Nga Marco Valli<\/p>\n
Pas rritjes s\u00eb fort\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb vitit 2017, dhe ngadal\u00ebsimit t\u00eb vitit 2018, rritja ekonomike globale pritet t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb moderuar n\u00eb vitin 2019, me norma \u00a0rreth 3.4 p\u00ebr qind, krahasuar me 3.6 p\u00ebr qind q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb aktualisht, dhe me r\u00ebnie t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj norme n\u00eb vitin 2020, n\u00ebn 3 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n
Ekonomia amerikane, do t\u00eb luaj\u00eb nj\u00eb rol t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsimin e rritjes globale, duke pasur parasysh faz\u00ebn e zgjatur t\u00eb ekspansionit, m\u00eb e gjata e regjistruar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, dhe fundin e paralajm\u00ebruar t\u00eb stimulit fiskal, i cili mund t\u00eb zbuloj\u00eb dob\u00ebsin\u00eb e bazave themelore.<\/p>\n
Por gradualisht do t\u00eb shfaqen probleme, \u00e7ka do t\u2019i lejoj\u00eb Rezerv\u00ebs Federale, t\u00eb rrit\u00eb normat e interesit gjat\u00eb pjes\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit, dhe pastaj t\u00eb pres\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar zhvillimet. Faktori m\u00eb i lart\u00eb i rrezikut p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb amerikane, \u00ebsht\u00eb bilanci i korporatave, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb mekanizmave ndikues, dhe nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb vazhdueshme t\u00eb kostos s\u00eb rifinancimit t\u00eb borxhit, edhe pse kjo mbetet gjithnj\u00eb n\u00ebn mesataret afatgjata.<\/p>\n
Ve\u00e7 k\u00ebsaj, kompanit\u00eb kan\u00eb fituar aksione t\u00eb m\u00ebdha komb\u00ebtare, dhe kjo mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb kurriz t\u00eb flukseve t\u00eb mjeteve monetare, pasi ngadal\u00ebsimi ekonomik, mund t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn e kapitalit, duke p\u00ebrforcuar turbulenc\u00ebn e tregut financiar t\u00eb shkaktuar nga nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie e fitimit. Faktor\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb n\u00eb dob\u00ebsimin e perspektivave t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike n\u00eb SHBA:mungesa e krahut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, dhe nj\u00eb ambjent m\u00eb pak favorizues ndaj rritjes, i stimuluar nga proteksionizmi.<\/p>\n
Deri tani, masat e k\u00ebsaj t\u00eb fundit, nuk kan\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb ndonj\u00eb ndikim t\u00eb madh n\u00eb flukset tregtare, por pasiguria e lidhur me ta, tashm\u00eb ka filluar t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb negativisht n\u00eb besimin e biznesit, duke zbehur perspektivat p\u00ebr investime me norm\u00eb fikse, si n\u00eb SHBA ashtu edhe jasht\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n
Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, p\u00ebr kompanit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ekspozuara ndaj goditjeve ekonomike, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mekanizmave t\u00eb tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj ndikues. N\u00ebse do t\u00eb ndodhte cikli ekonomik, gjasat q\u00eb SHBA t\u00eb hyj\u00eb n\u00eb recesion ndoshta q\u00eb vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm, do t\u00eb rriten. Nj\u00eb recesion i mundsh\u00ebm ndoshta do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i but\u00eb, i ngjash\u00ebm me at\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2001, por i mjaftuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxitur FED-in p\u00ebr t\u00eb filluar t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit.<\/p>\n
Me ngadal\u00ebsimin e ekonomis\u00eb amerikane, dhe pastaj hyrjen e saj n\u00eb recesion, do t\u00eb nis\u00eb t\u00eb vuaj\u00eb edhe tregtia globale, dhe nga kjo v\u00ebshtir\u00eb se mund t\u00eb shp\u00ebtoj\u00eb eurozona, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb vitin 2020. Por nj\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim n\u00eb bazat ekonomike t\u00eb brendshme, mund t\u00eb zbut\u00eb efektet e ngadal\u00ebsimit ekonomik n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb an\u00eb t\u00eb Atlantikut.<\/p>\n
Ngopja e tregut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb, e arritur n\u00eb vitet e fundit, do t\u00eb nxis\u00eb m\u00eb n\u00eb fund reformimin e sistemit t\u00eb pagave, me norm\u00ebn e rritjes nominale t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave familjare, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00a0gati t\u00eb mb\u00ebrrij\u00eb nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb. \u00c7do ngdal\u00ebsim n\u00eb 3-mujor\u00ebt e ardhsh\u00ebm, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb dob\u00ebsimit t\u00eb perspektivave t\u00eb pun\u00ebsimit, do t\u00eb kompensohet ndoshta nga nj\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsim i inflacionit, duke e mbajtur fuqin\u00eb bler\u00ebse n\u00eb nj\u00eb trajektore t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb moderuar.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, nga pik\u00ebpamja e buxheteve, familjet n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb mund t\u00eb cil\u00ebsohen financiarisht t\u00eb shendetshme. Pavar\u00ebsisht nga rritja e kredive t\u00eb komsumit, barra e tyre e borxhit mbetet e ul\u00ebt n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb vendeve.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fush\u00ebn e investimeve, eurozona ka nj\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt p\u00ebr investime fikse, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb sektorin e nd\u00ebrtimit. Kjo p\u00ebr shkak se cikli ekonomik n\u00eb zon\u00ebn e euros, \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb faz\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb maturuar se ai n\u00eb SHBA. Me nj\u00eb pabarazi t\u00eb madhe midis vendeve, bilancet e kompanive nuk jan\u00eb aq t\u00eb fuqishme sa ato t\u00eb familjeve, edhe pse ato jan\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar, si kompanit\u00eb e vendeve t\u00eb goditura nga kriza e borxhit sovran q\u00eb kan\u00eb rritur rezervat likuide, si dhe kan\u00eb diversifikuar burimet e financimit. Kjo duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb forcuar elasticitetin e tyre ndaj goditjeve financiare, edhe n\u00ebse mbeten disa zona t\u00eb prekshme.<\/p>\n
Hap\u00ebsira e manovrimit t\u00eb BQE-s\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb normalizuar politikat e saj t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit, mund t\u00eb mbyllet me shpejt\u00ebsi brenda nj\u00eb viti. Sipas mendimit ton\u00eb, BQE mund t\u00eb rris\u00eb disi nivelin e depozitave n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit 2020, p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpres\u00eb planet e tij t\u00eb kufizimit t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb ekonomia e Kin\u00ebs, do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsoj\u00eb gjat\u00eb 2 viteve t\u00eb ardhshme. Tranzicioni i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb i Pekinit, nga nj\u00eb model i rritjes s\u00eb shpejt\u00ebsis\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, drejt nj\u00eb modeli t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb shtuar, po eliminon ngadal\u00eb nxit\u00ebsit kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb rritjes, duke frenuar rritjen e kredis\u00eb, dhe duke zgjeruar rolin e forcave t\u00eb tregut, n\u00eb kurriz t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshirjes s\u00eb shtetit.<\/p>\n
Pritet q\u00eb autoritetet kineze, t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb zbatim instrumenta fiskale, dhe japin m\u00eb shum\u00eb kredi p\u00ebr t\u00eb parandaluar r\u00ebnien e shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike. Ngadal\u00ebsimi ciklik n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e p\u00ebrparuara, dhe shtr\u00ebngimi i m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm i kushteve financiare, do t\u00eb penalizoj\u00eb tregjet n\u00eb zhvillim.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse investitor\u00ebt do t\u00eb detyrohen t\u00eb ulin m\u00eb tej flukset e investimeve, disa prej k\u00ebtyre vendeve mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin ndihm\u00ebn financiare nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Kjo do t\u00eb rriste gjasat e nj\u00eb dukurie ngjit\u00ebse, edhe n\u00ebse nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb q\u00eb i prek t\u00eb gjitha n\u00eb tregjet n\u00eb zhvillim, mbetet e pamundur.<\/p>\n
Kur FED-i n\u00eb SHBA t\u00eb nis\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit, tregjet n\u00eb zhvillim mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb prej saj, por nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb n\u00ebse kjo do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mjaftueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb kompensuar ngadal\u00ebsimin e shkaktuar nga r\u00ebnia e flukseve tregtare globale, dhe rritja e rreziqeve n\u00eb tregjet financiare.<\/p>\n
Ekzistojn\u00eb disa rreziqe q\u00eb nderen mbi perspektivat makroekonomike, shumica e t\u00eb cilave nuk varen vet\u00ebm nga faktor\u00ebt ekonomik\u00eb dhe financiar\u00eb, por nga vendimet e k\u00ebqija politike. K\u00ebtu p\u00ebrfshihet, nj\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzim i mundsh\u00ebm i tensioneve tregtare SHBA-Kin\u00eb, mungesa e marr\u00ebveshjes mes BE dhe Britanis\u00eb mbi Brexit, nj\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsim i problemeve ekonomike n\u00eb Itali (me nj\u00eb ndikim negativ n\u00eb vendet e tjera t\u00eb eurozon\u00ebs), dhe e fundit por jo m\u00eb pak e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme, nj\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsim m\u00eb i madh i rritjes ekonomike n\u00eb Kin\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201ceastwest.eu\u201d \u2013 Bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nga Marco Valli Pas rritjes s\u00eb fort\u00eb ekonomike t\u00eb vitit 2017, dhe ngadal\u00ebsimit t\u00eb vitit 2018, rritja ekonomike globale pritet t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb moderuar n\u00eb vitin 2019, me norma \u00a0rreth 3.4 p\u00ebr qind, krahasuar me 3.6 p\u00ebr qind q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb aktualisht, dhe me r\u00ebnie t\u00eb m\u00ebtejshme t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj norme n\u00eb vitin 2020, n\u00ebn […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,3,21],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n