Po thuajse dy dekada kan\u00eb kaluar q\u00eb kur nj\u00eb coronavirus i njohur si SARS u shfaq n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, duke vrar\u00eb qindra njer\u00ebz dhe duke krijuar panik q\u00eb d\u00ebrgoi nj\u00eb drith\u00ebrim n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale. Virusi q\u00eb tani ka kapluar bot\u00ebn, q\u00eb burimin e kishte n\u00eb Kin\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb i d\u00ebmsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e domosdoshme e biznesit global q\u00eb nga shp\u00ebrthimi i SARS n\u00eb vitin 2003. \u00cbsht\u00eb rritur ekonomikisht, duke t\u00ebrhequr produkte t\u00eb tilla si iPhone dhe duke k\u00ebrkuar p\u00ebr mallra si nafta dhe bakri. Vendi gjithashtu mburret me qindra miliona konsumator\u00eb t\u00eb pasur q\u00eb shpenzojn\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr produkte luksoze, turiz\u00ebm dhe makina. Ekonomia e Kin\u00ebs p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte af\u00ebrsisht 4% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb 2003; ajo tani p\u00ebrb\u00ebn 16% t\u00eb prodhimit global, transmeton Telegrafi.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
SARS infektoi 8,098 njer\u00ebz dhe vrau 774. Coronavirusi i ri, i cili ka origjin\u00ebn n\u00eb qytetin qendror kinez Wuhan, ka vrar\u00eb tashm\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 805 njer\u00ebz dhe ka infektuar mbi 34.400 n\u00ebp\u00ebr 25 vende dhe territore.<\/p>\n
Zyrtar\u00ebt kinez\u00eb kan\u00eb bllokuar qytetin Wuhan dhe disa qytete t\u00eb tjera, por virusi vazhdon t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet p\u00ebr habi.<\/p>\n
\u201cShp\u00ebrthimi ka potencial t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb dislokim t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00eb ekonomik. Por shkalla e ndikimit n\u00eb fund t\u00eb fundit do t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohet nga m\u00ebnyra se si p\u00ebrhapet dhe zhvillohet virusi, gj\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse e pamundur t\u00eb parashikohet, si dhe nga m\u00ebnyra se si qeverit\u00eb reagojn\u00eb\u201d, tha Neil Shearing, ekonomist kryesor i grupit n\u00eb Ekonomin\u00eb Kapitale.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrfshirja e rrezikut \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti se bota jasht\u00eb Kin\u00ebs gjithashtu ka ndryshuar q\u00eb nga 2003.<\/p>\n
Globalizimi ka inkurajuar kompanit\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtojn\u00eb zinxhir\u00eb furnizimi q\u00eb kalojn\u00eb kufijt\u00eb komb\u00ebtar\u00eb, duke i b\u00ebr\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlidhura. Bankat e m\u00ebdha qendrore kan\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb municionit q\u00eb ata zakonisht do t\u00eb vendosnin p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar r\u00ebniet ekonomike q\u00eb nga kriza financiare e vitit 2008, dhe nivelet e borxhit global nuk kan\u00eb qen\u00eb kurr\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta. Nacionalizmi n\u00eb rritje mund ta b\u00ebj\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb koordinimin e nj\u00eb reagimi n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn, n\u00ebse kjo k\u00ebrkohet.<\/p>\n
Fabrikat e makinave n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Kin\u00ebn jan\u00eb urdh\u00ebruar t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb t\u00eb mbyllura pas fest\u00ebs s\u00eb Vitit t\u00eb Ri Kinez, fabrika si Volkswagen (VLKAF), Toyota (TM), Daimler (DDAIF), General Motors (GM), Renault (RNLSY), Honda (HMC) dhe Hyundai (HYMTF) jan\u00eb t\u00eb detyruara t\u00eb zvog\u00eblojn\u00eb prodhimin me rreth 15% n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb. Toyota tha t\u00eb premten se do t\u2019i mbaj\u00eb fabrikat e saj t\u00eb mbyllura t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn deri m\u00eb 17 shkurt.<\/p>\n
Prodhuesit e mallrave luksoz, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt mb\u00ebshteten te konsumator\u00ebt kinez\u00eb jan\u00eb goditur gjithashtu. Marka britanike Burberry (BBRYF) ka mbyllur 24 nga 64 dyqanet e saj n\u00eb territorin e Kin\u00ebs, dhe shefi ekzekutiv i saj paralajm\u00ebroi t\u00eb premten se virusi po shkakton nj\u00eb \u201cefekt negativ material mbi k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn e luksit\u201d. Dhjet\u00ebra linja ajrore globale kan\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar fluturimet drejt dhe nga Kina.<\/p>\n
Edhe m\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuese \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi p\u00ebr zinxhir\u00ebt e furnizimit global. Qualcomm (QCOM), prodhuesi m\u00eb i madh n\u00eb bot\u00eb i \u00e7ipave p\u00ebr smartphone, paralajm\u00ebroi se shp\u00ebrthimi po shkaktonte pasiguri rreth k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr smartphone, dhe furnizimet e nevojshme p\u00ebr t\u2019i prodhuar ato. Tashm\u00eb, mungesat e pjes\u00ebve t\u00eb automjeteve kan\u00eb detyruar Hyundai (HYMTF) t\u00eb mbyll\u00eb fabrikat n\u00eb Koren\u00eb e Jugut dhe ka b\u00ebr\u00eb q\u00eb Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb plane emergjente p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rezultat n\u00eb nj\u00eb prej fabrikave t\u00eb tij n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ekonomist\u00ebt thon\u00eb se niveli aktual i p\u00ebr\u00e7arjes \u00ebsht\u00eb i menaxhuesh\u00ebm. N\u00ebse numri i rasteve t\u00eb reja t\u00eb coronavirusit fillon t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsohet, dhe fabrikat e Kin\u00ebs rihapin s\u00eb shpejti, rezultati do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje e shpejt\u00eb p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb kineze n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb rezultat i rritjes globale. N\u00ebse virusi vazhdon t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet, megjithat\u00eb, d\u00ebmi ekonomik do t\u00eb rritet me shpejt\u00ebsi, p\u00ebrcjell Telegrafi.<\/p>\n
Mohamed El-Erian, k\u00ebshilltari kryesor ekonomik i Allianz (ALIZF), i tha CNN Business se ai ishte m\u00eb i shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr efektet e mundshme ekonomike.<\/p>\n
\u201cVirusi s\u00eb pari paralizon rajonin e shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb tij\u201d, tha ai. \u201cAt\u00ebher\u00eb ai gradualisht p\u00ebrhapet brenda vendit, duke d\u00ebmtuar tregtin\u00eb e brendshme, konsumin, prodhimin dhe l\u00ebvizjen e njer\u00ebzve. N\u00ebse virusi ende nuk p\u00ebrmbahet, procesi p\u00ebrhapet m\u00eb tej, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb rajonin dhe nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtarisht duke prishur tregtin\u00eb, zinxhir\u00ebt e furnizimit dhe udh\u00ebtimin\u201d.<\/p>\n
Rreziku epidemik
\nEkonomist\u00ebt jan\u00eb duke punuar p\u00ebr kostot e mundshme t\u00eb epidemive p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb karakteristikave t\u00eb tyre unike.<\/p>\n
Sidoqoft\u00eb, s\u00ebmundjet mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb d\u00ebmshme sesa katastrofat natyrore si\u00e7 jan\u00eb uraganet ose tsunami, ose ngjarje t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb paparashikueshme t\u00eb njohura si \u201cmjellma t\u00eb zeza\u201d. Sipas nj\u00eb studimi t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, nj\u00eb pandemi e r\u00ebnd\u00eb mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb humbje ekonomike t\u00eb barabarta me gati 5% t\u00eb GDP-s\u00eb globale, ose m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 3 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cNj\u00eb pandemi e r\u00ebnd\u00eb do t\u00eb ngjante me nj\u00eb luft\u00eb globale n\u00eb ndikimin e saj t\u00eb papritur, t\u00eb thell\u00eb dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur\u201d, vler\u00ebsoi Banka Bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb nj\u00eb raport mbi pandemit\u00eb nga viti 2013. (Coronavirusi Wuhan nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb shpallur nj\u00eb pandemi nga Organizata Bot\u00ebrore e Sh\u00ebndetit).<\/p>\n
Sidoqoft\u00eb, virusi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb faktori nxit\u00ebs i atyre humbjeve. P\u00ebrkundrazi, \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00ebnyra se si konsumator\u00ebt, bizneset dhe qeverit\u00eb reagojn\u00eb ndaj nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrthimi q\u00eb ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi.<\/p>\n
Njer\u00ebzit ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb shp\u00ebrthimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos u s\u00ebmurur, duke mos i lejuar ata t\u00eb udh\u00ebtojn\u00eb, t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb blerje dhe t\u00eb punojn\u00eb. Duke vepruar k\u00ebshtu, kufizon k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr mallra dhe energji t\u00eb konsumit. Vendimet e kompanive dhe qeverive p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbyllur dyqanet dhe fabrikat boshe, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, prodhimi bije.<\/p>\n
\u201cKjo po vazhdon t\u00eb rritet n\u00eb shtrirje dhe madh\u00ebsi. Mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb v\u00ebrtet, me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb e madhe dhe me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb serioze. Ne nuk mund ta projektojm\u00eb tani\u201d, tha William Reinsch, nj\u00eb k\u00ebshilltar i lart\u00eb n\u00eb Qendr\u00ebn p\u00ebr Studime Strategjike dhe Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare i cili kaloi 15 vjet si President i K\u00ebshillit Komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb Jashtme.<\/p>\n
Sipas Shearing, epidemit\u00eb e kaluara tregojn\u00eb se ekonomia e Kin\u00ebs ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb konsiderueshme n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb. Por kjo do t\u00eb zbehet shpejt nga kujtesa n\u00ebse virusi \u00ebsht\u00eb i p\u00ebrmbajtur.<\/p>\n
\u201cP\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb mbyllja e fabrik\u00ebs nuk \u00e7on n\u00eb humbje t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb pun\u00ebs, niveli i GDP-s\u00eb nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb i ndrysh\u00ebm nga sa do t\u00eb ishte pa virusin\u201d, tha ai.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet?
\nQeveria e Kin\u00ebs ka l\u00ebvizur shpejt p\u00ebr t\u00eb luftuar pasojat ekonomike nga coronavirusi dhe masat e marra p\u00ebr ta kontrolluar at\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Banka Popullore e Kin\u00ebs uli nj\u00eb norm\u00eb baz\u00eb interesi k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb dhe injektoi sasi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha parash n\u00eb treg p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar n\u00eb marrjen e presionit nga bankat dhe huamarr\u00ebsit. Zyrtar\u00ebt gjithashtu kan\u00eb njoftuar zbritje t\u00eb reja t\u00eb taksave dhe subvencione t\u00eb krijuara p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar konsumator\u00ebt.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu m\u00eb e rrezikuar nga nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb sesa 17 vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb kur shp\u00ebrtheu SARS.<\/p>\n
\u201cKa nj\u00eb borxh shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, tensionet tregtare me nj\u00eb partner t\u00eb madh tregtar dhe rritja e tij \u00ebsht\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdueshme p\u00ebr nj\u00eb num\u00ebr vitesh, gj\u00eb q\u00eb i jep nj\u00eb fillim fillestar t\u00eb dob\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrballur me nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb\u201d, tha Raphie Hayat, nj\u00eb ekonomist i vjet\u00ebr n\u00eb ING Bank.<\/p>\n
Analist\u00ebt e Ekonomis\u00eb s\u00eb Kapitalit presin q\u00eb qeveria t\u00eb njoftoj\u00eb masa shtes\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00ebt n\u00eb vijim. N\u00ebse virusi vazhdon t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet, ata besojn\u00eb se Pekini do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb braktis\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjet e saj afatgjata p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb n\u00ebn kontroll borxhin e tij dhe t\u00eb pompoj\u00eb parat\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n
Bankat qendrore n\u00eb vendet fqinje p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Sri Lanka, Malajzia, Tajlanda dhe Filipinet kan\u00eb ulur normat e interesit n\u00eb jav\u00ebt e fundit. Koreja e Jugut dhe Tajvani mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb tjetra vende q\u00eb mund t\u2019a b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Por fuqit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb bot\u00ebs financiare jan\u00eb lodhur nga nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb q\u00eb lufton rritjen anemike q\u00eb nga kriza globale financiare. Banka Qendrore Evropiane futi norma negative t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb vitin 2014 dhe nuk ka arritur t\u2019i rrit\u00eb ato q\u00eb nga ai vit, nd\u00ebrsa Banka e Japonis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozicion t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm. Rezerva Federale Amerikane tashm\u00eb uli normat e interesit tre her\u00eb vitin e kaluar; Kryetari Jerome Powell ka th\u00ebn\u00eb se ai po v\u00ebzhgon me kujdes situat\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, nivelet e borxhit jan\u00eb rritur n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, Japoni dhe vendet ky\u00e7e evropiane p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Italin\u00eb, duke kufizuar hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn p\u00ebr nj\u00eb stimul t\u00eb madh fiskal n\u00ebse ekonomia bot\u00ebrore kalon n\u00eb nj\u00eb baz\u00eb tjet\u00ebr. Borxhi global, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb huazimin nga familjet, qeverit\u00eb dhe kompanit\u00eb, ka hipur n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se tre her\u00eb madh\u00ebsin\u00eb e ekonomis\u00eb globale, raporti m\u00eb i lart\u00eb n\u00eb rekord, sipas Institutit t\u00eb Financave Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n
Gjithashtu kritike \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse qeverit\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb koordinojn\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen e tyre ndaj shp\u00ebrthimit, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb ideale me ndihm\u00ebn e institucioneve shum\u00ebkomb\u00ebshe. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb sepse, sipas Bank\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore, gatishm\u00ebria p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pandemi t\u00eb mundshme \u00ebsht\u00eb e ul\u00ebt. Por koordinimi mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb cop\u00ebtuar, ku nacionalizmi shpesh vler\u00ebsohet p\u00ebr bashk\u00ebpunim.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u00cbsht\u00eb mjaft e qart\u00eb se institucionet shum\u00ebkomb\u00ebshe jan\u00eb n\u00ebn presion m\u00eb t\u00eb madh dhe kan\u00eb m\u00eb pak \u2018dh\u00ebmb\u00eb\u2019 p\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtje ditore sesa 10 vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb\u201d, tha Shearing. \u201cPor optimisti tek un\u00eb do t\u00eb donte t\u00eb mendonte se p\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00eb pandemie globale, institucionet globale jan\u00eb akoma n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjen\u201d. \/Telegrafi\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Po thuajse dy dekada kan\u00eb kaluar q\u00eb kur nj\u00eb coronavirus i njohur si SARS u shfaq n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, duke vrar\u00eb qindra njer\u00ebz dhe duke krijuar panik q\u00eb d\u00ebrgoi nj\u00eb drith\u00ebrim n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale. Virusi q\u00eb tani ka kapluar bot\u00ebn, q\u00eb burimin e kishte n\u00eb Kin\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb i d\u00ebmsh\u00ebm. Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19866,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,20],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n