Jan\u00eb 53.578 raste pozitive t\u00eb konfirmuara n\u00eb Itali sipas buletinit t\u00eb Mbrojtjes Civile, q\u00eb ka dal\u00eb t\u00eb shtun\u00ebn n\u00eb mbr\u00ebmje. 17,708 pacient\u00eb n\u00eb spital, nga t\u00eb cil\u00ebt 2.857 n\u00ebn kujdes intensiv. Numri i vdekjeve u rrit n\u00eb 4,825. N\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, Spanja arrin n\u00eb mbi 25,000 raste pozitive me mbi 1.300 t\u00eb vdekur, Gjermania tani ngjitet menj\u00ebher\u00eb para SHBA me 22.223 raste t\u00eb konfirmuara (ka kaluar Iranin), por \u201cvet\u00ebm\u201d 84 t\u00eb vdekur.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb ndodh n\u00eb Itali? N\u00eb Kin\u00eb pati 3,259 vdekje, me nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebrie 3,8%, sipas raportit t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb misionit t\u00eb Organizat\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb Sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsis\u00eb. N\u00eb Itali shifra \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin 9% (12.1% n\u00eb Lombardi), nd\u00ebrsa ajo e Vuhanit ishte n\u00eb 5.8% dhe pjesa tjet\u00ebr e Kin\u00ebs u ndal n\u00eb 0.7%. Si shpjegohet ndryshimi i Italis\u00eb, n\u00eb krahasim me t\u00eb gjitha vendet e bot\u00ebs? Faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb kontribuojn\u00eb n\u00eb llogaritjen e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave numerike jan\u00eb t\u00eb shumt\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Duhet t\u00eb konsiderohet se shkalla e vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb numri i vdekjeve p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb Covid-19 i pjes\u00ebtuar me numrin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb rasteve t\u00eb konfirmuara t\u00eb infeksionit t\u00eb koronavirusit, nj\u00eb vler\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, varet nga subjektet pozitive t\u00eb gjurmuara.<\/p>\n
Numrat e n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsuar<\/p>\n
Hipoteza e par\u00eb interpretuese \u00ebsht\u00eb se n\u00eb Itali ka shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr njer\u00ebz t\u00eb infektuar: nj\u00eb studim i botuar n\u00eb \u201cScience\u201d llogarit se p\u00ebr \u00e7do person pozitiv ka t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 5-10 t\u00eb patestuar. Nj\u00eb model matematikor i firmosur nga Livio Fenga i Istat, nga ana e tij tregon se si n\u00eb 12 Mars, krahasuar me 12.839 raste t\u00eb raportuara n\u00eb Itali, personat e infektuar me Sars-CoV-2 mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb qen\u00eb 105,789.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse v\u00ebrtet personat e infektuar jan\u00eb dhjet\u00eb her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga sa raportohet, p\u00ebrqindja e vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb e llogaritur p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Italin\u00eb do t\u00eb binte shum\u00eb pran\u00eb vlerave t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs kontinentale.<\/p>\n
Sa tampon\u00eb kryhen<\/p>\n
\u201cP\u00ebrqindja e vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb Itali \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb sepse, p\u00ebrv\u00e7se kemi nj\u00eb popullsi m\u00eb t\u00eb moshuar, nuk jan\u00eb duke u testuar (dhe si pasoj\u00eb izoluar) rastet m\u00eb t\u00eb buta\u201d, ka deklaruar koh\u00ebt e fundit z\u00ebvend\u00ebs drejtori i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i OBSH, Bruce Ayluard.<\/p>\n
Personat e konfirmuar pozitiv\u00eb jan\u00eb ata q\u00eb kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb tamponin. Sa teste kryhen n\u00eb Itali? N\u00eb dit\u00ebt e fundit kjo \u00e7\u00ebshtje ka qen\u00eb objekt debati, duke qen\u00eb se ky num\u00ebr p\u00ebrcakton ecurin\u00eb e epidemis\u00eb. N\u00eb \u00e7do vend tampon\u00ebt jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb me direktiva t\u00eb ndryshme, shpesh her\u00eb sipas urgjenc\u00ebs s\u00eb momentit. K\u00ebshtu n\u00eb Itali (ashtu si edhe n\u00eb Kin\u00eb) n\u00eb fillim u b\u00ebheshin teste t\u00eb gjith\u00eb personave \u201ct\u00eb dyshuar\u201d, atyre me kontakte me rastet pozitive apo atyre q\u00eb vinin nga zonat \u201cme risk\u201d (edhe asimptomatik\u00eb), m\u00eb pas u kalua (pas pothuaj nj\u00eb jave) n\u00eb strategjin\u00eb ku u b\u00ebheshin tampon\u00eb vet\u00ebm personave me simptoma t\u00eb r\u00ebnda, por t\u00eb cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb edhe ata m\u00eb t\u00eb prirur p\u00ebr t\u00eb humbur jet\u00ebn. Q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb, p\u00ebrqindja ndryshoi dhe vdekshm\u00ebria filloi t\u00eb rritet. Duhet kujtuar gjithashtu se n\u00eb rajonet q\u00eb p\u00ebrjetojn\u00eb stresin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor (Lombardia dhe Emilia-Romagna), ku vdekshm\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur tej mase, b\u00ebhen m\u00eb pak tampon\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb prekur, n\u00eb krahasim me pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb Italis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Por n\u00eb terma absolute, testet p\u00ebr frym\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb dhe aq t\u00eb pakt\u00eb, n\u00eb 21 mars ishin b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 233 mij\u00eb: Italia ka b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb tampon\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb milion njer\u00ebz, krahasuar me t\u00eb gjith\u00eb shtetet e tjer\u00eb, e kaluar vet\u00ebm nga Korea e Jugut.<\/p>\n
Vatra ka prekur spitalet<\/p>\n
Shpjegimi p\u00ebr renditjen e trisht\u00eb t\u00eb vendit ton\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb edhe me m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si num\u00ebrohen t\u00eb vdekurit: ata kishin pothuaj gjithmon\u00eb patologji t\u00eb m\u00ebhershme, cili ka qen\u00eb shkaku i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb i fundit t\u00eb tyre? Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr fakt r\u00ebndues \u00ebsht\u00eb madh\u00ebsie e vatr\u00ebs lombarde: 10 vende ku zhvendosjet p\u00ebr arsye pune jan\u00eb t\u00eb shumta, me nj\u00eb infeksion q\u00eb preku spitalet, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt nga ana e tyre kan\u00eb sh\u00ebrbyer si shum\u00ebfishues t\u00eb infeksionit.<\/p>\n
Mosha mesatare e lart\u00eb dhe patologjit\u00eb<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb variab\u00ebl tjet\u00ebr krahasuar me vendet e tjera \u00ebsht\u00eb mosha mesatare shum\u00eb e lart\u00eb e italian\u00ebve: ne jemi t\u00eb dyt\u00ebt n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, n\u00eb Kin\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt. N\u00eb Koren\u00eb e Jugut, nj\u00eb vend q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb marr\u00eb si shembulli m\u00eb \u201ci p\u00ebraf\u00ebrt\u201d (me 102 vdekje nga 8,799 raste dhe vdekshm\u00ebri n\u00eb 0.01%), virusi ka prekur kryesisht grat\u00eb e reja: 30% t\u00eb atyre pozitive jan\u00eb n\u00eb grupmosh\u00ebn 20-29 dhe 62% jan\u00eb gra (41.1% n\u00eb Itali). P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, vet\u00ebm 3% e t\u00eb gjitha rasteve t\u00eb konfirmuara n\u00eb Koren\u00eb e Jugut ishin m\u00eb e pakta 80 vje\u00e7. Tek ne, 36.3% e totalit \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi 70 vje\u00e7 (burimi, Istituto Superiore di Sanit\u00e0 q\u00eb nga 20 Marsi).<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb popullat\u00eb e moshuar do t\u00eb thot\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz t\u00eb dob\u00ebt dhe q\u00eb rrezikojn\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohen, n\u00eb fakt, me kalimin e viteve, shfaqen s\u00ebmundje t\u00eb tjera: k\u00ebto jan\u00eb faktori kryesor i rrezikut p\u00ebr pacient\u00ebt Covid-19. Problemet kardiovaskulare, hipertensioni, diabeti: sipas ISS, t\u00eb ndjer\u00ebt q\u00eb nuk kishin patologji para-ekzistuese p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsojn\u00eb 1.2% t\u00eb totalit, 48.6% kishin t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn tre patologji t\u00eb m\u00ebhershme.<\/p>\n
Mushk\u00ebrit\u00eb e duhanpir\u00ebsit<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb faktor tjet\u00ebr shoq\u00ebrues: duke qen\u00eb se rezultati m\u00eb serioz i Covid-19 \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb pneumoni e r\u00ebnd\u00eb, numri i vdekjeve mund t\u00eb pasqyroj\u00eb edhe \u201cstatusin e mushk\u00ebrive\u201d t\u00eb italian\u00ebve. T\u00eb mendojm\u00eb p\u00ebr pluhurin e im\u00ebt t\u00eb lugin\u00ebs s\u00eb lumit Po, por edhe (ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht tek njer\u00ebz t\u00eb nj\u00eb moshe t\u00eb caktuar) mbizot\u00ebrimit t\u00eb duhanpir\u00ebsve tek rastet e r\u00ebnda. Ende nuk ka studime t\u00eb lidhura me k\u00ebt\u00eb, por fakti q\u00eb vdesin m\u00eb shum\u00eb burra se gra, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb k\u00ebtij zakoni dhe me siguri ata q\u00eb pin\u00eb duhan kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhen raste t\u00eb r\u00ebnda.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrveprimi midis brezave<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fund, disa analiza spekulojn\u00eb se ndryshimet n\u00eb bashk\u00ebveprimet shoq\u00ebrore luajn\u00eb nj\u00eb rol kryesor n\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjen e epidemis\u00eb dhe, rrjedhimisht, n\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebri. Dy studime, p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht nga Universiteti i Oksfordit dhe Bonit, arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin p\u00ebrfundim: n\u00eb Itali t\u00eb moshuarit shpesh kujdesen p\u00ebr nip\u00ebrit e mbesat e tyre dhe, n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, kan\u00eb kontakte t\u00eb shpeshta me f\u00ebmij\u00ebt dhe familjet e tyre. P\u00ebrqindja e personave t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs 30-49 vje\u00e7 q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb me prind\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak se 5% n\u00eb Franc\u00eb, Zvic\u00ebr dhe Holland\u00eb; n\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, n\u00eb Japoni, Kin\u00eb, Koren\u00eb e Jugut dhe Itali ka shifra mbi 20%. Nd\u00ebrveprimet e shumta mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb acaruar epidemin\u00eb n\u00eb Itali, duke favorizuar infeksionin midis brezave: f\u00ebmij\u00ebt e rritur dhe nip\u00ebrit dhe mbesat (q\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb shpesh asimptomatik\u00eb) mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb s\u00ebmurur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pavet\u00ebdijshme prind\u00ebrit apo gjysh\u00ebrit e moshuar. \/ Corriere della Sera \u2013 Bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jan\u00eb 53.578 raste pozitive t\u00eb konfirmuara n\u00eb Itali sipas buletinit t\u00eb Mbrojtjes Civile, q\u00eb ka dal\u00eb t\u00eb shtun\u00ebn n\u00eb mbr\u00ebmje. 17,708 pacient\u00eb n\u00eb spital, nga t\u00eb cil\u00ebt 2.857 n\u00ebn kujdes intensiv. Numri i vdekjeve u rrit n\u00eb 4,825. N\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, Spanja arrin n\u00eb mbi 25,000 raste pozitive me mbi 1.300 t\u00eb vdekur, Gjermania tani ngjitet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20390,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,3,20,21],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n