{"id":19733,"date":"2020-01-15T09:41:15","date_gmt":"2020-01-15T08:41:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=19733"},"modified":"2020-01-15T09:41:15","modified_gmt":"2020-01-15T08:41:15","slug":"okb-per-pak-vite-mosha-mesatare-e-popullsise-se-shqiperise-arrin-61-vjec","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=19733","title":{"rendered":"OKB: P\u00ebr pak vite, mosha mesatare e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb arrin 61 vje\u00e7"},"content":{"rendered":"
Sipas nj\u00eb skenari normal, pa rritje t\u00eb emigracionit dhe r\u00ebnie t\u00eb lindjeve mosha mesatare e popullsis\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb sipas projeksioneve t\u00eb OKB-s\u00eb shkon n\u00eb vitin 2050 n\u00eb 50.1 vje\u00e7 dhe n\u00eb vitin 2100 arrin 61 vje\u00e7.<\/p>\n
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N\u00eb skenarin pesimist me vijim\u00ebsi t\u00eb emigracionit dhe r\u00ebnie t\u00eb lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb, mosha mesatare e popullsis\u00eb arrin n\u00eb 79.1 vje\u00e7 n\u00eb vitin 2010 dhe gjithsej popullsia banuese brenda Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb arrin n\u00eb 512 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Projeksionet e popullsis\u00eb t\u00eb OKB-s\u00eb jan\u00eb rishikuar me p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsim p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb n\u00eb raport me vitin 2018, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb rishikimit t\u00eb treguesve t\u00eb emigracionit. Gjithashtu OKB pasuroi projeksionet me tregues shtes\u00eb mbi normat e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb, vdekjeve dhe anketave komb\u00ebtare t\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb jetes\u00ebs, sipas shpjegimeve q\u00eb shoq\u00ebrojn\u00eb tabelat e popullsis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2020 mosha mesatare e popullsis\u00eb shqiptare do t\u00eb jet\u00eb 36.4 vje\u00e7, nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat komb\u00ebtare raportuan se n\u00eb vitin 2018 mosha mesatare ishte 35.4 vje\u00e7.<\/p>\n
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Mosha mesatare e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb do t\u00eb rritet me ritme m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejta se vendet e tjera t\u00eb grupit t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Jugore me dy ose tre fish.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr shqiptar\u00ebt mosha mesatare do t\u00eb rritet me 25 vite gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs, p\u00ebr italian\u00ebt vet\u00ebm 6 vite, p\u00ebr boshnjak\u00ebt 9.8 vite, p\u00ebr grek\u00ebt 7 vite, p\u00ebr kroat\u00ebt 8 vite, p\u00ebr serb\u00ebt 10.5 vite dhe p\u00ebr maqedonasit 11.1 vite.<\/p>\n
Mosha e mesatare e shqiptar\u00ebve do t\u00eb rritet gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij shekulli gati dy her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se e popullsis\u00eb rajonale dhe tre her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se vendeve t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Jugore.<\/p>\n
Skenari pesimist i OKB-s\u00eb parashikon q\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2100 n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri t\u00eb banojn\u00eb rreth 512 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb ku 70 p\u00ebr qind e tyre do t\u00eb jen\u00eb pleq t\u00eb 70 -ve.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb parashikimet e publikuara n\u00eb vitin 2018, sipas variantit t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb parashikimit (me norm\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb fertiliteti), popullsia e vendit n\u00eb vitin 2100 pritej t\u00eb mbetej n\u00eb rreth 2.8 milion\u00eb persona, n\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb leht\u00eb nga niveli aktual prej 2.87 milion\u00eb banor\u00ebsh. Por, vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb pas, n\u00eb 2019-n, pritshm\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb ulur ndjesh\u00ebm edhe p\u00ebr variantin optimist. N\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha rastet, edhe n\u00eb variantin optimist, \u2013 pra n\u00ebse merret nj\u00eb nivel zero emigracioni dhe ecuri normale e normave t\u00eb fertilitetit, n\u00eb vitin 2100, Shqip\u00ebria nuk pritet q\u00eb t\u00eb ket\u00eb me shum\u00eb se 1.9 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb, ose 31% m\u00eb pak se parashikimi i nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb dhe 512 mij\u00eb banor\u00eb n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb keq.\/Monitor<\/p>\n<\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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