{"id":560,"date":"2019-02-08T16:05:57","date_gmt":"2019-02-08T15:05:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=560"},"modified":"2019-02-08T16:05:57","modified_gmt":"2019-02-08T15:05:57","slug":"cduhet-te-mesojme-nga-40-vjet-nderhyrje-te-shba-se-ne-lindjen-e-mesme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=560","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7\u2019duhet t\u00eb m\u00ebsojm\u00eb nga 40 vjet nd\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nga Alireza Ahmadi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Me njoftimin befasues t\u00eb t\u00ebrheqjes s\u00eb forcave amerikane nga Siria, dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb mas\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl, shpalljen e nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqjeje t\u00eb rreth 7.000 trupave amerikane nga Afganistani, shum\u00eb kritik\u00eb intervecionist\u00eb q\u00eb kishin toleruar sulmet e paefektshme t\u00eb Donald Trumpit kund\u00ebr Asadit dhe bisedimet e paqes me taleban\u00ebt, u t\u00ebrbuan nga inati.<\/p>\n

Por edhe pasi Trump e mbrojti pozicionin e tij, dhe tha se Irani \u201cmund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb d\u00ebshiron\u201d n\u00eb Siri, Sekretari i Shtetit Majk Pompeo dhe K\u00ebshilltari i Siguris\u00eb Komb\u00ebtare Xhon Bolton, e kan\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsuar qart\u00ebsin\u00eb e asaj q\u00eb dukej si nj\u00eb dekret presidencial q\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje.<\/p>\n

Politika e administrat\u00ebs s\u00eb Trump n\u00eb Siri, duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb rikthyer n\u00eb gjendjen normale t\u00eb paqart\u00ebsis\u00eb politike dhe strategjike. Nd\u00ebrsa SHBA ka filluar nj\u00ebfar\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje nga Siria veriore, Bolton u tha zyrtar\u00ebve izraelit\u00ebve se nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje e plot\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb kushteve, dhe Pompeo n\u00ebnkuptoi se nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje e till\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e kusht\u00ebzuar nga mbajtja e nj\u00eb koalicioni t\u00eb bashkuar kund\u00ebr Iranit.<\/p>\n

V\u00ebrshimi i kritikave kund\u00ebr vendimit origjinal t\u00eb transmetuar n\u00eb media, dhe reagimet nga zyrtar\u00ebt e Uashingtonit dhe establishmentit t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb SHBA, e pasuar nga dor\u00ebheqja n\u00eb form\u00eb proteste e Sekretarit t\u00eb Mbrojtjes Xhejms Matis, duket se ka zbutur vendosm\u00ebrin\u00eb e Trump p\u00ebr t\u2019u t\u00ebrhequr.<\/p>\n

Shum\u00eb nga kritik\u00ebt, pretenduan se t\u00ebrheqja nga Siria do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb hap i gabuar, pasi ajo do ta b\u00ebnte Iranin dhe Rusin\u00eb t\u00eb lumtur, ose do t\u2019u dhuronte atyre nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfitim taktik. \u201cMullah\u00ebt n\u00eb Teheran do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb g\u00ebzuar, dhe do t\u00eb shohin nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr shenj\u00eb dob\u00ebsie t\u00eb presidentit amerikan\u201d- thuhej n\u00eb nj\u00eb editorial t\u00eb \u201cThe \u00cball Street Journal\u201d.<\/p>\n

Pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e k\u00ebtyre argumenteve, duket e projektuar t\u00eb provokoj\u00eb nj\u00eb reagim emocional ndaj aventurizmit ushtarak, aty ku mungon nj\u00eb interes madhor p\u00ebr vendin. Natyrisht, Shtetet e Bashkuara nuk mund t\u00eb krijojn\u00eb nj\u00eb politik\u00eb t\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb bazuar n\u00eb kusht\u00ebzimin e gatishm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebve t\u00eb saj.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse Shtetet e Bashkuara do t\u00eb kishin vendosur t\u00eb mos pushtonin Irakun, ky do t\u00eb ishte edhe vendimi i duhur. Pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e kritikave, p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb lloj zije p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb kritik\u00ebt e konsiderojn\u00eb si leva e fuqishme amerikane, q\u00eb do t\u2019i mund\u00ebsonte Amerik\u00ebs nj\u00eb rol kuptimplot\u00eb n\u00eb Sirin\u00eb e pas luft\u00ebs dhe kufizimin, dhe n\u00eb mos d\u00ebbimin e plot\u00eb t\u00eb forcave t\u00eb lidhura me Iranin.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebto kritika, nuk arrijn\u00eb t\u00eb vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb leksionet q\u00eb dalin nga 40 vitet e veprimeve ushtarake amerikane, n\u00eb rajonin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme.<\/p>\n

Prania e ushtris\u00eb amerikane, nuk mund ta form\u00ebsoj\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrisht orientimin politik dhe struktur\u00ebn e shoq\u00ebrive n\u00eb rajon. Iraku dhe Afganistani, jan\u00eb shembuj m\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb. Fuqia e pakrahasueshme ushtarake amerikane, ka d\u00ebshtuaar nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb t\u00eb konturoj\u00eb vendimet e aktor\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb teat\u00ebr.<\/p>\n

Shtetet e Bashkuara, nuk arrit\u00ebn t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb mjaftuesh\u00ebm n\u00eb sjelljen e aktor\u00ebve sektar\u00eb n\u00eb Liban gjat\u00eb ekspedit\u00ebs s\u00eb saj atje. SHBA-ja nuk ia doli t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb politik\u00ebn e jashtme iraniane, edhe pas dekadave t\u00eb rrethimit ushtarak.<\/p>\n

Edhe pasi korr\u00ebn ndoshta fitoren m\u00eb posht\u00ebruese dhe vendimtare ushtarake n\u00eb historin\u00eb moderne, ushtar\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb shikonin p\u00ebrtej kufirit, teksa Sadami e sfidonte Uashingtonin dhe shtypte me eg\u00ebrsi n\u00eb kryengritjet kurde dhe shiite n\u00eb vend.<\/p>\n

Koncepti se SHBA-ja mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb kontrollin e saj n\u00eb veri, p\u00ebr t\u00eb form\u00ebsuar shtetin sirian t\u00eb pasluft\u00ebs, dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb d\u00ebbuar prej andej Iranin, ka qen\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb teorik, dhe pa nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb zbatim. N\u00eb fakt, shum\u00eb nga forcat q\u00eb cil\u00ebsohen si t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetura nga Irani, p\u00ebrb\u00ebhen nga qytetar\u00eb sirian\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Ku do t\u00eb d\u00ebboheshin k\u00ebta? M\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa, Damasku dhe aleat\u00ebt e saj do t\u00eb punojn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb vendit, duke pritur largimin e Amerik\u00ebs. Fakti i thjesht\u00eb q\u00eb ka qen\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktues p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb konfliktit, \u00ebsht\u00eb se vendet si Irani dhe Rusia, kan\u00eb interesa m\u00eb jetike n\u00eb Siri se sa nj\u00eb superfuqi e larg\u00ebt.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb tjer\u00eb argumentuan se \u201cstrategjia e t\u00ebrheqjes\u201d nga Siria, si\u00e7 u shpreh Dejvid Sanger i \u201cThe Ne\u00eb York Times\u201d, do t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb n\u00eb kaos dhe terroriz\u00ebm, ashtu si\u00e7 ndodhi me t\u00ebrheqjen e SHBA-s\u00eb nga Iraku. Duke p\u00ebrmendur pjes\u00eb t\u00eb strategjis\u00eb s\u00eb administrat\u00ebs Bush, Sanger pohoi se \u201cforcat e dislokuara n\u00eb rajon, jan\u00eb thelb\u00ebsore p\u00ebr t\u00eb penguar terrorist\u00ebt t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb brigjet amerikane\u201d.<\/p>\n

Gjenerali n\u00eb pension, Xhon Alen, president i Institutit Brukings, argumentoi se \u201cudh\u00ebheqja globale e SHBA-s\u00eb dhe aty ku \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme, forcat e saj, jan\u00eb t\u00eb nevojshme n\u00eb territoret e ndikuara nga ISIS-i n\u00eb Azi dhe Afrik\u00eb, \u201cderi kur t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur ideja e kalifatit\u201d.<\/p>\n

ISIS-i u mposht shpejt, sepse iluzioni mesianik i shtet-nd\u00ebrtimit, e ka privuar at\u00eb nga fleksibiliteti strategjik. Duke qene t\u00eb detyruara t\u00eb mbronin pozicione fikse, forcat e saj nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrqendroheshin n\u00eb llojin e strategjive asimetrike, q\u00eb ishin aq efektive p\u00ebr aktor\u00ebt jo-shtet\u00ebror\u00eb n\u00eb rajon.<\/p>\n

Ajo q\u00eb mbetet nga ISIS-it, e ka b\u00ebr\u00eb tashm\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb se nuk do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin gabim. Por pushtimi ushtarak amerikan, i pacaktuar n\u00eb koh\u00eb, i Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb antidot i thjesht\u00eb ndaj aksionit militant anti-SHBA apo kaosit. N\u00eb fakt, indet lidh\u00ebse mes shum\u00eb aktor\u00ebve jo-shtet\u00ebror\u00eb, jan\u00eb nj\u00eb opozit\u00eb agresive ndaj ndikimit ose pranis\u00eb ushtarake direkte ose indirekte t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, apo aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb saj kryesor\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb grupim i ndrysh\u00ebm aktor\u00ebsh jo shtet\u00ebror\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Hezbollahun, taleban\u00ebt dhe Al-Kaed\u00ebn n\u00eb Irak jan\u00eb forcuar, ose jan\u00eb rithemeluar edhe n\u00ebn hund\u00ebn e ushtar\u00ebve dhe marinsave amerikan\u00eb. N\u00eb fakt, arab\u00ebt sunit\u00eb t\u00eb Siris\u00eb s\u00eb veriut, po vuajn\u00eb n\u00ebn sundimin e ashp\u00ebr kurd n\u00ebn grancin\u00eb e Amerik\u00ebs, madje edhe nj\u00eb \u201cspastrim etnik\u201d. Dhe vazhdimi afatgjat\u00eb i k\u00ebtij trendi, do t\u00eb sjell\u00eb probleme.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb nga kritikat e cituara, ishte se ishte nj\u00eb tradh\u00ebti ndaj grupimit kurd. \u201cPer\u00ebndimi u ka atyre nj\u00eb borxh, p\u00ebr koston q\u00eb kan\u00eb paguar\u201d- thuhet nd\u00ebr t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb nj\u00eb opinion n\u00eb \u201c\u00cball Street Journal\u201d . Por marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnia sponsor-klient \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb thelb me dy kahe; ajo formohet p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb p\u00ebrputhjes s\u00eb interesave.<\/p>\n

Kurd\u00ebt luftuan kund\u00ebr ISIS-it, pasi ai p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim ekzistencial p\u00ebr komunitetet e tyre, dhe jo si shprehje e besnik\u00ebris\u00eb ndaj Amerik\u00ebs. ISIS dikur i zboi kurd\u00ebt sirian\u00eb deri n\u00eb kufirin turk, dhe n\u00eb Irak ata ishin shum\u00eb pran\u00eb pushtimit s\u00eb Erbilit.<\/p>\n

Por kurd\u00ebt po bisedojn\u00eb tashm\u00eb me Damaskun p\u00ebr riintegrim, dhe kan\u00eb shmangur p\u00ebrleshjen me forcat siriane gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb konfliktit, duke e ditur se opsioni i tyre i vet\u00ebm i mundsh\u00ebm do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb \u2018modus vivendi\u2019 me qeverin\u00eb. Amerika ruan ende nj\u00eb prani t\u00eb madhe ushtarake n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin, dhe mund t\u2019i ndihmoj\u00eb ata q\u00eb do t\u00eb luftojn\u00eb ISIS-in, n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb m\u00eb pak nd\u00ebrhyr\u00ebse.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse lihen m\u00ebnjan\u00eb pretendimet specifike, lodhja me pushtimet tok\u00ebsore n\u00eb Azi, \u00ebsht\u00eb e pranishme n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb spektrin politik amerikan, dhe n\u00eb fakt \u00ebsht\u00eb disi m\u00eb i fort\u00eb jasht\u00eb baz\u00ebs s\u00eb votuesve republikan\u00eb. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, pse opinioni publik t\u00eb mos jet\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor n\u00eb vendimmarrjen ushtarake amerikane?<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb arsyesh, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb aft\u00ebsia e saj ushtarake dhe vendndodhja gjeografike providenciale, Amerika p\u00ebrballet me pak k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime ekzistenciale, dhe prandaj mund t\u00eb zgjedh\u00eb midis nj\u00eb spektri alternativash, se si t\u00eb adresohen interesat dhe sfidat e siguris\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb pushtim de fakto i nj\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebs s\u00eb territorit sirian, nuk ka qen\u00eb kurr\u00eb i vetmi kurs i qart\u00eb veprimi. Nj\u00eb linj\u00eb kritike m\u00eb e arsyeshme, e p\u00ebrq\u00ebndruar n\u00eb planet fillestare t\u00eb t\u00ebrheqjes, ishte shum\u00eb e nxituar, dhe nuk kishte udh\u00ebzime strategjike. Kritik\u00ebt argumentojn\u00eb, se t\u00ebrheqja duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb graduale, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00ebsoj\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatjen e aleat\u00ebve dhe planifikimin e aksioneve anti-terroriz\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb thuhet se cila do t\u00eb jet\u00eb politika e Amerik\u00ebs n\u00eb Siri dhe kur, n\u00ebse do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, do t\u00eb largohen forcat amerikane. Por, \u00e7do politik\u00eb ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb jo-optimale, n\u00ebse nuk m\u00ebsohet leksionet e historis\u00eb s\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjes ushtarake amerikane n\u00eb rajon.<\/p>\n

Sh\u00ebnim: Alireza Ahmadi \u00ebsht\u00eb studiues dhe analist i fokusuar n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e jashtme t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb ndaj Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme.<\/p>\n

National Interest \u2013 Bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga Alireza Ahmadi Me njoftimin befasues t\u00eb t\u00ebrheqjes s\u00eb forcave amerikane nga Siria, dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb mas\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl, shpalljen e nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqjeje t\u00eb rreth 7.000 trupave amerikane nga Afganistani, shum\u00eb kritik\u00eb intervecionist\u00eb q\u00eb kishin toleruar sulmet e paefektshme t\u00eb Donald Trumpit kund\u00ebr Asadit dhe bisedimet e paqes me taleban\u00ebt, u t\u00ebrbuan nga inati. 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