Tashm\u00eb e keni d\u00ebgjuar shprehjen \u201crrafshoni kurb\u00ebn\u201d. I referohet p\u00ebrpjekjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsuar transmetimin e Covid-19, me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb numri akumulativ i infeksioneve t\u00eb marr\u00eb form\u00ebn e nj\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrpjete t\u00eb but\u00eb, n\u00eb vend t\u00eb nj\u00eb ngjitjeje t\u00eb fort\u00eb pothuaj vertikale.<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb urgjente, sipas ekspert\u00ebve t\u00eb s\u00ebmundjeve infektive q\u00eb kan\u00eb modeluar strategjit\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar p\u00ebrhapjen. Frenimi i virusit, thon\u00eb ata, k\u00ebrkon nj\u00eb distancim t\u00eb menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm dhe drastik social. P\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb efektiv, nd\u00ebrhyrjet duhet t\u00eb zgjasin me muaj \u2013 jo vet\u00ebm dit\u00eb ose jav\u00eb \u2013 dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur mbingarkes\u00ebn e spitaleve, duhet q\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjysmohet transmetimi i virusit.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse n\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, virusi lejohet t\u00eb shum\u00ebfishohet i pakontrolluar, nj\u00eb v\u00ebrshim pacient\u00ebsh pritet t\u00eb mbingarkojn\u00eb sistemet e kujdesit sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb pajisur p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrballuar numrin e njer\u00ebzve q\u00eb do t\u00eb ken\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr trajtim.<\/p>\n
Tashm\u00eb, SHBA ka konfirmuar m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 100,000 raste, nj\u00eb shif\u00ebr q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb dyfishuar ose trefishuar \u00e7do tre dit\u00eb, p\u00ebr gati nj\u00eb muaj.<\/p>\n
Me transmetimet e p\u00ebrhapura gjer\u00ebsisht, edhe nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e pacient\u00ebve me s\u00ebmundje kritike mund t\u00eb mbingarkonin spitalet. Ekspert\u00ebt n\u00eb Imperial College London n\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunim me projektin e Organizat\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb Sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsis\u00eb, thon\u00eb se 4.4% e t\u00eb infektuarve me Covid-19 do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb shtrim n\u00eb spital. Nga ai num\u00ebr, 30% do t\u00eb ken\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr kujdes kritik, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb respirator. Dhe gjysma e pacient\u00ebve me s\u00ebmundje kritike do t\u00eb vdesin.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjeve, kjo n\u00ebnkupton se 2.2 milion amerikan\u00eb dhe 510 mij\u00eb britanik\u00eb mund t\u00eb vdesin, sipas projektimeve, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb kapacitetet e kujdesit intensiv n\u00eb spitale do t\u00eb plot\u00ebsoheshin q\u00eb n\u00eb jav\u00ebn e dyt\u00eb t\u00eb prillit.<\/p>\n
\u201cBota po p\u00ebrballet me kriz\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb sh\u00ebndetit publik n\u00eb disa breza,\u201d tha n\u00eb nj\u00eb deklarat\u00eb Neil Ferguson, drejtori i Qendr\u00ebs MRC t\u00eb Imperial College, p\u00ebr Analiz\u00ebn Globale t\u00eb S\u00ebmundjeve Infektive. (Ai zhvilloi simptoma jav\u00ebn e kaluar dhe u vet\u00ebizolua.)<\/p>\n
Studiuesit e Imperial College vler\u00ebsuan dy strategji p\u00ebr t\u00eb rrafshuar kurb\u00ebn: zbutja p\u00ebrq\u00ebndrohej n\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsimin por jo ndalimin e p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb virusit dhe shtypja, e cila synon t\u00eb zvog\u00ebloj\u00eb numrin mesatar t\u00eb transmetimeve nga personi n\u00eb person, n\u00eb m\u00eb pak se nj\u00eb. (Tani \u00ebsht\u00eb rreth 2.2.)<\/p>\n
Vet\u00ebm shtypja \u2013 nd\u00ebrhyrja m\u00eb e fort\u00eb \u2013 do t\u00eb parandalonte q\u00eb sistemet e kujdesit sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor n\u00eb SHBA dhe Britani t\u00eb mbingarkoheshin, parashikojn\u00eb ata. \u201cShtypja\u201d e virusit, sipas modelit t\u00eb tyre, do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte distancim social n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb popullsin\u00eb, t\u00eb kombinuar me izolimin n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi t\u00eb personave me simptoma dhe mbylljen e shkollave dhe universiteteve. Nd\u00ebrhyrjet do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb para se spitalet t\u00eb mbingarkohen dhe t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb n\u00eb fuqi p\u00ebr t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn pes\u00eb muaj \u2013 ndoshta m\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Braktisja e strategjis\u00eb p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb zhvillohet dhe administrohet nj\u00eb vaksin\u00eb ose trajtim tjet\u00ebr, paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb ata, mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb q\u00eb pandemia t\u00eb rikthehet.<\/p>\n
Prov\u00eb e nj\u00eb rezultati t\u00eb till\u00eb t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb pandemia e gripit t\u00eb vitit 1918, kur transmetimet u rishfaq\u00ebn pasi u hoq\u00ebn masat.<\/p>\n
Studiuesit pranojn\u00eb se ka shum\u00eb paqart\u00ebsi, por ata besojn\u00eb se kjo strategji \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb siguroj\u00eb q\u00eb, infeksionet e reja nuk do t\u00eb tejkaloj\u00eb kapacitetin e kujdesit intensiv t\u00eb spitaleve, edhe pse ata nuk pranuan t\u00eb vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb se sa njer\u00ebz mund t\u00eb vdesin n\u00ebse merren k\u00ebto masa paraprake.<\/p>\n
\u201cKjo \u00ebsht\u00eb thjesht shum\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019i dh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb qart\u00eb tani,\u201d tha Steven Riley, profesor i dinamik\u00ebs s\u00eb s\u00ebmundjeve infektive n\u00eb Imperial College London, i cili punoi n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb analiz\u00eb. \u201cN\u00ebse e shohim Kin\u00ebn, ata kan\u00eb arritur nivele shum\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb incidenc\u00ebs, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb ne do t\u00eb parashikonim shum\u00eb pak vdekje n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen e af\u00ebrt\u201d.<\/p>\n
Strategjia m\u00eb pak agresive e zbutjes e modeluar nga studiuesit k\u00ebrkon izolimin n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi t\u00eb personave me simptoma t\u00eb Covid-19, karantin\u00eb vullnetare n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi t\u00eb rasteve t\u00eb konfirmuara dhe distancimin shoq\u00ebror t\u00eb njer\u00ebzve me mosh\u00eb mbi 70 vje\u00e7 (grupi m\u00eb i rrezikuar). Politikat p\u00ebr izolim dhe karantin\u00ebn do t\u00eb zgjasnin p\u00ebr tre muaj, nd\u00ebrsa k\u00ebrkesat p\u00ebr distancimin social t\u00eb atyre mbi 70 vje\u00e7 do t\u00eb mbeteshini n\u00eb fuqi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb muaj m\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse kjo do t\u00eb b\u00ebhej, studiuesit parashikuan q\u00eb rreth 1.1 milion amerikan\u00eb dhe 250,000 britanik\u00eb do t\u00eb vdisnin, dhe k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr shtret\u00ebr t\u00eb kujdesit intensiv n\u00eb spital do t\u00eb tejkalonte ofert\u00ebn, n\u00eb raportin 1 me 8.<\/p>\n
\u201cNdoshta p\u00ebrfundimi yn\u00eb m\u00eb dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb se zbutja nuk ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur, pa shtuar me disa her\u00eb kapacitetet e urgjencave t\u00eb kujdesit sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor n\u00eb SHBA dhe Britani,\u201d shkruajn\u00eb studiuesit n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e tyre.<\/p>\n
\u201cNevoja p\u00ebr nj\u00eb distancim social \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e fort\u00eb,\u201d tha Marc Lipsitch, profesor i epidemiologjis\u00eb n\u00eb Shkoll\u00ebn e Sh\u00ebndetit Publik n\u00eb Harvard, i cili kontribuoi n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb studim. \u201cNjer\u00ebzit q\u00eb infektohen sot duhet mesatarisht rreth tre jav\u00eb para se t\u00eb s\u00ebmuren aq sa t\u00eb ken\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr kujdes intensiv, n\u00ebse do t\u00eb s\u00ebmuren aq r\u00ebnd\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
Duhet t\u00eb veprojm\u00eb tani, tha ai, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur veten ton\u00eb pas tre jav\u00ebsh. \/ Me shkurtime nga WSJ \u2013 Bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tashm\u00eb e keni d\u00ebgjuar shprehjen \u201crrafshoni kurb\u00ebn\u201d. I referohet p\u00ebrpjekjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsuar transmetimin e Covid-19, me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb numri akumulativ i infeksioneve t\u00eb marr\u00eb form\u00ebn e nj\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrpjete t\u00eb but\u00eb, n\u00eb vend t\u00eb nj\u00eb ngjitjeje t\u00eb fort\u00eb pothuaj vertikale. \u00c7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb urgjente, sipas ekspert\u00ebve t\u00eb s\u00ebmundjeve infektive q\u00eb kan\u00eb modeluar strategjit\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,3,21],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n