{"id":21914,"date":"2020-05-12T13:59:01","date_gmt":"2020-05-12T11:59:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=21914"},"modified":"2020-05-12T13:59:01","modified_gmt":"2020-05-12T11:59:01","slug":"kriza-e-covid-19-vs-depresioni-i-madh-krahasim-i-gabuar-apo-mesim-i-fituar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=21914","title":{"rendered":"Kriza e Covid-19 vs \u201cDepresioni i Madh \u201c\/ Krahasim i gabuar apo m\u00ebsim i fituar?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nga Adrian Civici<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebtyre muajve t\u00eb fundit nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i konsideruesh\u00ebm ekspert\u00ebsh, ekonomist\u00ebsh ose politikan\u00ebsh, n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb ethsh\u00ebm t\u00eb gjetjes s\u00eb shkaqeve dhe recetave t\u00eb shp\u00ebtimit nga kriza e Covid-19, i jan\u00eb referuar shpesh krahasimit t\u00eb saj me kriz\u00ebn e Depresionit t\u00eb Madh t\u00eb viteve 1929-33.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb dhe mediat apo rrjetet e ndryshme sociale kudo n\u00eb bot\u00eb. N\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb krahasimit me \u201ct\u00eb keqen m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe ekonomike, financiare e sociale t\u00eb shek. XX\u201d, q\u00ebllimi kryesor i ekonomist\u00ebve nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb thjesht analiza e mekanizmit q\u00eb shkaktoi Depresionin e Madh dhe pasojat e tmerrshme t\u00eb tij, por, mbi t\u00eb gjitha, masat dhe politikat ose, e th\u00ebn\u00eb ndryshe, \u201crecetat\u201d e p\u00ebrdorura p\u00ebr p\u00ebrballimin e kriz\u00ebs dhe daljen prej saj.<\/p>\n

A duhet t\u2019u referohemi k\u00ebtyre recetave p\u00ebr kriz\u00ebn aktuale t\u00eb Covid-19, apo tashm\u00eb n\u00eb sken\u00eb kan\u00eb dal\u00eb parametra dhe receta t\u00eb reja, nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e t\u00eb cilave akoma kan\u00eb pik\u00ebpyetje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha mbrapa?<\/p>\n

Mjaft ekspert\u00eb e analist\u00eb krizash e politikash antikriz\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se referencat e bazuara n\u00eb katastrof\u00ebn ekonomike, financiare e sociale t\u00eb Depresionit t\u00eb Madh q\u00eb i hapi rrug\u00ebn Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb efekte t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta dhe shum\u00eb t\u00eb d\u00ebmshme n\u00eb sjelljen e qeverive dhe popullsis\u00eb, tashm\u00eb t\u00eb n\u00ebnshtruara kundrejt kriz\u00ebs sanitare dhe asaj ekonomiko-financiare\u201d.<\/p>\n

Sipas tyre, fjala \u00e7el\u00ebs q\u00eb b\u00ebn \u201cdiferenc\u00ebn e madhe n\u00eb krahasimin nd\u00ebrmjet dy krizave dhe recetave sh\u00ebruese, \u00ebsht\u00eb FRIKA dhe PANIKU\u201d. N\u00eb shekullin 21 Depresioni i Madh p\u00ebrdoret zakonisht si shembull konkret se sa larg mund t\u00eb goditet dhe shkat\u00ebrrohet ekonomia bot\u00ebrore, se \u00e7far\u00eb duhet b\u00ebr\u00eb p\u00ebr shp\u00ebtimin e saj?<\/p>\n

Q\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb viteve \u201990, Milton Friedman, duke analizuar kriz\u00ebn e Depresionit t\u00eb Madh, ka evidentuar \u201crolin e frik\u00ebs\u201d n\u00eb gjith\u00eb ecurin\u00eb dhe pasojat e k\u00ebsaj krize ekonomiko-financiare. \u201cKriza dhe paniku\u201d ishin \u201cdrejtuesit kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb saj\u201d.<\/p>\n

Radh\u00ebt e gjata t\u00eb njer\u00ebzve p\u00ebrpara sporteleve t\u00eb bankave, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt k\u00ebrkonin t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqnin parat\u00eb e tyre nga frika se bankat nuk do t\u00eb kishin likuiditetin e nevojsh\u00ebm n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me k\u00ebto depozita, \u00e7uan shum\u00eb shpejt n\u00eb falimentim sistemin bankar. Njer\u00ebzit nuk i k\u00ebrkonin parat\u00eb apo kursimet e tyre thjesht dhe vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb plot\u00ebsuar nevojat e tyre p\u00ebr konsum, por p\u00ebr t\u2019i ruajtur ato n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi nga frika e falimentimit t\u00eb bankave. Ky veprim e p\u00ebrshpejtoi dhe e thelloi akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb kriz\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Megjith\u00ebse shifrat tregojn\u00eb ngjashm\u00ebri nd\u00ebrmjet dy krizave \u2013 r\u00ebnie t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb aksioneve q\u00eb filluan rreth 4 shtatorit 1929 dhe u b\u00ebn\u00eb lajme n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn me rr\u00ebzimin e tregut t\u00eb aksioneve t\u00eb 29 tetorit 1929, i njohur si Black Tuesday, e marta e zez\u00eb; prodhimi i brendsh\u00ebm bruto (GDP) n\u00eb bot\u00eb ra me 15%, t\u00eb ardhurat personale, t\u00eb ardhurat nga taksat, fitimet dhe \u00e7mimet ran\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm, tregtia nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare u reduktua me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 50%, papun\u00ebsia rrit n\u00eb 25-35%, pasojat e saj u zgjat\u00ebn deri n\u00eb vitin 1940 etj., \u2013 veprimet e shum\u00eb qeverive \u201cp\u00ebr menaxhimin dhe p\u00ebrballimin e k\u00ebsaj krize\u201d, n\u00ebn pesh\u00ebn e frik\u00ebs dhe panikut p\u00ebrball\u00eb s\u00eb panjohur\u00ebs, iu p\u00ebrgjigj\u00ebn duke reduktuar ndjesh\u00ebm shpenzimet publike\u201d.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb SHBA, n\u00eb kuadrin e \u201cNe# Deal\u201d t\u00eb politikave intervencioniste t\u00eb presidentit Roosevelt q\u00eb synonin p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimin afatshkurt\u00ebr t\u00eb situat\u00ebs \u2013 reformim i sistemit bankar, programe t\u00eb gjera t\u00eb asistenc\u00ebs sociale, programe t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje t\u00eb pun\u00ebsimit, investime t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme publike p\u00ebr nxitjen e pun\u00ebsimit dhe zhvillimit etj.,\u00a0 \u2013 politikat mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebse u nd\u00ebrmor\u00ebn vet\u00ebm mbas vitit 1933, pra rreth 3-4 vite mbas shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, edhe n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, e cila filloi t\u00eb prekej r\u00ebnd\u00eb nga kriza n\u00eb vitet 1931-33, nd\u00ebrhyrjet dhe politikat specifike \u201cantikriz\u00eb\u201d u nd\u00ebrmor\u00ebn \u201cme nj\u00eb koh\u00eb vones\u00eb\u201d. N\u00eb Britanin\u00eb e Madhe, Gjermani, Franc\u00eb, Austri, Itali, t\u00eb dominuara nga \u201cdoktrina keynesianiste p\u00ebr nevoj\u00ebn e vendosjes s\u00eb ekuilibrit nd\u00ebrmjet kursimeve dhe investimeve n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet investimeve masive publike\u201d, vet\u00ebm mbas vitit 1932 filluan reformat dhe politikat \u201ce v\u00ebrteta drastike\u201d antikriz\u00eb: investime masive shtet\u00ebrore me q\u00ebllime publike, tentativa t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme p\u00ebr pun\u00ebsimin e plot\u00eb, reforma financiare e monetare, politika tregtare proteksioniste, zhvleft\u00ebsime masive t\u00eb monedhave t\u00eb tyre, orientim drejt industris\u00eb s\u00eb luft\u00ebs etj.<\/p>\n

At\u00ebher\u00eb, p\u00ebrse ekonomist\u00ebt kan\u00eb filluar t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsohen p\u00ebr rreziqet q\u00eb paraqet krahasimi i kriz\u00ebs aktuale t\u00eb Covid-19 me Depresionin e Madh t\u00eb viteve 1929-33? P\u00ebrse k\u00ebrkohet kujdes m\u00eb i madh dhe analiza m\u00eb t\u00eb kujdesshme si p\u00ebr shkaqet e shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb k\u00ebtyre krizave, ashtu dhe p\u00ebr recetat e p\u00ebrdorura n\u00eb p\u00ebrballimin dhe daljen prej tyre?<\/p>\n

Natyrisht, interesi m\u00eb i madh nuk q\u00ebndron aq te shkaqet dhe natyra e kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb Depresionit t\u00eb Madh \u2013 p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb tashm\u00eb me dhjet\u00ebra mij\u00ebra studime, analiza, libra e filma \u2013 as te shpjegimet e teorive apo shkollave t\u00eb ndryshme ekonomike q\u00eb e shpjegojn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kriz\u00eb me spekulimet financiare e bursat, me analiz\u00ebn monetariste dhe teorin\u00eb e borxhit sovran, me uljen e konsumit apo ciklet ekonomike, me kriz\u00ebn e brendshme t\u00eb kapitalizmit liberal etj., por te m\u00ebsimet nga recetat ekonomike, financiare e politike q\u00eb u p\u00ebrdor\u00ebn p\u00ebr p\u00ebrballimin dhe daljen prej saj. Cilat prej tyre mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren aktualisht n\u00eb kushtet e kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb Covid-19 dhe cilat prej tyre i takojn\u00eb thjesht historis\u00eb specifike t\u00eb gjysm\u00ebs s\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb shek. XX?<\/p>\n

S\u00eb pari, megjith\u00ebse shifrat e d\u00ebmeve ekonomiko-financiare dhe sociale jan\u00eb t\u00eb ngjashme \u2013 recesion bot\u00ebror me risk shum\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb depresioni, p\u00ebrqindje papun\u00ebsie spektakolare deri n\u00eb nivelet 32-35%, r\u00ebnie e PBB-s\u00eb n\u00eb nivelet 6 -15% p\u00ebr vende e kontinente t\u00eb ndryshme, sektor\u00eb ekonomik\u00eb pothujase t\u00eb bllokuar n\u00eb mas\u00ebn mbi 90%, si\u00e7 jan\u00eb transporti ajror, detar dhe turizmi \u2013 natyra e kriz\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb e ndryshme.<\/p>\n

Depresioni i Madh ishte pasoj\u00eb e nj\u00eb \u201cshembjeje spektakolare t\u00eb bursave dhe tregjeve financiare\u201d n\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebsuar nga Lufta e Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, ishte shp\u00ebrthimi i nj\u00eb flluske financiare q\u00eb \u00e7oi shpejt n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb bankare t\u00eb paprecedent\u00eb, ishte nj\u00eb \u201ctharje masive e likuiditetit n\u00eb treg\u201d dhe nj\u00eb bllokim i sistemit t\u00eb kredis\u00eb. Disa muaj m\u00eb von\u00eb kjo u shoq\u00ebrua me nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb reale dhe mjaft shtresave sociale.<\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, kriza e koronavirusit, me gjith\u00eb p\u00ebrmasat e m\u00ebdha shkat\u00ebrruese, nuk u shfaq si nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb e ofert\u00ebs, por si nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs. Vet\u00ebm disa muaj m\u00eb von\u00eb, ajo mori trajtat edhe t\u00eb nj\u00eb krize t\u00eb ofert\u00ebs duke dh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb kombinuar n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb dhe financat bot\u00ebrore apo individuale n\u00eb shtete t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta, qofshin k\u00ebto t\u00eb pasura apo t\u00eb varfra.<\/p>\n

Kjo kriz\u00eb nuk erdhi n\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb t\u00eb sfilitur nga ndonj\u00eb luft\u00eb, apo pasoj\u00eb e ndonj\u00eb flluske t\u00eb madhe financiare e monetare, nuk ishte nj\u00eb tharje e likuiditetit n\u00eb treg apo bllokim i sistemit t\u00eb kreditit. P\u00ebrkundrazi. Shum\u00eb nga k\u00ebta parametra ishin duke u zhvilluar n\u00eb sens t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt. Kjo kriz\u00eb lindi dhe u zhvillua nga nj\u00eb pandemi bot\u00ebrore e provokuar nga nj\u00eb virus i quajtur \u201cCovid-19\u201d, pasoj\u00eb e masave emergjente sanitare e sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsore p\u00ebr pengimin e p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb tij, q\u00eb p\u00ebrve\u00e7 njer\u00ebzve bllokuan r\u00ebnd\u00eb edhe ekonomin\u00eb, e pak m\u00eb von\u00eb edhe konsumin si pasoj\u00eb e munges\u00ebs s\u00eb mund\u00ebsive p\u00ebr t\u00eb konsumuar. Pra, ishte nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb tipike oferte e ekonomis\u00eb reale, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb bota ishte n\u00eb nj\u00eb trend pozitiv t\u00eb rritjes ekonomike.<\/p>\n

S\u00eb dyti, dhe ky \u00ebsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimi m\u00eb i madh sot, \u00e7far\u00eb po ndodh me \u201crecetat antikriz\u00eb\u201d? Ekspert\u00ebt vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb se aktualisht \u201crecetat e vjetra historike antikriz\u00eb\u201d po i n\u00ebnshtrohen nj\u00eb analize dhe gjykimi m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. Diferencat n\u00eb k\u00ebto receta jan\u00eb mjaft evidente dhe t\u00eb pakrahasueshme me nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Politikat monetare jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb shum\u00eb aktive e relaksuese n\u00eb em\u00ebr t\u00eb furnizimit t\u00eb tregut me likuiditet dhe shp\u00ebtimit t\u00eb bankave e tregjeve financiare; nd\u00ebrhyrja shtet\u00ebrore dhe investimet publike filluan masivisht q\u00eb \u201ct\u00eb nes\u00ebrmen e shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs\u201d; po k\u00ebshtu dhe programet masive t\u00eb ndihm\u00ebs p\u00ebr ruajtjen e pun\u00ebsimit apo pagesat e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb; blerja e borxheve t\u00eb ndryshme nga bankat qendrore e ka kaluar shifr\u00ebn e disa miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebve; politikat monetare jokonvencionale po zgjerohen \u00e7do dit\u00eb e m\u00eb tep\u00ebr; bizneset po ndihmohen maksimalisht q\u00eb t\u00eb reduktojn\u00eb humbjet dhe t\u00eb mos falimentojn\u00eb; po b\u00ebhet gjith\u00e7ka q\u00eb recesioni i fort\u00eb t\u00eb mos\u00a0 kthehet n\u00eb depresion ekonomik; mbrojtja sociale ka marr\u00eb p\u00ebrmasa t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme; megjith\u00ebse kriza \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb kulmin e saj, planet dhe strategjit\u00eb e rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbjes ekonomike jan\u00eb pothujase t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitura n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e vendeve t\u00eb prekura etj.<\/p>\n

Dhe, mbi t\u00eb gjitha, qeverit\u00eb, bankat dhe njer\u00ebzit, kan\u00eb besim se \u201cekzistojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha kapacitetet dhe mund\u00ebsit\u00eb reale q\u00eb kjo situat\u00eb t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb sa m\u00eb shpejt t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur\u201d. K\u00ebt\u00eb radh\u00eb, ndryshe nga Depresioni i Madh apo dhe kriza t\u00eb tjera financiare globale, faktori \u201cFRIK\u00cb\u201d \u00ebsht\u00eb minimal, faktori \u201cPANIK\u201d \u00ebsht\u00eb po ashtu minimal. Nuk ekziston frika p\u00ebr r\u00ebnien drastike t\u00eb bursave, paniku p\u00ebr kriz\u00eb bankare dhe humbjen e depozitave, frika p\u00ebr pamund\u00ebsin\u00eb e nd\u00ebrhyrjes s\u00eb institucioneve shtet\u00ebrore e financiare etj.<\/p>\n

\u00cbsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht kjo \u201cmunges\u00eb frike\u201d e shoq\u00ebruar me besim te qeverit\u00eb dhe institucionet financiare komb\u00ebtare e nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare, monetare e ekonomike e cila b\u00ebri q\u00eb shumica d\u00ebrrmuese e bizneseve, e popullsis\u00eb kudo n\u00eb bot\u00eb t\u2019i pranonte dhe zbatonte masat drastike sanitare t\u00eb izolimit social e ekonomik pa eksese e shkelje t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n

Fjal\u00ebt \u00e7el\u00ebs t\u00eb asaj q\u00eb mund t\u00eb quhet sukses n\u00eb menaxhimin \u00a0e k\u00ebsaj krize duket se jan\u00eb \u201cbesimi\u201d, \u201cshmangia e frik\u00ebs dhe e panikut\u201d, \u201ckuptimi i qart\u00eb i situat\u00ebs dhe besimi te masat e marra p\u00ebr luftimin sanitar dhe ekonomik e financiar t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb Covid-19. Me sa duket, n\u00eb arsenalin e politikave antikriz\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shtuar s\u00eb fundmi edhe nj\u00eb paramet\u00ebr i ri, mjaft i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm e dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs. \/Fjala.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga Adrian Civici Gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebtyre muajve t\u00eb fundit nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i konsideruesh\u00ebm ekspert\u00ebsh, ekonomist\u00ebsh ose politikan\u00ebsh, n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb ethsh\u00ebm t\u00eb gjetjes s\u00eb shkaqeve dhe recetave t\u00eb shp\u00ebtimit nga kriza e Covid-19, i jan\u00eb referuar shpesh krahasimit t\u00eb saj me kriz\u00ebn e Depresionit t\u00eb Madh t\u00eb viteve 1929-33. T\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb dhe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20768,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nKriza e Covid-19 vs \u201cDepresioni i Madh \u201c\/ Krahasim i gabuar apo m\u00ebsim i fituar? - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=21914\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kriza e Covid-19 vs \u201cDepresioni i Madh \u201c\/ Krahasim i gabuar apo m\u00ebsim i fituar? - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nga Adrian Civici Gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebtyre muajve t\u00eb fundit nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i konsideruesh\u00ebm ekspert\u00ebsh, ekonomist\u00ebsh ose politikan\u00ebsh, n\u00eb k\u00ebrkim t\u00eb ethsh\u00ebm t\u00eb gjetjes s\u00eb shkaqeve dhe recetave t\u00eb shp\u00ebtimit nga kriza e Covid-19, i jan\u00eb referuar shpesh krahasimit t\u00eb saj me kriz\u00ebn e Depresionit t\u00eb Madh t\u00eb viteve 1929-33. 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