{"id":22306,"date":"2020-05-29T12:55:29","date_gmt":"2020-05-29T10:55:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=22306"},"modified":"2020-05-29T12:55:29","modified_gmt":"2020-05-29T10:55:29","slug":"deja-vu-nje-profeci-e-vjeter-per-nje-situate-te-re","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=22306","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e9j\u00e0 vu: Nj\u00eb profeci e vjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr nj\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb re"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nga Fatos Tarifa<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pjesa I<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u00eb 15 prill t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, revista\u00a0The Economist<\/em>, n\u00eb nj\u00eb rubrik\u00eb t\u00eb saj titulluar \u201cBota pas covid-19\u201d (The world after covid-19<\/em>), botoi nj\u00eb opinion t\u00eb diplomatit dhe studiuesit t\u00eb njohur nga Singapori, Kishore Mahbubani, i konsideruar si nj\u00eb \u201cglobal thinker\u201d. Si\u00e7 edhe prisja, autori merr shkas prej situat\u00ebs s\u00eb krijuar nga p\u00ebrhapja globale e virusit covid-19 p\u00ebr t\u00eb shtjelluar nj\u00eb teori t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ai e ka parashtruar edhe m\u00eb par\u00eb (pa qen\u00eb ai i pari) n\u00eb vitin 2008, n\u00eb librin\u00a0Hemisfera e re aziatike: Zhvendosja e parezistueshme e fuqis\u00eb globale drejt Lindjes<\/em>. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb lib\u00ebr, i cili u botua nj\u00eb vit pasi kandidatura e tij p\u00ebr postin e Sekretarit t\u00eb P\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb OKB-n\u00eb nuk gjeti asnj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje (s\u00eb pari n\u00eb Uashington), Mahbubani i revizionoi q\u00ebndrimet e tij t\u00eb m\u00ebparshme, publikisht t\u00eb njohura p\u00ebrmes shum\u00eb artikujve t\u00eb botuar prej tij n\u00eb vitet 1990 dhe n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb viteve 2000, p\u00ebr t\u00eb \u201cargumentuar\u201d se, tashm\u00eb, Shtetet e Bashkuara po e humbisnin rolin e fuqis\u00eb hegjemone t\u00eb globit dhe se k\u00ebt\u00eb rol, k\u00ebtej e tutje, do e luanin vendet e Azis\u00eb Lindore, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht Kina, e cila \u201cdo t\u2019i mar\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs mantelin e lidershipit global\u201d. Komenti i tij n\u00eb\u00a0The Economist<\/em>\u00a0mund t\u00eb konsiderohet nj\u00eb rast tipik\u00a0D\u00e9j\u00e0 vu<\/em>.<\/p>\n

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\u00c7far\u00eb thot\u00eb Mahbubani n\u00eb komentin e tij? Ai p\u00ebrs\u00ebrit me shum\u00eb zell nj\u00eb tez\u00eb t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr, at\u00eb se \u201cepoka e dominimit per\u00ebndimor po merr fund\u201d, dhe se \u201crizgjimi i Azis\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjet dhe n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale, q\u00eb kish nisur para fillimit t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb covid-19, do t\u00eb konsolidohet pas kriz\u00ebs me krijimin e nj\u00eb nj\u00eb rendi t\u00eb ri bot\u00ebror\u201d. Sipas tij, kjo pandemi mund t\u00eb sh\u00ebnoj\u00eb \u201cfillimin e shekullit aziatik\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u00c7far\u00eb ka ndryshuar, sipas tij me k\u00ebt\u00eb pandemi? Kriza q\u00eb solli ajo, thot\u00eb Mahbubani, d\u00ebshmoi dallimin e thell\u00eb q\u00eb ekziston mes qeverive per\u00ebndimore dhe atyre t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb Azis\u00eb Lindore \u201cjo thjesht n\u00eb kapacitetet mjeksore\u201d dhe n\u00eb reagimet e tyre ndaj k\u00ebsaj krize por, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht \u201cn\u00eb cil\u00ebsin\u00eb e qeverisjes\u201d. Nd\u00ebrsa gjysm\u00eb shekulli m\u00eb par\u00eb nj\u00eb pandemi si kjo do t\u00eb ishte menaxhuar mir\u00eb nga vendet per\u00ebndimore dhe do t\u00eb kishte shkaktuar mjaft vuajtje n\u00eb vendet n\u00eb zhvillim t\u00eb Azis\u00eb Lindore, sot, pohon Mahbubani, jan\u00eb k\u00ebta t\u00eb fundit q\u00eb kan\u00eb vendosur nj\u00eb \u201cstandard t\u00eb ri global\u201d n\u00eb cil\u00ebsin\u00eb e qeverisjes.<\/p>\n

Ky autor deklaron se bota q\u00eb do t\u00eb krijohet pas covid-19 do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e till\u00eb, ku vendet e tjer\u00eb do t\u00eb shohin tek Azia Lindore nj\u00eb \u201crol model\u201d jo vet\u00ebm se si t\u00eb menaxhojn\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb si kjo e sotmja, por, p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht, se si t\u00eb qeverisen. P\u00ebrball\u00eb \u201cdelegjitimimit t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm dhe demoralizimit t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimeve publike n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb\u201d, t\u00eb cilat \u201cpresidenti Trump i agravoi m\u00eb tej\u201d, ky autor deklaron se Kina\u2014dhe vendet e tjer\u00eb t\u00eb Azis\u00eb Lindore\u2014po d\u00ebshmojn\u00eb se, q\u00eb t\u00eb zhvillohet me sukses, nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri \u201cka nevoj\u00eb si p\u00ebr dor\u00ebn e padukshme t\u00eb tregut t\u00eb lir\u00eb, ashtu dhe p\u00ebr dor\u00ebn e dukshme t\u00eb nj\u00eb qeverie t\u00eb mir\u00eb\u201d, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe qeveria kineze, e cila, sipas tij, sot p\u00ebr sot \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201cqeveria m\u00eb meritokratike n\u00eb bot\u00eb\u201d. \u201cBalanca mes tregjeve t\u00eb fort\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb qeverie t\u00eb mir\u00eb\u201d, si\u00e7 d\u00ebshmon rasti i Kin\u00ebs, shkruan Mahbubani, do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb \u201cmodel josh\u00ebs p\u00ebr vendet e tjer\u00eb\u201d. Ai vijon m\u00eb tej: \u201cKina i kupton fare mir\u00eb rreziqet e nj\u00eb qeverie t\u00eb dob\u00ebt dhe, p\u00ebr shkak se psiqika kineze i trembet kaosit m\u00eb shum\u00eb se sa \u00e7do force tjet\u00ebr, populli [kinez] e mir\u00ebpret nj\u00eb shtet t\u00eb fort\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n

Pas k\u00ebtij qendrimi hapur apologjetik dhe n\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahje t\u00eb qeverisjes autoritariste t\u00eb partis\u00eb-shtet n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, Mahbubani vjen n\u00eb konkluzionin se, \u201caft\u00ebsit\u00eb dhe konfidenca e Azis\u00eb Lindore do ta rib\u00ebjn\u00eb rendin bot\u00ebror\u201d. Ai pohon se, pas kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb sotme, bota do t\u00eb shoh\u00eb \u201cnj\u00eb Per\u00ebndim t\u00eb hutuar dhe nj\u00eb Kin\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb guximshme\u201d. Madje, p\u00ebrfundon Muhbabani, \u201cparadoksalisht, nj\u00eb rend [i ri bot\u00ebror], i udh\u00ebhequr nga Kina, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb rend m\u00eb demokratik\u201d, pasi \u201cKina nuk synon q\u00eb ta eksportoj\u00eb modelin e saj; [ajo] mund t\u00eb jetoj\u00eb me nj\u00eb bot\u00eb shum\u00ebpolare diverse\u201d dhe, prandaj, \u201cshekulli i ardhsh\u00ebm aziatik nuk do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i pad\u00ebshiruar [as] p\u00ebr Per\u00ebndimin dhe p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs\u201d.<\/p>\n

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Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb me pak fjal\u00eb deduksioni q\u00eb Kishore Mahbubani i servir revist\u00ebs\u00a0The Economist<\/em>\u00a0si \u201cteorin\u00eb\u201d e tij p\u00ebr \u201cbot\u00ebn pas covid-19\u201d. Situata q\u00eb po kalon shoq\u00ebria e sotme nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e re (edhe pse pandemi globale shum\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme jan\u00eb njohur edhe m\u00eb par\u00eb), por \u201cteoria\u201d q\u00eb na servir ky autor \u00ebsht\u00eb e vjet\u00ebr. Un\u00eb d\u00ebshiroj ta kund\u00ebrshtoj autorin e saj, duke p\u00ebrs\u00ebritur, ndoshta, edhe ndonj\u00eb argument q\u00eb kam zhvilluar n\u00eb polemika t\u00eb ngjashme me autor\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb huaj, ose n\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtim me teori t\u00eb ngjashme me k\u00ebt\u00eb.<\/p>\n

E para gj\u00eb q\u00eb dua t\u00eb v\u00eb n\u00eb dukjse \u00ebsht\u00eb se edhe njer\u00ebzit m\u00eb t\u00eb talentuar dhe ekspert\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb shkencave shoq\u00ebrore e t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht gabojn\u00eb n\u00eb prognozat e tyre mbi zhvillimet e ardhshme, madje, shum\u00eb her\u00eb, jan\u00eb t\u00eb paaft\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb dallojn\u00eb edhe afrimin e ngjarjeve epokale, si\u00e7 ishte, fjala vjen, shembja e Bashkimit Sovjetik dhe p\u00ebrmbysja e rendit t\u00eb socializmit shtet\u00ebror n\u00eb at\u00eb vend dhe n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Lindore. Asnj\u00eb nga ekspert\u00ebt sovjetolog\u00eb, n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim dhe n\u00eb Lindje, nuk mundi ta parashikonte dot p\u00ebrmbysjen e atij sistemi dhe, sidomos, m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn paq\u00ebsore t\u00eb shembjes s\u00eb tij, jo vet\u00ebm n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 1980, por as edhe n\u00eb fund t\u00eb asaj dekade. Edhe akademik\u00eb nga m\u00eb t\u00eb shquarit, si historiani Richard Pipes n\u00eb Harvard, e quajt\u00ebn shembjen e komunizmit dhe shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrjen e bllokut sovjetik nj\u00eb ngjarje \u201ct\u00eb papritur\u201d. Martin Malia, nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr ekspert\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb njohur p\u00ebr Bashkimin Sovjetik dhe autor i librit t\u00eb famsh\u00ebm\u00a0Tragjedia sovjetike<\/em>, e konsideroi \u201cbefasin\u00eb dhe t\u00ebr\u00ebsin\u00eb\u201d e shembjes s\u00eb sistemit sovjetik si \u201csurpriz\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb 20-t\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb nj\u00eb artikull t\u00eb botuar disa vite m\u00eb par\u00eb, kam shkruar se, n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se studiuesit e shkencave shoq\u00ebrore dhe ata t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, me teorit\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat mb\u00ebshteten, nuk mund\u00ebn ta parashikonin dot shembjen e sistemit t\u00eb socializmit shtet\u00ebror, shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrjen e bllokut sovjetik dhe, bashk\u00eb me t\u00eb, shembjen e \u201cBot\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb\u201d, si mund t\u00eb pritet q\u00eb ata, t\u00eb \u201carmatosur\u201d me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat teori dhe metodologji, t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje q\u00eb t\u00eb parashikojn\u00eb ndryshimet n\u00eb nivel makroshoq\u00ebror, ose tendencat e zhvillimeve globale n\u00eb shoq\u00ebrin\u00eb e sotme apo ato t\u00eb nes\u00ebrme?<\/p>\n

Karl Popper vinte n\u00eb dukje se, kur nj\u00eb paradigm\u00eb nuk p\u00ebrputhet m\u00eb me realitetin, kur probleme \u201canormale\u201d i heqin nj\u00eb teorie aft\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019i shpjeguar ato, do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ka ardhur koha p\u00ebr t\u00eb adaptuar nj\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim i ri. P\u00ebr koh\u00ebn e sotme, n\u00ebse huazoj fjal\u00ebt e ekonomistit t\u00eb shquar amerikan Thomas Schelling, nevojitet \u201cnj\u00eb teori mbi antagonizmin e paplot\u00eb dhe mbi partneritetin e pap\u00ebrsosur\u201d p\u00ebr nj\u00eb bot\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00ebher\u00ebsh \u201cm\u00eb shum\u00eb asimetrike nga pik\u00ebpamja e perceptimeve dhe e pasioneve dhe m\u00eb pak asimetrike nga pik\u00ebpamja t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n

Ka shum\u00eb autor\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt, nj\u00eblloj si Mahbubani, nuk ngurojn\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb prognoza specifike mbi zhvillimet e ardhshme. Nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr ta, fjala vjen, George Friedman, n\u00eb librin e tij\u00a0Nj\u00ebqind vitet e ardhsh\u00ebm<\/em>, botuar m\u00eb 2009, parashikonte se, n\u00eb vitin 2020, pra pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, Kina do t\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebhej, se aty rreth vitit 2050 Shtetet e Bashkuara, Turqia, Polonia dhe Japonia do t\u00eb jen\u00eb fuqit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb planetit, t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshira n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb globale mes tyre, dhe se, n\u00eb fund t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb 21-t\u00eb, Meksika do ta sfidoj\u00eb Amerik\u00ebn. Pa as m\u00eb t\u00eb voglin hezitim, profeci t\u00eb tilla un\u00eb i quaj t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht\u00a0science fiction<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Ajo q\u00eb mund t\u00eb thuhet me\u00a0nj\u00eb far\u00eb<\/em>\u00a0sigurie \u00ebsht\u00eb se,\u00a0sot jetojm\u00eb n\u00eb fillimet e nj\u00eb epoke t\u00eb re historike, tipari themelor i t\u00eb cil\u00ebs ende nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb definuar<\/em>. Shum\u00eb intelektual\u00eb dhe studiues n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim po b\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb karrier\u00eb t\u00eb shk\u00eblqyer duke pretenduar se definicionet q\u00eb ata ofrojn\u00eb si, p\u00ebr shembull nj\u00eb \u201cbot\u00eb pa kufij\u201d, \u201cngritja e gjigand\u00ebve t\u00eb Azis\u00eb\u201d, \u201cbota postmoderne\u201d, \u201cbota pa Per\u00ebndimin\u201d etj., jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb sakt\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u00eb shprehur karakterin e epok\u00ebs s\u00eb re. T\u00eb njihesh me pretendimet e tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka e dobishme, sidomos n\u00ebse mbajm\u00eb parasysh historin\u00eb e d\u00ebshtimeve t\u00eb shum\u00eb intelektual\u00ebve t\u00eb njohur gjat\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb 20-t\u00eb n\u00eb parashikimin e kursit t\u00eb zhvillimit shoq\u00ebror n\u00eb plan global.<\/p>\n

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Vet\u00ebm gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtyre nj\u00ebzet\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit, ideja se \u201cshekulli amerikan\u201d ka mbaruar dhe se Kina, Bashkimi Europian ose ndonj\u00eb fuqi tjet\u00ebr e madhe do t\u2019i z\u00ebr\u00eb vendin Amerik\u00ebs si fuqia hegjemone e globit \u00ebsht\u00eb shtjelluar n\u00eb qindra libra dhe n\u00eb mij\u00ebra artikuj t\u00eb botuar n\u00eb revista akademike. T\u00eb shumt\u00eb jan\u00eb librat q\u00eb parashikojn\u00eb dhe p\u00ebrshkruajn\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb \u201cpost-amerikane\u201d, shum\u00ebpolare, si rezultat i r\u00ebnies s\u00eb fuqis\u00eb amerikane. Disa prej titujve t\u00eb botuar vitet e fundit, madje edhe n\u00eb vet\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, d\u00ebshmojn\u00eb se ideja mbi shekullin e 21-t\u00eb \u201cpost-amerikan\u201d \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur si nj\u00eb epidemi nd\u00ebr intelektual\u00ebt e sot\u00ebm. Tituj t\u00eb till\u00eb jan\u00eb:\u00a0Fundi i epok\u00ebs amerikane<\/em>,\u00a0Pse Europa do t\u00eb sundoj\u00eb shekullin e 21-t\u00eb<\/em>,\u00a0Fuqizimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb sfiduar: strategjia e madhe e Kin\u00ebs dhe siguria nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare<\/em>,\u00a0Bota post-amerikane<\/em>,\u00a0Shtetet e Bashkuara t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs: Superfuqia e re dhe fundi i supremacis\u00eb amerikane<\/em>,\u00a0Kufijt\u00eb e fuqis\u00eb: fundi i eksepcionalizmit amerikan<\/em>,\u00a0Pas perandoris\u00eb: lindja e nj\u00eb bote shum\u00ebpolare<\/em>,\u00a0Fundi i rendit bot\u00ebror amerikan<\/em>\u00a0e shum\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u habitur se si, n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare e t\u00eb politik\u00ebs globale, nisur nga disa zhvillime t\u00eb dit\u00ebs, edhe pse t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme, mund t\u00eb krijohet kaq leht\u00eb bindja se struktura e k\u00ebtyre marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve dhe prirjet e politik\u00ebs globale mund t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb brenda nj\u00eb periudhe relativisht t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr. Sidoqoft\u00eb, duhet theksuar se pik\u00ebpamja e sotme mbi r\u00ebnien e supremacis\u00eb amerikane n\u00eb politik\u00ebn globale, sidomos tani, n\u00eb kushtet e kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb krijuar nga pandemia covid-19, si\u00e7 p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb argumentoj\u00eb Mahbubani, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka e re. M\u00eb posht\u00eb, un\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqem t\u00eb argumentoj pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebt\u00eb.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Shekulli i 20-t\u00eb ka d\u00ebshmuar shum\u00eb her\u00eb se sa e mundur \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb edhe ntelektual\u00eb nga m\u00eb t\u00eb shquarit t\u00eb gabojn\u00eb n\u00eb parashikimet e tyre p\u00ebr zhvillimet e ardhshme globale. Miopia e tyre n\u00eb ndonj\u00eb rast \u00ebsht\u00eb e habitshme. Fjala vjen, n\u00eb villim t\u00eb viteve 1910, Norman Angell, n\u00eb librin e tij\u00a0Iluzioni i madh<\/em>\u00a0(The Great Illusion<\/em>), besonte lufta ishte b\u00ebr\u00eb tashm\u00eb nj\u00eb fenomen q\u00eb i prkiste s\u00eb shkuar\u00ebs dhe se forcat e kapitalizmit\u2014teknologjia, tregtia e lir\u00eb dhe racionalizmi liberal\u2014po krijonin nj\u00eb bot\u00eb paq\u00ebsore, pa kufij dhe pa luft\u00eb. Vet\u00ebm pak muaj m\u00eb von\u00eb, kur Europa u b\u00eb aren\u00eb e nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjakshme, e para luft\u00eb bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb histori, u provua se optimizmi i k\u00ebtij intelektuali nuk kishte asnj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje n\u00eb realitetin shoq\u00ebror t\u00eb koh\u00ebs, edhe pse kjo nuk e pengoi at\u00eb q\u00eb, n\u00eb vitin 1933, t\u00eb merrte \u00c7mimin Nobel p\u00ebr Paqe.<\/p>\n

Po k\u00ebshtu, Depresioni i Madh i viteve 1930 krijoi te shum\u00eb intelektual\u00eb europian\u00eb bindjen se kapitalizmi dhe liberalizmi po jetonin dit\u00ebt e tyre t\u00eb fundit, se ky sistem \u201ci d\u00ebshtuar\u201d po \u201cvet\u00ebshkat\u00ebrrohej\u201d p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb \u201ckontradiktave t\u00eb tij t\u00eb brendshme\u201d dhe se ai do t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsohej nga nj\u00eb \u201cluft\u00eb p\u00ebr pushtet q\u00eb po afrohej\u201d (The Coming Struggle for Power<\/em>), n\u00ebse p\u00ebrdor titullin e nj\u00ebrit prej librave m\u00eb me influenc\u00eb n\u00eb vitet 1930, shkruar nga John Strachey, me \u00e7ka ai kuptonte nj\u00eb luft\u00eb p\u00ebr jet\u00eb a vdekje midis Fashizmit dhe Komunizmit. Kjo pik\u00ebpamje dominoi n\u00eb radh\u00ebt e intelektual\u00ebve europian\u00eb deri n\u00eb fundin e viteve 1940. M\u00eb 1945, p\u00ebr shembull, A.J.P. Taylor, nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr historian\u00ebt anglez\u00eb m\u00eb n\u00eb z\u00eb, i siguronte d\u00ebgjuesit e tij t\u00eb BBC-s\u00eb se \u201cAskush n\u00eb Europ\u00eb nuk beson m\u00eb n\u00eb modelin amerikan, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarrja e lir\u00eb private. N\u00ebse ka njer\u00ebz q\u00eb akoma besojn\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb, ata i p\u00ebrkasin nj\u00eb partie t\u00eb humbur\u201d. T\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto thuheshin n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur Per\u00ebndimi ishte n\u00eb vigjilje t\u00eb prosperitetit m\u00eb t\u00eb madh ekonomik q\u00eb kishte njohur deri at\u00ebher\u00eb historia e njer\u00ebzimit, prosperitet t\u00eb cilin e solli po ai sistem kapitalist q\u00eb intelektual\u00ebt europian\u00eb e konsideronin si nj\u00eb sistem n\u00eb kalb\u00ebzim e q\u00eb po jepte shpirt.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Edhe pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, kur Amerika u b\u00eb fuqia dominuese e globit, profecit\u00eb mbi\u00a0finis Americae<\/em>\u00a0jan\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritur thuajse \u00e7do dekad\u00eb. P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb, kjo ndodhi n\u00eb fundin e viteve 1950, kur Bashkimi Sovjetik l\u00ebshoi Sputnikun e vet n\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn kozmike dhe, me k\u00ebt\u00eb, u besua se ai vend do ia kalonte Amerik\u00ebs n\u00eb \u00e7do drejtim. Kjo ngjarje u pasua m\u00eb von\u00eb nga paniku, mjaft i p\u00ebrhapur n\u00eb fillimin e viteve 1960, se Bashkimi Sovjetik e kishte l\u00ebn\u00eb pas Amerik\u00ebn si n\u00eb teknologjin\u00eb e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore, ashtu dhe n\u00eb numrin e tyre.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb dyt\u00eb, kjo ndodhi n\u00eb vitet 1970, pas r\u00ebnies s\u00eb Saigonit dhe stagflacionit n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara. Edhe at\u00ebher\u00eb, pik\u00ebpamja q\u00eb sundoi n\u00eb radh\u00ebt e intelektual\u00ebve europian\u00eb ishte ajo, sipas t\u00eb cil\u00ebs, sistemi komunist ishte b\u00ebr\u00eb i pashkat\u00ebrruesh\u00ebm dhe Bashkimi Sovjetik po e fitonte Luft\u00ebn e Ftoht\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebn Amerika\u2014e mundur nga nj\u00eb ushtri fshatar\u00ebsh n\u00eb Vietnam, e lodhur nga konfliktet e brendshme dhe me nj\u00eb imazh t\u00eb d\u00ebmtuar r\u00ebnd\u00eb nga Skandali i Uotergejtit\u2014po e humbiste. Madje, edhe n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 1980, ekonomisti m\u00eb i preferuar i intelektual\u00ebve per\u00ebndimor\u00eb, John Kenneth Galbraith, vazhdonte t\u00eb insistonte se \u201csistemi sovjetik [kishte] arritur nj\u00eb progres t\u00eb madh material\u201d, duke e konsideruar at\u00eb si nj\u00eb model ekonomik \u201ct\u00eb suksessh\u00ebm\u201d. N\u00eb fakt, ai sistem provoi se ishte nj\u00eb d\u00ebshtim i madh, nj\u00eb sistem, i cili, sipas nj\u00eb ekonomisti t\u00eb njohur rus, Stanislav Menshikov, \u201criprodhonte gjendje defi\u00e7iti\u201d, \u201cgjendjen e nj\u00eb oferte t\u00eb pamjaftueshme dhe t\u00eb k\u00ebrkesave n\u00eb rritje\u201d. N\u00eb mesin e viteve 1970, edhe vet\u00eb Henry Kissinger besonte se sistemit dypolar i kish ardhur fundi dhe se n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb po krijohej nj\u00eb bote shum\u00ebpolare, q\u00eb do t\u00eb drejtohej nga pes\u00eb fuqi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Kjo, gjithashtu, nuk ndodhi. As at\u00ebher\u00eb, as sot, afro gjysm\u00eb shekulli m\u00eb von\u00eb.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00eb, pik\u00ebpamja se Amerika po e humbiste rolin e saj dominues n\u00eb bot\u00eb u b\u00eb shum\u00eb e p\u00ebrhapur n\u00eb vitet 1980, kryesisht si rezultat i sfid\u00ebs ekonomike t\u00eb Japonis\u00eb. N\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, shum\u00ebkush besonte se Japonia do t\u00eb b\u00ebhej sunduesja ekonomike e globit. Disa blerje spektakolare q\u00eb b\u00ebn\u00eb kompanit\u00eb japoneze n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara\u2014p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb edhe blerjen e qendr\u00ebs s\u00eb famshme \u201cRockefeller Plaza\u201d, n\u00eb zem\u00ebr t\u00eb Manhatanit, si dhe \u201cPebble Beach\u201d n\u00eb Kaliforni\u2014krijuan paranoj\u00ebn dhe mitin se \u201cJaponia po e blen Amerik\u00ebn\u201d dhe u b\u00ebn\u00eb, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb, simbol i t\u00eb ardhmes s\u00eb Japonis\u00eb. M\u00eb 1991, Chalmers Johnson formuloi tez\u00ebn e tij t\u00eb famshme: \u201cThe Cold War is over, and Japan won<\/em>\u201d (Lufta e Ftoht\u00eb ka mbaruar dhe Japonia fitoi), e cila u b\u00eb nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr sloganet m\u00eb popullor\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, n\u00eb Azi dhe n\u00eb Amerik\u00ebn Latine. \u201cPaniku\u201d q\u00eb u krijua n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, sidoqoft\u00eb, mori fund shpejt kur u provua se blerjet prej kompanive japoneze ishin b\u00ebr\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb vler\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe sesa vlera reale e industrive t\u00eb shitura. Edhe pse p\u00ebrfundimi i Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb nuk e d\u00ebmtoi Japonin\u00eb, me mbarimin e saj, ky vend filloi t\u00eb ndihej \u201cm\u00eb shum\u00eb i shqet\u00ebsuar, sesa i k\u00ebnaqur dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb i k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar, sesa i sigurt\u201d, si\u00e7 ka pohuar n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 1990 edhe vet\u00eb Kishore Mahbubani. Q\u00eb nga ajo koh\u00eb dhe p\u00ebr shum\u00eb vite me radh\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa ekonomia japoneze ka qen\u00eb pothuajse n\u00eb stanjacion, ekonomia amerikane \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 40 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n

\/Dita<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga Fatos Tarifa Pjesa I M\u00eb 15 prill t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, revista\u00a0The Economist, n\u00eb nj\u00eb rubrik\u00eb t\u00eb saj titulluar \u201cBota pas covid-19\u201d (The world after covid-19), botoi nj\u00eb opinion t\u00eb diplomatit dhe studiuesit t\u00eb njohur nga Singapori, Kishore Mahbubani, i konsideruar si nj\u00eb \u201cglobal thinker\u201d. 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