N\u00eb analiz\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb mbledhura nga Universiteti Johns Hopkins, e b\u00ebr\u00eb nga MIT n\u00eb Boston, tregohet se numri maksimal i rasteve t\u00eb koronavirusit ka ndodhur n\u00eb rajone me temperatura midis 3 dhe 13\u00b0 C. P\u00ebrkundrazi, vendet me temperatura mesatare m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb 18\u00b0 C kan\u00eb regjistruar m\u00eb pak se 5% t\u00eb totalit t\u00eb rasteve. Ky model funksionon gjithashtu p\u00ebr ShBA-t\u00eb, ku shtetet jugore (si Teksasi, Florida dhe Arizona) deri m\u00eb tani kan\u00eb regjistruar nj\u00eb norm\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb t\u00eb rritjes sesa shtetet veriore (si\u00e7 jan\u00eb Uashingtoni, Nju-Jorku dhe Kolorado).<\/p>\n
Virusi preferon qytete t\u00eb ftohta dhe t\u00eb thata<\/strong><\/p>\n Dy studime t\u00eb tjera kan\u00eb v\u00ebrejtur t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn dinamik\u00eb: i pari, i sapopublikuar nga nj\u00eb studiues spanjoll dhe nj\u00eb finlandez, ka zbuluar se deri m\u00eb tani, 95% t\u00eb rasteve pozitive globalisht kan\u00eb ndodhur n\u00eb temperatura midis -2 dhe 10\u00b0 C, n\u00eb kushte t\u00eb thata. Studimi i dyt\u00eb, i publikuar n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij muaji nga nj\u00eb ekip i udh\u00ebhequr nga studiues t\u00eb Universitetit t\u00eb Beihangunt n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, shqyrtoi situat\u00ebn n\u00eb qytetet kineze dhe zbuloi se n\u00eb dit\u00ebt e para t\u00eb epidemis\u00eb, n\u00eb janar, para masave kufizuese t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb, qytetet e nxehta dhe t\u00eb lag\u00ebshta pan\u00eb nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarje m\u00eb t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb sesa ato t\u00eb ftohta dhe t\u00eb thata.<\/p>\n Shp\u00ebrndarja e rasteve n\u00eb mars<\/em><\/p>\n Parashikimet matematikore<\/strong><\/p>\n N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin studim, sipas modelit t\u00eb v\u00ebrejtur n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, studiuesit hartuan dy harta q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen e virusit n\u00eb bot\u00eb n\u00eb mars dhe parashikimin (bazuar n\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim matematikor) t\u00eb asaj q\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte n\u00eb korrik, n\u00ebse marrim t\u00eb mir\u00ebqen\u00eb se virusi ndjek ndryshoren e klim\u00ebs n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb hipotetike.<\/p>\n Projeksioni p\u00ebr p\u00ebrhapjen n\u00eb korrik<\/em><\/p>\n Kujdes n\u00eb disa fronte<\/strong><\/p>\n Asnj\u00eb prej k\u00ebtyre artikujve nuk ka marr\u00eb nj\u00eb t\u00eb ashtuquajtur rishikim nga koleg\u00ebt dhe lidhjet midis p\u00ebrhapjes dhe kushteve klimatike mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb llojeve t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb ndryshoreve: p\u00ebr shembull, masat e marra nga qeverit\u00eb, linjat e infeksionit, mungesa e testeve t\u00eb cilave u n\u00ebnshtrohen njer\u00ebzit.<\/p>\n N\u00eb nj\u00eb postim t\u00eb koh\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit, Marc Lipsitch, drejtor i Qendr\u00ebs p\u00ebr Dinamik\u00eb t\u00eb S\u00ebmundjeve t\u00eb Ndalueshme n\u00eb Shkoll\u00ebn e Sh\u00ebndetit Publik n\u00eb Harvard, i b\u00ebri jehon\u00eb k\u00ebsaj analize: \u201cMegjith\u00ebse mund t\u00eb presim ulje modeste n\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen e SARS-CoV-2 n\u00eb kushte t\u00eb motit m\u00eb t\u00eb ngroht\u00eb dhe t\u00eb lag\u00ebsht, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e arsyeshme t\u00eb pritet q\u00eb k\u00ebto r\u00ebnie t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsojn\u00eb transmetimin mjaftuesh\u00ebm sa p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur kurb\u00ebn\u201d.<\/p>\n Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt gjithashtu tregojn\u00eb se midis 11 dhe 19 marsit ka pasur nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb numrit t\u00eb rasteve n\u00eb rajone me temperatura m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se 18\u00b0 C, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 10 000 njer\u00ebz. Prandaj ato jan\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna t\u00eb bazuara n\u00eb v\u00ebzhgime: marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnia midis numrit t\u00eb rasteve \/ temperatur\u00ebs dhe lag\u00ebshtis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e fort\u00eb, megjithat\u00eb ne nuk e dim\u00eb se cili faktor mjedisor \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm. Mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb temperatura ose lag\u00ebshtia, ose t\u00eb dyja bashk\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb q\u00eb virusi SARS po humbte aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbijetuar n\u00eb temperatura m\u00eb t\u00eb larta. Dhe se gripi \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu sezonal.<\/p>\n Nuk mund t\u00eb presim ver\u00ebn<\/strong><\/p>\n Por, p\u00ebr hemisfer\u00ebn veriore, rruga q\u00eb kemi p\u00ebrpara nuk ndryshon: izolimi dhe distancimi shoq\u00ebror plus mbyllja pothuajse totale, masa q\u00eb, megjithat\u00eb, duket se funksionojn\u00eb, p\u00ebrtej ndryshimeve t\u00eb motit. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, rasti i Italis\u00eb tregon se nuk mund t\u00eb pritet vera. Lajmi i mir\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se n\u00ebse klima ndikon, natyra do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb favorin ton\u00eb n\u00eb muajt e ardhsh\u00ebm.\/tema.al<\/p>\n Corriere.it -P\u00ebrgatiti: Gazmira Sokoli\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ka disa studime q\u00eb konvergojn\u00eb mbi hipotez\u00ebn se COVID-19 preferon klim\u00eb t\u00eb ftoht\u00eb dhe t\u00eb that\u00eb para vendeve me klim\u00eb t\u00eb nxeht\u00eb dhe t\u00eb lag\u00ebsht. Nj\u00eb fenomen q\u00eb tashm\u00eb ishte i njohur p\u00ebr virusin SARS. M\u00eb shum\u00eb raste midis 3-13 grad\u00eb N\u00eb analiz\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb mbledhura nga Universiteti Johns Hopkins, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20436,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,3,21],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/images2.corriereobjects.it\/methode_image\/2020\/03\/23\/Salute\/Foto%20Salute%20-%20Trattate\/diffusione%20in%20marzo-kM3D-U31701793045978IGH-1399x744@Corriere-Web-Sezioni.jpg?v=202003231923\")
<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/images2.corriereobjects.it\/methode_image\/2020\/03\/23\/Salute\/Foto%20Salute%20-%20Trattate\/diffusione%20in%20giugno-kM3D-U31701793045978LfG-1273x658@Corriere-Web-Sezioni.jpg?v=202003231923\")
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