{"id":20821,"date":"2020-04-03T12:21:09","date_gmt":"2020-04-03T10:21:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=20821"},"modified":"2020-04-03T12:21:09","modified_gmt":"2020-04-03T10:21:09","slug":"nje-shikim-mbi-perparimin-e-pandemise-nga-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=20821","title":{"rendered":"Nj\u00eb shikim mbi p\u00ebrparimin e pandemis\u00eb nga Covid-19"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nga Alban Ylli<\/strong><\/p>\n

Per te pasur nje kendveshtrim me te plote mbi ate cka po ndodh me qarkullimin e virusit SARS \u2013CoV-2 sot ne Shqiperi, ndihmon zgjerimi i analizes ne prirjen e epidemise ne vende te ndryshme. Kemi perdorur te dhenat e peditesuara nga Qendra Europiane e Kontrollit te Semundjeve (ECDC), nje institucion i Bashkimit Europian.<\/p>\n

Kurbat e epidemise mund te ndahen ne disa kategori lidhur me fillimin e qarkullimit intensiv te virusit dhe strategjive te kontrollit. Megjithate, te gjitha vendet, me perjashtim te Kines dhe Korese se Jugut, kane te perbashket faktin se\u00a0askund nuk verehet renie e qendrueshme<\/u>\u00a0e rasteve ditore te konfirmuara.<\/p>\n

Ne disa vende rastet rriten ne menyre eksponenciale, megjithese kohezgjatja e qarkullimit nga data e rastit 0 mund te jete shume e ndryshme. Ne keto vende masat drastike jane ndemarre me vone dhe\/ose qarkullimi intensiv ka filluar me vone. Ne kete kategori perfshihen SHBA, Suedia, UK, Rusia, Turqia, Izraeli, India, Brazili apo Algjeria.\u00a0 Danimarka, pas nje rritje te shpejte ne gjysmen e pare te marsit perjetoi nje ulje, por serish prej\u00a0 dy javesh eshte ne rritje eksponenciale. Edhe Franca, Kandaja e Portugalia paten numrin me te larte te rasteve ditore te raportuara ne 30 mars, megjithese prirja nuk eshte ndjekut ne 1 prill.<\/p>\n

Ne nje kategori vendesh verehet qe pas nje rritje masive te rasteve permes nje kurbe eksponenciale, duket se ka filluar frenimi. Keto vende kane perjetuar nivele shume te larta te incidences dhe te vdekshmerise. Ne disa nga keto vende frenimi ka disa disa dite qe ka filluar.\u00a0 Nuk ka rritje te rasteve nga dita ne dite. Tipike ne kete kategori jane Italia ku verehet nje ulje e paqendrueshme dhe Spanja ku ka ka frenim. Vende te tjera me tipare te ngjashme jane Hollanda, Belgjika, Zvicra, Austria. \u00a0Ketu mund te futen edhe vende te tilla si Indonezia, Malajzia, Filipinet, Australia apo Hong Kongu ne Lindjen e Largme<\/p>\n

Gjermania, pas nje prirje rritje te paqendrueshme dhe arritjes se nje numri maksimal rastesh, para disa ditesh, eshte rikthyer serish ne rritje dy ditet e fundit. Norvegjia gjithashtu.<\/p>\n

Nje grup i madh vendesh kryesisht ne Europen Lindore, perfshi vendin tone, nuk e kane perjetuar rritjen e madhe te rasteve te verejtur ne Europen Perendimore apo gjetke. Pergjithesisht rastet e para ne keto vende jane konfirmuar me vone (2-4 jave me vone). Ne disa nga prej tyre vijon te verehet rritje me luhatje; Rumania, Polonia, Maqedonie, Serbia, Bosnja-Hercegovina, Bullgaria etj. Geqia pas nje rritje te shpejte ne javen e dyte te marsit, shenoi renie te perkoheshme, por rastet po rriten serish ne menyre te qendrueshme. Ne Kroaci rastet u rriten me kater here brenda nje dite ne 22 mars, por me tej kane qendruar ne kete nivel. Ne vendin tone rastet filluan te rriten per 5 dite rresht ne menyre eksponenciale ne 21 mars, U pergjysmuan menjehere ne 26 mars, por vijojne te rriten ne menyre jo te qendrueshme<\/p>\n

Kina dhe Korea pas perjetimit te kurbave te plota epidemike, prej disa javesh vijijne te raportojne nje numer relativisht te ulet rastesh (i shoqeruar me numer te rendesishem vdekjesh), prej disa javesh.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Megjithese disa shenja te sjelljes se epidemise nga Covid 19 ne vende te ndryshme mund te duken inkurajuese, duhet parasysh se:<\/p>\n

Pandemia nuk ka pamjen e nje vale qe ulet dhe ngrihet ne te njejten kohe ne te gjitha vendet e botes. Ajo e shpreh potencialin e saj ne vende te ndryshme ne varesi te kohes qe i eshte dashur virusit te krijoje nje rezervuar qarkullimi te qendrueshem ne popullata te ndryshme, para se kaloje ne qarkullim intensiv. Masat e distancimit social apo fizik jane nje element shume i rendesishm qe me siguri po ndikon ne frenimin e epidemise ne shume vende ku ato jane marre heret ne kohe. Megjithate, duket se kurbat e epidemise po mbahen deri diku \u2018te shtypura\u2019 dhe vlerat e R0\u00a0<\/sub>relativisht te uleta, nderkohe qe virusi ende nuk e ka shprehur potencialin e vet.<\/p>\n

Duke ruajtur potencialin e vet, qarkullimi i virusit mund te jete duke u sjelle si nje suste e shtypur nen efektin e masave drastike te distancimit social. Nese keto masa do te lehtesoheshin para kohe, pa u zevendesur me nje qasje re re, me siguri virusi do te fillonte shpejt te qarkullonte ne menyre intensive me gjithe pasojat perkatese.<\/p>\n

Me afrimin e veres dhe ndryshimin e kushteve te motit, potenciali i sustes per te shperthyer serish, do te zvogelohej shume, por eshte ende shpejt per te perfituar nga kjo.<\/p>\n

Nderkohe qe distancimi po funksionon, virusi vijon te replikohet ne individet e infektuar dhe te qarkulloje ne shkalle te reduktuar ne komunitet apo ne familje. Do te duhen disa jave qe zinxhiri i trasmetimit te nderpritet ne menyre te qendrueshme. Do te duhej te observonim renie te qendrueshme per rreth dy jave para se te rekomandohej hapja graduale e shoqerise dhe kthimi ne normalitet.<\/p>\n

Organizata Boterore e Shendetesise rekomandon qe nderkohe qe situate mbahet nen kontroll permes masave drastike mbi gjithe shoqerine, eshte e nevojshme te rriten pergatitjet dhe kapacitetet, per t\u2019i zevendesuar ato gradualisht me pershkallezim te masave specifike te shendetit publik ne komunitet.<\/p>\n

Se fundi, faktet tregojne qe virusi SARS-Cov19 do te vijoje te qarkulloje dhe shkaktoje deme shendetesore ne shkalle me te ulet edhe kur vemendja e shoqerise te jete larguar prej tij. Masat do te duhet te vijojne edhe ne kujdesin spitalor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga Alban Ylli Per te pasur nje kendveshtrim me te plote mbi ate cka po ndodh me qarkullimin e virusit SARS \u2013CoV-2 sot ne Shqiperi, ndihmon zgjerimi i analizes ne prirjen e epidemise ne vende te ndryshme. Kemi perdorur te dhenat e peditesuara nga Qendra Europiane e Kontrollit te Semundjeve (ECDC), nje institucion i Bashkimit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nNj\u00eb shikim mbi p\u00ebrparimin e pandemis\u00eb nga Covid-19 - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=20821\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nj\u00eb shikim mbi p\u00ebrparimin e pandemis\u00eb nga Covid-19 - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nga Alban Ylli Per te pasur nje kendveshtrim me te plote mbi ate cka po ndodh me qarkullimin e virusit SARS \u2013CoV-2 sot ne Shqiperi, ndihmon zgjerimi i analizes ne prirjen e epidemise ne vende te ndryshme. 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