{"id":23358,"date":"2020-07-07T18:39:14","date_gmt":"2020-07-07T16:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=23358"},"modified":"2020-07-07T18:39:14","modified_gmt":"2020-07-07T16:39:14","slug":"plaget-e-covid-19-mund-te-zbehen-me-shpejt-se-sa-mendojme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=23358","title":{"rendered":"Plag\u00ebt e Covid-19 mund t\u00eb zbehen, m\u00eb shpejt se sa mendojm\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nga Tim Harford<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bulmetorja n\u00eb lagjen time, pasi u ri-p\u00ebrshtat si nj\u00eb dyqan produktesh t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme, ka qen\u00eb e hapur gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb karantin\u00ebs. Pronari m\u00eb thot\u00eb se ka nisur t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb di\u00e7ka e \u00e7uditshme dhe nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht e re.<\/p>\n

Konsumator\u00ebt q\u00eb ai nuk i kishte par\u00eb q\u00eb nga muaji mars, pra ata q\u00eb mbrohen me m\u00eb zell nga kontakti njer\u00ebzor, m\u00eb n\u00eb fund jan\u00eb rishfaqur. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, thot\u00eb ai, ata nuk m\u00eb kujdes p\u00ebr ndonj\u00eb lloj distancimi fizik.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrderisa pjesa tjet\u00ebr prej nesh e kan\u00eb respektuar k\u00ebt\u00eb mas\u00eb gjat\u00eb 15 jav\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit, ata nuk kan\u00eb asnj\u00eb ide si t\u00eb sillen n\u00eb mjedise publike. Por, n\u00eb fakt a kemi ndonj\u00eb ide m\u00eb t\u00eb sakt\u00eb ne t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt? T\u00eb gjith\u00eb po p\u00ebrpiqemi ende q\u00eb ta zbulojm\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Disa njer\u00ebz pyesin rreth p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb maskave, m\u00ebnyr\u00ebs se si t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb kur teshtitin n\u00eb publik, mbi shtr\u00ebngimin e duarve. T\u00eb tjer\u00ebt jan\u00eb paranojak\u00eb:\u201dQ\u00ebndro 2 metra larg meje! Dil jasht\u00eb, aty n\u00eb rrug\u00eb!\u201d, pash\u00eb nj\u00eb zot\u00ebri me mask\u00eb t\u2019i ul\u00ebrinte nj\u00eb gruaje t\u00eb hutuar.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kujtes\u00eb se mbi k\u00ebt\u00eb pandemi ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb, sesa thjesht ato q\u00eb na thon\u00eb qeverit\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb. Secili prej nesh ka ndjenjat e veta mbi at\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e sigurt. K\u00ebto emocione, kan\u00eb formuar kurb\u00ebn e pandemis\u00eb. Ato do t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktojn\u00eb edhe rrug\u00ebn e rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjes.<\/p>\n

Konsideroni pak ndikimin e masave bllokuese. Ka nj\u00eb konsensus t\u00eb gjer\u00eb, se ato kan\u00eb qen\u00eb vendimtare n\u00eb frenimin e p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb s\u00ebmundjes, por ato nuk kan\u00eb qen\u00eb faktori i vet\u00ebm. Larja e duarve, shmangia e sht\u00ebrngimit t\u00eb duarve, dhe puna nga sht\u00ebpia filloi shum\u00eb koh\u00eb zbatimit t\u00eb masave ligjore.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb studim i ekonomist\u00ebve Otsna Gulsbi dhe \u00c7ad Siverson, p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb ndaj\u00eb efektin e masave t\u00eb detyrueshme nga ato vullnetare n\u00eb SHBA. P\u00ebr shembull, shteti i Ilinoisit i vendosi kufizimet para se k\u00ebt\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebnte Uiskonsin.<\/p>\n

Studiuesit shqyrtuan aktivitetin n\u00eb secil\u00ebn an\u00eb t\u00eb kufijve, duke p\u00ebrdorur t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e telefonave celular\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjurmuar udh\u00ebtimet e njer\u00ebzve t\u00eb zakonsh\u00ebm n\u00eb dyqane dhe biznese t\u00eb tjera. Ata ishin n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb merrnin shum\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna, mbi at\u00eb se sa mbyllja ishte e vullnetshme.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrgjigja:\u00e7udit\u00ebrisht shum\u00eb. \u201cTrafiku total i k\u00ebmb\u00ebsor\u00ebve ra m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 60 p\u00ebr qind. Dhe kufizimet me ligj, shpjegojn\u00eb vet\u00ebm rreth 7 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb k\u00ebtij niveli\u201d- shkruajn\u00eb ata.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb mesazh i ngjash\u00ebm vjen nga nj\u00eb krahasim i Danimark\u00ebs, q\u00eb vendosi masa shum\u00eb t\u00eb ashpra kufizuese, me Suedin\u00eb, q\u00eb pati nj\u00eb qasje me liberale, e cila rezultoi m\u00eb pas n\u00eb katastrofike. Shpenzimet totale ran\u00eb me 29 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb Danimark\u00eb, dhe 25 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb Suedi.<\/p>\n

Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se masat vullnetare i kan\u00eb shkaktuar shum\u00eb d\u00ebme ekonomis\u00eb, dhe shpresojm\u00eb nga ana tjet\u00ebr t\u2019i ken\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebrfitime sh\u00ebndetit publik. Nuk do t\u00eb ndalem shum\u00eb tek sakt\u00ebsia e shifrave, por mesazhi themelor q\u00eb ato japin \u00ebsht\u00eb dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Njer\u00ebzit nuk u mbyll\u00ebn n\u00eb sht\u00ebpit\u00eb e tyre, vet\u00ebm se k\u00ebshtu u than\u00eb qeverit\u00eb. Tani \u00e7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb:vet\u00ebm sepse b\u00ebrja pazar n\u00eb dyqane \u00ebsht\u00eb s\u00ebrish e ligjshme, kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se njer\u00ebzit do t\u00eb nxitojn\u00eb me vrap drejt dyqane. N\u00eb fakt, n\u00eb Gjermani ndodhi pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebshtu.<\/p>\n

Gjerman\u00ebt shpenzuan m\u00eb shum\u00eb para n\u00eb majin e k\u00ebtij viti, sesa n\u00eb majin e 2019-\u00ebs, gj\u00eb q\u00eb sugjeron se ata ishin t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm jo vet\u00ebm t\u00eb shkonin t\u00eb psonisnin n\u00ebp\u00ebr dyqane, por donin t\u00eb fitonin edhe koh\u00ebn e humbur. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka inkurajuese, por vet\u00ebm deri n\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Sipas standarteve per\u00ebndimore, Gjermania p\u00ebrjetoi nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb but\u00eb nga Covid-19, me m\u00eb pak se 10.000 t\u00eb vdekur, krahasuar me 25.000 n\u00eb Franc\u00eb, afro 50.000 n\u00eb Itali dhe Spanj\u00eb, dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 65.000 n\u00eb Britanin\u00eb e Madhe.<\/p>\n

Shtetet e Bashkuara, kan\u00eb aktualisht rreth 100 her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb raste t\u00eb reja t\u00eb p\u00ebrditshme sesa Gjermania. Ndoshta gjerman\u00ebt ndjehen t\u00eb sigurt, pasi n\u00eb fakt ata jan\u00eb t\u00eb sigurt. Por jo t\u00eb gjith\u00eb mund ta thon\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb gj\u00eb. Pasi virusi t\u00eb ndalet, at\u00ebher\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur nj\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbje e fort\u00eb. Por a mund t\u00eb l\u00ebr\u00eb kjo p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb e hidhur plag\u00eb t\u00eb thella n\u00eb vet\u00ebdijen ton\u00eb kolektive?<\/p>\n

Ndoshta po. Ekonomistja Ulrike Malmendier, ka botuar disa studime q\u00eb sugjerojn\u00eb se p\u00ebrvojat tona t\u00eb hershme ekonomike, mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb ndikuese t\u00eb sjelljeve tona t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme m\u00eb von\u00eb. N\u00ebse tregu i aksioneve n\u00eb bursa \u00ebsht\u00eb i dob\u00ebt kur jemi t\u00eb rinj, ne priremi t\u2019i largohemi p\u00ebrgjithnj\u00eb investimit n\u00eb to.<\/p>\n

Ngjash\u00ebm, lig\u00ebsia apo mir\u00ebsia e an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb Komitetit Federal t\u00eb Tregut t\u00eb Hapur n\u00eb Nju Jork, ndikohet shum\u00eb nga p\u00ebrvoja e tyre personale me inflacionin. Nj\u00eb studim i ri i Malmendier dhe Lezli Shen sugjeron se recesionet ekonomike, ndikojn\u00eb shum\u00eb tek sjellja e konsumatorit, madje edhe shum\u00eb koh\u00eb pasi ato kan\u00eb kaluar.<\/p>\n

Pasojat e m\u00ebvonshme, p\u00ebrshkruhen mjaft mir\u00eb si \u201ckurnac\u00ebri e shkaktuar nga p\u00ebrvoja\u201d- dometh\u00ebn\u00eb, njer\u00ebzit q\u00eb kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar periudha t\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb madhe, kursejn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb dhe grumbullojn\u00eb n\u00eb shum\u00eb pasuri, pasi nuk i dihet se si vijn\u00eb pun\u00ebt.<\/p>\n

Sigurisht nj\u00eb kapital i till\u00eb i grumbulluar, mund t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb investime. \u00a0Por nj\u00eb studim i fundit nga Xhulian Kozlovski, Laura Veldkamp dhe Venki Venkatesuaran, argumenton t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt\u00ebn. Ata pohojn\u00eb se plaga psikologjike \u00ebsht\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruese, pasi nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim i gjall\u00eb i skenar\u00ebve katastrofik\u00eb, do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb q\u00eb njer\u00ebzit t\u00eb ken\u00eb frik\u00eb t\u00eb kryejn\u00eb investime t\u00eb guximshme.<\/p>\n

E pse t\u00eb rrezikohet kot n\u00eb nj\u00eb univers kapri\u00e7ioz? Pyes veten. Natyrisht, ne njer\u00ebzit m\u00ebsojm\u00eb nga p\u00ebrvojat e hidhura. Por ne gjithashtu kemi nj\u00eb talent t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr t\u2019i harruar ato. N\u00eb ve\u00e7anti, ne harrojm\u00eb se si ndihen gj\u00ebrat e k\u00ebqija. Pandemia do t\u00eb mbahet mend gjat\u00eb, por dhimbja q\u00eb ajo po shkakton sot, do t\u00eb zbehet me kalimin e koh\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Pas uraganit Katrina n\u00eb SHBA, Programi Komb\u00ebtar i Sigurimeve nga P\u00ebrmbytjet, p\u00ebrjetoi nj\u00eb bum k\u00ebrkesash. Por 3 vjet m\u00eb von\u00eb, k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr sigurimin e banesave nga p\u00ebr p\u00ebrmbytjet, ra n\u00eb nivelet e para katastrof\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Hamendja ime \u00ebsht\u00eb se statisticien\u00ebt e zgjuar, do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb zbulojn\u00eb pasojat psikologjike t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb p\u00ebr dekadat n\u00eb vazhdim. Por n\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim t\u00eb rast\u00ebsish\u00ebm, jeta e p\u00ebrditshme n\u00eb vitin 2022, do t\u2019i ngjaj\u00eb shum\u00eb asaj n\u00eb vitin 2018. Plag\u00ebt nuk sh\u00ebrohen gjithmon\u00eb, gjithsesi ato zbehen. \/ \u201cThe Financial Times\u201d \u2013 Bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga Tim Harford Bulmetorja n\u00eb lagjen time, pasi u ri-p\u00ebrshtat si nj\u00eb dyqan produktesh t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme, ka qen\u00eb e hapur gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb karantin\u00ebs. Pronari m\u00eb thot\u00eb se ka nisur t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb di\u00e7ka e \u00e7uditshme dhe nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht e re. Konsumator\u00ebt q\u00eb ai nuk i kishte par\u00eb q\u00eb nga muaji mars, pra ata q\u00eb mbrohen me m\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,3,20,21],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nPlag\u00ebt e Covid-19 mund t\u00eb zbehen, m\u00eb shpejt se sa mendojm\u00eb - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=23358\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Plag\u00ebt e Covid-19 mund t\u00eb zbehen, m\u00eb shpejt se sa mendojm\u00eb - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nga Tim Harford Bulmetorja n\u00eb lagjen time, pasi u ri-p\u00ebrshtat si nj\u00eb dyqan produktesh t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme, ka qen\u00eb e hapur gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb karantin\u00ebs. Pronari m\u00eb thot\u00eb se ka nisur t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb di\u00e7ka e \u00e7uditshme dhe nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht e re. 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