Multilateralizmi \u201cempirik\u201d i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara. Pse Donald Trump \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak i izoluar n\u00eb sfid\u00ebn me Kin\u00ebn<\/p>\n
Lufta tregtare me Kin\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb frut i nj\u00eb kapri\u00e7oje t\u00eb nj\u00eb Presidenti t\u00eb \u00e7ak\u00ebrdisur? Aspak: Jemi p\u00ebrpara nj\u00eb kthese vendimtare t\u00eb historis\u00eb dhe t\u00eb raporteve me Pekinin, q\u00eb kishte b\u00ebr\u00eb me dije: \u201d20 vite zhvillim paq\u00ebsor dhe pa nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr luft\u00eb\u201d, q\u00eb skadojn\u00eb vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm. Australia, Zelanda e Re, Kanadaja, por edhe Japonia, Koreja e Jugut dhe India po rreshtohen me Trump q\u00eb t\u00eb mos p\u00ebrpihen<\/p>\n
Nga 13 deri m\u00eb 14 n\u00ebntor 2006, p\u00ebr \u00e7do dit\u00eb m\u00eb mbr\u00ebmje, televizioni shtet\u00ebror kinez transmetoi nj\u00eb dokumentar me 12 episode, i titulluar \u201cDa Guo Jue Qi\u201d, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb \u201cNgritja e fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha\u201d. K\u00ebshtu, qindra milion spektator\u00ebve ju treguan lindja e perandorive koloniale portugeze dhe hollandeze, revolucioni industrial i Britanis\u00eb s\u00eb Madhe, mosp\u00ebrmbajtjet e fuqis\u00eb teutone, ndodhit\u00eb e ndryshueshme e Rusis\u00eb cariste e m\u00eb pas sovjetike, themelimi dhe m\u00eb pas Kriza e Madhe e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara. Sipas ish Sekretarit amerikan t\u00eb Shtetit Henry Kissinger, ky dokumentar i paprecedent qe tentative p\u00ebr t\u00eb popullarizuar nj\u00eb reflektim t\u00eb nisur zyrtarisht disa koh\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb lidhur me \u201cperiudh\u00ebn e mund\u00ebsis\u00eb strategjike\u201d t\u00eb vendit, si\u00e7 ishte pag\u00ebzuar n\u00eb disa analiza t\u00eb kryera nga Partia Komuniste Kineze.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb q\u00eb po t\u2019u p\u00ebrmbahesh autoriteteve t\u00eb Pekinit do t\u00eb p\u00ebrkonte me 20 vitet e para t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb XXI-t\u00eb. Mbi baz\u00ebn e k\u00ebtij parashikimi, midis viteve 2000 e 2020, Kina bashk\u00ebkohore do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb zhvillohej ekonomikisht e ushtarakisht pa mbetur nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb e p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb asnj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm t\u00eb armatosur. Ama me kush q\u00eb t\u00eb shmangte gabimet e fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha q\u00eb e kishin paraprir\u00eb. Sipas k\u00ebsaj analize t\u00eb Partis\u00eb Komuniste, n\u00eb vitin 2019 ngjitja 20 vje\u00e7are e \u201cqet\u00eb\u201d e ish Perandoris\u00eb Qiellore tashm\u00eb thuajse do t\u00eb kish p\u00ebrfunduar. Nj lexim josip\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsor i marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve aktuale kino \u2013 amerikane dhe, p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, kino \u2013 per\u00ebndimore, ndoshta mund t\u00eb niset nga k\u00ebtu: \u00e7far\u00eb ndodh kur \u201cperiudha e mund\u00ebsis\u00eb strategjike\u201d e Kin\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundim?<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb shembull t\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb nga kronika e k\u00ebtyre or\u00ebve, ndodh q\u00eb George Soros, financier dhe filantrop amerikan me origjin\u00eb hungareze, t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyj\u00eb n\u00eb World Economic Forum e Davosit p\u00ebr t\u00eb folur p\u00ebr impaktin e inteligjenc\u00ebs artificiale ndaj demokracis\u00eb dhe ta cil\u00ebsoj\u00eb k\u00ebshtu Presidentin kinez: \u201cXi Jinping \u00ebsht\u00eb armiku m\u00eb i rreziksh\u00ebm i shoq\u00ebrive t\u00eb hapura\u201d. Deklarata agresive e Soros, armik i njohur i Donald Trump n\u00eb sh\u00ebrbim p\u00ebrgjithmon\u00eb efektiv, duhet t\u00eb bind\u00eb m\u00eb s\u00eb fundi disa komentator\u00eb dhe analist\u00eb europian\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019i lexojn\u00eb cum grano salis raportet aktuale midis Uashingtonit dhe Pekinit, pa harruar dy vite f\u00ebrkime midis administrat\u00ebs aktuale amerikane dhe homologes s\u00eb saj kineze sikur t\u00eb ishin frut i nj\u00eb kapri\u00e7oje t\u00eb nj\u00eb Presidenti jokonvencional.<\/p>\n
Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb jo ekskulzivisht Uashington \u2013 centrike mbi marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet kino \u2013 amerikane do ta zhb\u00ebnte tashm\u00eb nj\u00eb paragjykim kaq sip\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsor. Le t\u00eb shikohet ajo q\u00eb ka ndodhur n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb fillimviti n\u00eb Australi, demokracia e ndodhur n\u00eb periferin\u00eb m\u00eb ekstreme gjeografike t\u00eb anglosfer\u00ebs dhe komshie me Kin\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb Kryeministri australian, liberalo \u2013 konservatori Scott Morrison, sapo ka p\u00ebrfunduar nj\u00eb mission t\u00eb pazakont\u00eb diplomatik n\u00eb disa ishuj t\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorit, duke shpalosur, p\u00ebr sa e mundur, soft power e Canberra: n\u00eb Vanuatu, ku nj\u00eb kryeminist\u00ebr australian n\u00eb vizit\u00eb zyrtare nuk shikohej nga viti 1990, duke premtuar infrastruktura dhe hapje tregtare; n\u00eb Ishujt Fiji, vend q\u00eb vitin e kaluar pas nd\u00ebrhyrjeve t\u00eb shumta australiane e braktisi iden\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mir\u00ebpritur nj\u00eb baz\u00eb ushtarake kineze, duke synuar mbi infrastrukturat dhe emigrimin e rregullt. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr mision qeveritar n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, ai i Ministrit australian t\u00eb Mbrojtjes Christopher Pyne, \u00ebsht\u00eb varrosur nga nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb diplomatike e shp\u00ebrthyer papritmas<\/p>\n
Yang Hengjun, ish burokrat i Partis\u00eb Komuniste Kineze me nj\u00eb jet\u00eb t\u00eb dyt\u00eb si shkrimtar librash thriller i natyralizuar australian, \u00ebsht\u00eb arrestuar n\u00eb fakt nga autoritetet e Pekinit \u2013 me akuz\u00ebn e v\u00ebnies n\u00eb rrezik t\u00eb siguris\u00eb komb\u00ebtare \u2013 pavar\u00ebsisht vizit\u00ebs s\u00eb eksponentit t\u00eb ekzekutivit t\u00eb Canberra.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e paparashikuar q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb verifikuar menj\u00ebher\u00eb pas protestive zyrtare t\u00eb Australis\u00eb p\u00ebr ndalimin n\u00eb Kin\u00eb t\u00eb dy qytetar\u00ebve kanadez\u00eb, biznesmenit Michael Spavor dhe ish diplomatit Michael Kovrig, edhe ata t\u00eb akuzuar se po konspironin kund\u00ebr siguris\u00eb shtet\u00ebrore dhe ndalimi i t\u00eb cil\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb interpretuar nga shum\u00eb an\u00eb si nj\u00eb hakmarrje p\u00ebr arrestimin n\u00eb Kanada t\u00eb drejtueses s\u00eb Huawei, Meng Wanzhou. Tri episode n\u00eb harkun e nja 10 dit\u00ebve q\u00eb konfirmojn\u00eb sesi kapaciteti amerikan p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrvepruar me Kin\u00ebn dhe ndoshta t\u2019i influencoj\u00eb zgjedhjet e saj nuk mund t\u00eb kuptohet plot\u00ebsisht pa mbajtur parasysh efektin \u201cshum\u00ebfishues\u201d t\u00eb luajtur n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb aspekt nga aleat\u00ebt e Uashingtonit.<\/p>\n
E v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, administrata Trump nuk duket se i mban kushedi se \u00e7far\u00eb parasysh organizatat klasike multilaterale: p\u00ebr shembull, n\u00eb frontin aziatik Uashingtoni ka braktisur marr\u00ebveshjen e treg\u00ebtis\u00eb s\u00eb lir\u00eb TPP q\u00eb \u201crrethonte\u201d Kin\u00ebn dhe ka kontribuar deri m\u00eb tani t\u00eb humbas\u00eb fuqi Organizata Bot\u00ebrore e Tregtis\u00eb (WTO), q\u00eb sipas disa p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte instrumentin kryesor p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur n\u00ebn fre parregullsit\u00eb tregtare t\u00eb kryera nga Kina.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, deri edhe analist\u00eb shum\u00eb kritik\u00eb ndaj asministrat\u00ebs aktuale \u2013 si ata t\u00eb Brookings Institution \u2013 e pranojn\u00eb se, n\u00eb rast t\u00eb konfrontimit n\u00eb larg\u00ebsi me Pekinin, nj\u00eb form\u00eb e \u00e7far\u00ebdoshme bashk\u00ebpunimi multilateral Trump her\u00ebpas\u00ebhere e ka arritur. Rasti m\u00eb evident ka ndodhur n\u00eb fundin e vitit 2018, kur vendet e grupit Five Eyes \u2013 Australi, Kanada, Zeland\u00eb e Re dhe Mbret\u00ebri e Bashkuar q\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunojn\u00eb me \u201csyrin\u201d amerikan \u2013 formalisht i jan\u00eb bashkuar d\u00ebnimit publik t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara kund\u00ebr kibernospiunazhit t\u00eb zbatuar nga Kina. Aktivizmi i ri australian n\u00eb zon\u00ebn e Paq\u00ebsorit, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilin fol\u00ebm m\u00eb sip\u00ebr, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr shembull i k\u00ebsaj loje n\u00eb ekip.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrballuar Pekinin, administrata Trump nuk ja p\u00ebrton q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb mund ta quajm\u00eb nj\u00eb multilateraliz\u00ebm empirik dhe selektiv. P\u00ebrtej p\u00ebrkufizimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb qasjeje t\u00eb till\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb n\u00ebnvizohet se pse krijimi i nj\u00eb fronti t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm q\u00eb ka si objektiv frenimin kinez mund t\u00eb realizohet pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb moment historic dhe fal\u00eb bashk\u00ebpunimit t\u00eb vendeve demokratike m\u00eb t\u00eb af\u00ebrta gjeografikisht dhe ekonomikisht me Kin\u00ebn \u2013 dometh\u00ebn\u00eb Australia, Zelanda e Re, Kanadaja, por edhe Japonia, Koreja e Jugut dhe India. N\u00eb fakt, me afrimin e 2020 q\u00eb konvencionalisht p\u00ebrkon me fundin e ngritjes paq\u00ebsore kineze, jan\u00eb k\u00ebto vende q\u00eb i frik\u00ebsohen t\u00eb par\u00ebt asaj q\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb pas s\u00eb ashtuquajtur\u00ebs \u201cperiudh\u00eb mund\u00ebsie strategjike\u201d.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb vend si Australia, \u201ckanarin\u00eb\u201d demokratike ne \u201cminier\u00ebn\u201d e kapitalizmit autoritar kinez, qysh sot p\u00ebson n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb massive nd\u00ebrhyrjet e Pekinit n\u00eb jet\u00ebn e saj demokratike. Gjithmon\u00eb Australia \u00ebsht\u00eb vendi i par\u00eb q\u00eb shikon t\u2019i shfaqet p\u00ebrpara kufijve t\u00eb vet nj\u00eb forc\u00eb ushtarake, q\u00eb si\u00e7 lexohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb raport t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb Defence Intelligence Agency p\u00ebr ushtrin\u00eb e Pekinit, \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb menaxhoj\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt rajonal dhe nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht t\u00eb arrij\u00eb objektiva ushtarake armike n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn (megjith\u00ebse pa mundur akoma t\u00eb dislokoj\u00eb kudo forcat konvencionale). Duke pasur parasysh k\u00ebt\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb m\u00eb pak Uashington \u2013 centrike, \u201ctweet\u201d-imet bombastike t\u00eb Trump p\u00ebr Kin\u00ebn marrin nj\u00eb dometh\u00ebnie dhe pesh\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme.<\/p>\n
Jo rast\u00ebsishst, nj\u00eb q\u00ebndrim retorik dhe diplomatik m\u00eb i zhd\u00ebrvjellt\u00eb ndaj lidershipit kinez nga ana e administrat\u00ebs amerikane has nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapur n\u00eb aparatet diplomatike dhe t\u00eb siguris\u00eb t\u00eb vendeve \u2013 si Australia e Japonia \u2013 legjitimisht m\u00eb n\u00eb ankth q\u00eb t\u00eb kuptojn\u00eb evoluimin e parabol\u00ebs kineze. \u201cPik\u00ebpyetja e madhe \u00ebshte n\u00ebse p\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00eb forme rezistence t\u00eb koncertuar n\u00eb nivel nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, jo vet\u00ebm nga ana e Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, por edhe t\u00eb aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre t\u00eb shumt\u00eb, Presidenti Xi do t\u2019i modifikoj\u00eb bindjet apo pozicionet e tij lidhur me ndonj\u00eb tem\u00eb\u201d, ka shkruar Richard McGregor i think tank australian Lowy Institute, duke individualizuar k\u00ebshtu arsyen e \u201cmultilateralizmit empirik\u201d t\u00eb ri me shtytje amerikane.<\/p>\n
Basti q\u00eb autor\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar n\u00eb zon\u00ebn aziatike duket se duan t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb tani ndaj Kin\u00ebs ngjan me at\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb prindi ndaj f\u00ebmij\u00ebs adoleshent shum\u00eb t\u00eb pap\u00ebrmbajtur. Babai dhe n\u00ebna fillojn\u00eb e ashp\u00ebrsojn\u00eb tonet me shpres\u00ebn q\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb q\u00ebndrimet m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme t\u00eb adoleshentit, p\u00ebrpara se f\u00ebmija t\u00eb rritet dhe t\u00eb jet\u00eb tep\u00ebr von\u00eb ta kandis\u00ebsh t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebqoft\u00ebse \u201cperiudha e mund\u00ebsis\u00eb strategjike\u201d t\u00eb Pekinit q\u00eb po shkon tashm\u00eb drejt fundit ngjan me adoleshenc\u00ebn e fuqis\u00eb bashk\u00ebkohore kineze, at\u00ebhere p\u00ebr Canberra, Tokyo apo Ottawa nuk duket aspak e ngutur q\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhen bashk\u00eb me Shtetet e Bashkuara lidhur me k\u00ebt\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje. Asnj\u00eb diplomat apo ushtarak \u2013 australian, kanadez apo japonez \u2013 natyrisht q\u00eb nuk do ta p\u00ebrdor\u00eb kurr\u00eb nj\u00eb metafor\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb pedagogjike n\u00eb publik, por delimitimi sot i perimetrit t\u00eb sjelljeve kineze t\u00eb konsideruara t\u00eb pranueshme n\u00eb skakier\u00ebn nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb rruga e vetme p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur probleme m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha nes\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
(nga Geopoliticus)<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrgatiti:\u00a0ARMIN TIRANA \/ bota.al<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Multilateralizmi \u201cempirik\u201d i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara. Pse Donald Trump \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak i izoluar n\u00eb sfid\u00ebn me Kin\u00ebn Lufta tregtare me Kin\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb frut i nj\u00eb kapri\u00e7oje t\u00eb nj\u00eb Presidenti t\u00eb \u00e7ak\u00ebrdisur? Aspak: Jemi p\u00ebrpara nj\u00eb kthese vendimtare t\u00eb historis\u00eb dhe t\u00eb raporteve me Pekinin, q\u00eb kishte b\u00ebr\u00eb me dije: \u201d20 vite zhvillim paq\u00ebsor dhe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4,20],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n