ky fenomen i shtyrjes dhe m\u00eb pas rikuperimit t\u00eb lindjeve \u00ebsht\u00eb i njohur dhe mb\u00ebshtetet p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr edhe nga rritja konstante e mosh\u00ebs mesatare n\u00eb lindje.<\/p>\n

Lindshm\u00ebria e ul\u00ebt (ISF e ul\u00ebt)<\/strong>
\nN\u00eb rastin e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb ul\u00ebt, ISF \u00ebsht\u00eb projektuar me an\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb funksioni logaritmik t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nga 1,37 lindje p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb vitin 2018 n\u00eb 1,2 lindje p\u00ebr grua n\u00eb vitin 2031. Niveli prej 1,2 lindjesh p\u00ebr grua \u00ebsht\u00eb marr\u00eb nga p\u00ebrvoja e m\u00ebparshme e vendeve t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Lindore. N\u00eb k\u00ebto vende, gjat\u00eb viteve 1990 dhe 2000, indeksi sintetik i fekonditetit arriti n\u00eb nivele shum\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta. Rastet m\u00eb ekstreme jan\u00eb ato t\u00eb Bullgaris\u00eb (1,09 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua) dhe t\u00eb Republik\u00ebs \u00c7eke (1,13 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua), p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Lindore ISF arriti minimumin, rreth vler\u00ebs 1,2 lindje p\u00ebr grua. N\u00eb hipotez\u00ebn e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb ul\u00ebt mendohet q\u00eb ISF e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nivelin 1,2 n\u00eb vitin 2031 dhe ndoshta m\u00eb pas t\u00eb filloj\u00eb rekuperimin e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb.\/Monitor<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Shqip\u00ebria rrezikon t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihet n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb uljes se riprodhimit n\u00eb rreth nj\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do grua gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs n\u00eb vijim duke e sjell\u00eb perspektiven e popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie pashmangshme. Mosha mesatare n\u00eb lindje n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ka shfaqur nj\u00eb rritje konstante lineare me rreth 0,27 \u00e7do vit, p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4266,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,3,21],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nBebet, tre hipotezat e reja p\u00ebr ecurin\u00eb e lindjeve deri me 2031 - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=5647\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bebet, tre hipotezat e reja p\u00ebr ecurin\u00eb e lindjeve deri me 2031 - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Shqip\u00ebria rrezikon t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihet n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb uljes se riprodhimit n\u00eb rreth nj\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do grua gjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs n\u00eb vijim duke e sjell\u00eb perspektiven e popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie pashmangshme. 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