{"id":18259,"date":"2019-10-15T18:54:32","date_gmt":"2019-10-15T16:54:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=18259"},"modified":"2019-10-15T18:54:32","modified_gmt":"2019-10-15T16:54:32","slug":"shpopullim-i-frikshem-lamtumire-ballkan-nje-rajon-me-nje-renie-demografike-kritike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=18259","title":{"rendered":"Shpopullim i friksh\u00ebm\/Lamtumir\u00eb, Ballkan: Nj\u00eb rajon me nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie demografike kritike"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ish-vendet komuniste n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Juglindore p\u00ebrballen me nj\u00eb shpopullim katastrofik, me pasoja shum\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha sociale dhe politike.<\/h4>\n

Nga Tim Judah<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00eb rinjt\u00eb po largohen. Shifrat e lindjeve kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb. Shoq\u00ebrit\u00eb po plaken. Dhe edhe pse qindra mij\u00ebra refugjat\u00eb dhe emigrant\u00eb kan\u00eb shkelur n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb rajonit, shum\u00eb pak duan t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Kufijt\u00eb, z\u00ebnkat etnike, an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimi n\u00eb BE, an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimi n\u00eb NATO dhe \u00e7\u00ebshtjet e pap\u00ebrfunduara nga luft\u00ebrat e viteve 1990 \u2013 k\u00ebto jan\u00eb historit\u00eb q\u00eb mbushin lajmet nga Ballkani.<\/p>\n

Por analizat serioze p\u00ebr r\u00ebnien demografike t\u00eb rajonit, shpopullimin dhe uljen e fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore zor se i gjen. Ndoshta kjo ndodh sepse qeverit\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb as p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb besueshme dhe as burime t\u00eb disponueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar gj\u00ebrat.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse demografia \u00ebsht\u00eb fat, e ardhmja e Ballkanit \u00ebsht\u00eb e zymt\u00eb, por nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb unike. Nga Greqia n\u00eb Poloni, pothuajse t\u00eb gjitha vendet e Europ\u00ebs Lindore, Qendrore dhe Juglindore jan\u00eb duke luftuar me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat probleme.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb parashikimet aktuale, deri n\u00eb vitin 2050, Bullgaria do t\u00eb ket\u00eb 38.6 p\u00ebr qind m\u00eb pak banor\u00eb sesa kishte n\u00eb 1990. Serbia do t\u00eb ket\u00eb 23.8 p\u00ebr qind m\u00eb pak, Kroacia 22.4 p\u00ebr qind dhe Rumania 30.1 p\u00ebr qind.<\/p>\n

Moldavia tashm\u00eb ka humbur 33.9 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb saj. Bosnja dhe Hercegovina ka nj\u00eb norm\u00eb pjellorie prej 1,26, nj\u00eb nga m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebtat n\u00eb bot\u00eb. Kosova, me nj\u00eb mosh\u00eb mesatare 29 vje\u00e7are \u00ebsht\u00eb vendi m\u00eb i ri n\u00eb rajon, por nuk i shp\u00ebton as r\u00ebnies demografike.<\/p>\n

Shifrat dhe p\u00ebrqindjet mund t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb, por tendencat jan\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjta pothuajse kudo, megjith\u00ebse me disa vende m\u00eb t\u00eb avancuara sesa n\u00eb disa t\u00eb tjer\u00eb. Mosha mesatare e Serbis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb 43 vje\u00e7, m\u00eb e vjet\u00ebr se mesatarja e BE-s\u00eb prej 42.6.<\/p>\n

Sido q\u00eb ta shihni, e ardhmja demografike e Ballkanit dhe kjo gjysm\u00eb e Europ\u00ebs, e prekur nga emigracioni dhe shkalla e ul\u00ebt e lindjeve, \u00ebsht\u00eb dramatike.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Parashikimi i popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Lindore. Grafiku: BIRN<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

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Ndryshe nga e kaluara<\/strong><\/p>\n

Historikisht, t\u00eb gjitha vendet e rajonit, dhe n\u00eb fakt shumica e Europ\u00ebs, kan\u00eb pasur periudha emigracioni t\u00eb madh.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb rastin e ish-Jugosllavis\u00eb, qindra mij\u00ebra shkuan jasht\u00eb vendit nga vitet 1960 si\u00a0gastarbeiters<\/em>, jo domosdoshm\u00ebrish p\u00ebr t\u00eb q\u00ebndruar, por shumica e tyre e b\u00ebn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb, ndoshta sepse pat\u00ebn f\u00ebmij\u00eb jasht\u00eb, ndoshta prej luft\u00ebrave, ose edhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb dyja k\u00ebto arsye.<\/p>\n

Para k\u00ebsaj, hebrenjt\u00eb u larguan \u2013 ose u vran\u00eb n\u00eb Holokaust \u2013 dhe gjerman\u00ebt etnik\u00eb u d\u00ebbuan ose u vran\u00eb. N\u00eb BREZIN para k\u00ebsaj, mysliman\u00ebt, shqiptar\u00ebt dhe turqit nga Bosnja dhe pjes\u00ebt e tjera t\u00eb ish-Jugosllavis\u00eb dhe Ballkanit m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb u larguan n\u00eb val\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme gjat\u00eb shekullit XIX dhe XX.<\/p>\n

Njer\u00ebzit nga ishujt Dalmat dhe pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Malit t\u00eb Zi shkuan n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara. Greqia, Turqia dhe Bullgaria shk\u00ebmbyen popullsi.<\/p>\n

Por p\u00ebrsa i p\u00ebrket shifrave, kjo nuk kishte shum\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi kur grat\u00eb sillnin n\u00eb jet\u00eb nga pes\u00eb ose shtat\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb. Emigrimi, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb koh\u00eb paqeje, leht\u00ebsonte si presionin mbi tok\u00ebn ashtu edhe burimet dhe popullsit\u00eb vazhduan t\u00eb rriten.<\/p>\n

Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga arsyet pse ajo q\u00eb po ndodh sot \u00ebsht\u00eb kaq ndryshe nga e kaluara.<\/p>\n

Pastaj, vendet e Ballkanit shfaq\u00ebn karakteristikat klasike demografike dhe karakteristikat e emigracionit t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb varfra. Sot ato shfaqin nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht simptomat e vendeve t\u00eb pasura dhe t\u00eb varfra. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e paprecedent.<\/p>\n

Njer\u00ebzit n\u00eb Ballkan jetojn\u00eb gjat\u00eb \u2013 jo aq koh\u00eb sa n\u00eb vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb pasura t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs, por shum\u00eb m\u00eb gjat\u00eb sesa n\u00eb vende m\u00eb t\u00eb varfra.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, ashtu si n\u00eb vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb pasura, normat e pjelloris\u00eb jan\u00eb ulur ndjesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

Por nd\u00ebrsa vendet per\u00ebndimore e kompensojn\u00eb r\u00ebnien numit t\u00eb lindjeve dhe emigracionin me imigracion, relativisht pak njer\u00ebz imigrojn\u00eb n\u00eb vendet e Ballkanit.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Qendrore dhe Lindore, vet\u00ebm Polonia ka arritur t\u00eb kompensoj\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme emigracionin n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb dhe normat e ul\u00ebta t\u00eb lindjeve me imigrimin e m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb milion ukrainasve q\u00eb, n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, kan\u00eb zbehur edhe at\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb munges\u00eb kritike pune.<\/p>\n

Qeverit\u00eb t\u00eb pafuqishme<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00eb gjitha qeverit\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb vet\u00ebdijshme p\u00ebr situat\u00ebn, por p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb zbulojn\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me k\u00ebt\u00eb, ose nuk kan\u00eb mjete p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb shum\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Kroaci, \u00e7iftet e reja mund t\u00eb marrin hipoteka t\u00eb subvencionuara nga qeveria, por duhet t\u00eb keni para t\u00eb mjaftueshme dhe numri i hipotekave n\u00eb dispozicion dhe \u00e7ifteve t\u00eb p\u00ebrzgjedhsh\u00ebm jan\u00eb t\u00eb vogla n\u00eb krahasim me shkall\u00ebn e problemit.<\/p>\n

Aty ku munden, vendet u japin ndihm\u00eb grave dhe familjeve me m\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb, por nuk ka ende prova se ndonj\u00eb gj\u00eb e till\u00eb mund t\u2019i bind\u00eb ata t\u00eb ken\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Polonin\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb pasur, e cila ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi t\u00eb konsiderueshme fiskale p\u00ebr familjet me t\u00eb ardhura m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, parat\u00eb i kan\u00eb ndihmuar ata dhe i ka b\u00ebr\u00eb mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebs t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj t\u00eb partis\u00eb qeveris\u00ebse Ligj dhe Drejt\u00ebsi, por ata nuk duket se po sjellin n\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Kur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr emigracionin, pa iu rikthyer kufizimeve t\u00eb vjetra t\u00eb stilit t\u00eb komunizmit, duket gjithashtu se mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet shum\u00eb pak, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 se n\u00eb fusha t\u00eb synuara si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb pagesa shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr e punonj\u00ebsve t\u00eb kujdesit sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor.<\/p>\n

Parat\u00eb, megjithat\u00eb, nuk jan\u00eb arsyeja e vetme q\u00eb njer\u00ebzit largohen.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn, ata q\u00eb nuk i kishin syt\u00eb nga l\u00ebvizja jasht\u00eb vendit migronin nga fshati n\u00eb qytet dhe nga qyteti n\u00eb kryeqytet. Dallimi midis Europ\u00ebs t\u00eb s\u00eb kaluar\u00ebs dhe asaj t\u00eb dit\u00ebve t\u00eb sotme \u00ebsht\u00eb se tani \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e leht\u00eb ta kalosh at\u00eb faz\u00eb sesa n\u00eb \u00e7do periudh\u00eb tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb historis\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb fakt, Ballkani dhe vende t\u00eb tjera ish-komuniste jan\u00eb shnd\u00ebrruar vet\u00eb n\u00eb fshatra. N\u00ebse vini nga Bullgaria rurale ose nga nj\u00eb qytet i vog\u00ebl n\u00eb Poloni, pse do t\u00eb shkonit n\u00eb Sofjen e vog\u00ebl ose n\u00eb Uorklau, kur mund t\u00eb shkoni direkt n\u00eb Lond\u00ebr ose Berlin?<\/p>\n

Atje jasht\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb shum\u00eb e madhe. Shumica e europian\u00ebve s\u2019kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb as p\u00ebr biza p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkuar n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e vendeve per\u00ebndimore dhe linjat ajrore t\u00eb lira n\u00ebnkuptojn\u00eb se mund t\u00eb shkosh vajtje-ardhje nga Austria apo Italia n\u00eb nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb brez i m\u00ebparsh\u00ebm do t\u00eb ishte dashur ta b\u00ebnte me autobus.<\/p>\n

Aeroportet dyt\u00ebsore si Stansted ose Beauvais tani luajn\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rol q\u00eb dikur kishin stacionet e autobus\u00ebve n\u00eb provincat e larg\u00ebta.<\/p>\n

Kriza e pun\u00ebs<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Makth statistikor<\/div>\n
Q\u00eb t\u00eb fillojm\u00eb t\u00eb kuptojm\u00eb ndikimin e r\u00ebnies demografike, duhet t\u00eb dim\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb pyetjesh t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb dhe si t\u00eb interpretojm\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnash jan\u00eb n\u00eb dispozicion.
\nKur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr emigracionin nuk ka shifra t\u00eb sakta.
\nNe dim\u00eb p\u00ebr lindjet dhe vdekjet sepse ato jan\u00eb regjistruar. K\u00ebto dy gj\u00ebra s\u2019kan\u00eb vend p\u00ebr paqart\u00ebsi. Por ku jetoni \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb pyetje t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht ndryshe.
\nN\u00ebse po shkoni jasht\u00eb vendit p\u00ebr t\u00eb punuar, nuk keni pse t\u2019ia raportoni k\u00ebt\u00eb askujt n\u00eb vendin tuaj. Pastaj, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb shifra p\u00ebr personat q\u00eb regjistrohen n\u00eb vendet e destinacionit, ka pak analiza se \u00e7far\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptojn\u00eb ato.
\nBanka Komb\u00ebtare Kroate \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga institucionet e pakta q\u00eb ka ekzaminuar shifrat dhe puna e tyre zbuloi se sa e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u2019i p\u00ebrcaktosh k\u00ebto shifra.
\nP\u00ebr shembull, i nj\u00ebjti person mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb votues i regjistruar dhe tatimpagues n\u00eb vendin e tij, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb shfaqet n\u00eb disa vende t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb.
\nImagjinoni nj\u00eb grua nga Kroacia lindore, ku nuk ka shum\u00eb pun\u00eb, ose t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn ka pun\u00eb t\u00eb paguara jo mir\u00eb. Ajo jeton n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi gjysm\u00ebn e vitit, por pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb vitit kujdeset p\u00ebr t\u00eb moshuar jasht\u00eb vendit. Ajo mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb sigurime shoq\u00ebrore irlandeze dhe britanike dhe, n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn e af\u00ebrt, t\u00eb ket\u00eb punuar edhe n\u00eb Gjermani.
\nAjo gjithashtu mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb serbe dhe t\u00eb ket\u00eb pasaport\u00eb serbe ose boshnjake. N\u00ebse ajo ka pron\u00eb n\u00eb ndonj\u00eb prej k\u00ebtyre vendeve, ajo mund t\u00eb paraqitet si rezidente edhe n\u00eb statistikat e tyre.
\nP\u00ebr t\u2019i komplikuar akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb gj\u00ebrat, shum\u00eb nga ata t\u00eb regjistruar si shtetas kroat\u00eb jasht\u00eb vendit jan\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb nga Bosnja. Ne mund t\u00eb supozojm\u00eb se 20 p\u00ebr qind e tyre jan\u00eb boshnjak\u00eb, por nuk mund t\u00eb jemi t\u00eb sigurt p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb.
\nKroat\u00ebt e Bosnj\u00ebs dhe kushdo tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb nj\u00eb pretendim bind\u00ebs se \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb i till\u00eb, kan\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00eb t\u00eb marrin pasaportat kroate. P\u00ebr shkak se Bosnja, ndryshe nga Kroacia, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb BE, t\u00eb kesh n\u00ebnshtet\u00ebsi kroate e b\u00ebn shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb pun\u00ebn atje.
\nHungaria u jep pasaporta hungarez\u00ebve n\u00eb Rumani, Serbi dhe gjetk\u00eb dhe Rumania ua jep shtet\u00ebsin\u00eb e saj nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb moldav\u00ebve. Bullgaria u jep pasaporta maqedonasve.
\nP\u00ebr k\u00ebto dhe arsye t\u00eb tjera, shifrat n\u00eb lidhje me popullsin\u00eb dhe demografin\u00eb e cituar edhe n\u00eb disa pjes\u00eb t\u00eb shtypit jan\u00eb plot\u00ebsisht t\u00eb gabuara.
\nDisa shembuj t\u00eb fundit:
\nSipas The Financial Times, n\u00eb Moldavi ka 3,5 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb. N\u00eb vitin 2018, gazeta raportoi se 3,6 milion \u2013 ose 16 p\u00ebr qind \u2013 e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb Rumanis\u00eb, kishin emigruar q\u00eb nga viti 2007.
\nThe Guardian pati nj\u00eb grafik s\u00eb fundmi q\u00eb nxirrte n\u00eb pah faktin se Kosova kishte humbur 15.4 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb saj midis vitit 2007 dhe 2018 dhe tha se kjo ishte r\u00ebnia m\u00eb e shpejt\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Europ\u00ebn.
\nT\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto shifra jan\u00eb t\u00eb gabuara.
\nSot n\u00eb Moldavi nuk ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb se tre milion\u00eb banor\u00eb dhe ndoshta shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak se aq. Shifra rumune i referohet r\u00ebnies s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb midis viteve 1990 (jo 2007) dhe 2017 dhe p\u00ebrfshin faktor\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm nga emigracioni.
\nDhe shifra e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb p\u00ebr r\u00ebnien e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs nga viti 1991, e jo q\u00eb nga viti 2007, \u00ebsht\u00eb diku te 4.3 p\u00ebr qind.
\nN\u00eb rastin e Kosov\u00ebs, arsyeja e gabimit gjigand \u00ebsht\u00eb se vendi nuk kishte shifra t\u00eb besueshme para regjistrimit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb saj n\u00eb vitin 2011, gj\u00eb q\u00eb tregoi se popullsia e saj ishte shum\u00eb m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl nga sa besohej m\u00eb par\u00eb. K\u00ebshtu q\u00eb krahasimet jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb midis shifr\u00ebs s\u00eb p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsuar dhe nj\u00eb shifre t\u00eb lart\u00eb, por plot\u00ebsisht t\u00eb pasakt\u00eb.
\nGazetar\u00ebt dhe akademik\u00ebt mund t\u00eb besojn\u00eb se p\u00ebr shkak se agjencit\u00eb komb\u00ebtare t\u00eb statistikave jan\u00eb agjenci qeveritare, shifrat n\u00eb faqet e tyre n\u00eb internet duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb sakta. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rajon, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrish k\u00ebshtu ose shifrat nuk shpjegohen si duhet.
\nN\u00eb 1991, censusi i fundit jugosllav p\u00ebrfshiu rreth nj\u00eb milion qytetar\u00eb q\u00eb jetonin jasht\u00eb vendit. \u00cbsht\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht e rrall\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebdo q\u00eb analizon shifrat e popullat\u00ebs para dhe pas lufte ta faktoj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb ata zakonisht i krahasojn\u00eb moll\u00ebt me portokallet, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb, nj\u00eb shif\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin njer\u00ebz jo n\u00eb vend n\u00eb vitin 1991 me vet\u00ebm ata njer\u00ebz q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb v\u00ebrtet n\u00eb shtetet pasardh\u00ebse pas luft\u00ebrave.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, demografia dhe emigracioni po \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb pun\u00ebs ngado.<\/p>\n

Qeverit\u00eb kan\u00eb nj\u00eb problem t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb. Emigracioni zbut jasht\u00ebzakonisht shum\u00eb problemet dhe kostot e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb dhe sjell remitanca. Por gjithashtu po dob\u00ebson fuqin\u00eb pun\u00ebtore, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se investimet e huaja dekurajohen ose, n\u00eb disa raste, madje edhe largohen.<\/p>\n

Logjikisht, p\u00ebrgjigjja ndaj munges\u00ebs s\u00eb pun\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb rritja e pagave, por kjo nuk po ndodh, ose t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn jo ngado.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb ish-Jugosllavi, kompanit\u00eb e autobus\u00ebve nuk kan\u00eb para p\u00ebr t\u00eb konkurruar me pagat e firmave gjermane q\u00eb kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr shofer. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb si n\u00eb Beograd, ashtu edhe n\u00eb Rijeka n\u00eb Kroaci.<\/p>\n

Kur puna \u00ebsht\u00eb relativisht e pa komplikuar dhe parashikohet me paga t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb rasti n\u00eb industrin\u00eb e pjes\u00ebve t\u00eb automobilave n\u00eb Moldavi, kompanive u kushton m\u00eb pak t\u00eb shp\u00ebrngulen diku tjet\u00ebr sesa t\u00eb paguajn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Kjo nuk po ndodh kudo, natyrisht, dhe disa kompani po rritin pagat dhe po i mbajn\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt, sidomos n\u00eb sektor\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb aft\u00eb si teknologjia e informacionit.<\/p>\n

Pagat e tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb larta tani mund t\u00eb konkurrojn\u00eb me Londr\u00ebn ose Kalifornin\u00eb, por kostoja e jet\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb aq e ul\u00ebt, saq\u00eb e b\u00ebn t\u00eb vlefshme t\u00eb q\u00ebndrosh.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, diku tjet\u00ebr kjo gj\u00eb nuk po ndodh ose strukturat ekonomike e b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Kroaci, mbizot\u00ebrimi i turizmit sezonal \u00ebsht\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht shtremb\u00ebrues.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn, mund t\u00eb gjeje gjithmon\u00eb mjaftuesh\u00ebm njer\u00ebz nga zona m\u00eb t\u00eb varfra t\u00eb Kroacis\u00eb ose rajonit m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb punonin p\u00ebr tre muaj n\u00eb bregdet, por tani ata ngurrojn\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb, n\u00ebse mund t\u00eb punojn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb vitin ose edhe gjysm\u00ebn e tij p\u00ebr shum\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb para dhe me kushte shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mira n\u00eb Gjermani.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb korrik, qeveria kroate u detyrua nga presioni i pun\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebsve t\u00eb d\u00ebshp\u00ebruar q\u00eb t\u00eb jepte m\u00eb shum\u00eb leje pune p\u00ebr t\u00eb huajt. Rumania po b\u00ebn t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb zgjidhur problemin e nj\u00eb fuqie pun\u00ebtore n\u00eb r\u00ebnie \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet emigracionit. K\u00ebt\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb Polonia duke i hapur dyert ukrainasve dhe gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr njer\u00ebz t\u00eb tjer\u00eb nga gjetk\u00eb.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb tjer\u00ebt do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb ndjekin k\u00ebt\u00eb shembull, n\u00ebse duan q\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e tyre t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb rriten, por n\u00eb vendet pa tradit\u00eb imigracioni, kjo do t\u00eb jet\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb plus i vog\u00ebl, i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebrejtur s\u00eb paku n\u00eb Rumani, \u00ebsht\u00eb se rom\u00ebt q\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb margjinalizoheshin, tani po z\u00ebn\u00eb vende pune nga t\u00eb cilat m\u00eb par\u00eb do t\u00eb ishin p\u00ebrjashtuar. Parat\u00eb nga ata jasht\u00eb vendit po ndihmojn\u00eb gjithashtu p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb krijimin e nj\u00eb klase t\u00eb mesme rome.<\/p>\n

Qeveria e Polonis\u00eb pretendon se \u00ebsht\u00eb kund\u00ebr emigracionit dhe refuzoi t\u00eb pranonte disa mij\u00ebra refugjat\u00eb kur iu k\u00ebrkua nga BE-ja n\u00eb vazhd\u00ebn e kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb emigrant\u00ebve dhe refugjat\u00ebve t\u00eb vitit 2015.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, pa shum\u00eb zhurm\u00eb ka lejuar t\u00eb hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb vend nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i madh ukrainasish (megjith\u00ebse t\u00eb bardh\u00eb dhe t\u00eb krishter\u00eb).<\/p>\n

Kjo lloj politike mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb prototip q\u00eb ta ndjekin edhe t\u00eb tjer\u00eb, por mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb gjithashtu, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn p\u00ebr Ballkanin, i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u kopjuar. Ku \u00ebsht\u00eb Ukraina e Ballkanit?<\/p>\n

Zonat rurale mund t\u00eb zbrazen kudo, por n\u00eb disa vende popullsia po rritet.<\/p>\n

Tirana, pretendon Erion Veliaj, kryebashkiaku i saj, po rritet me 25,000 banor\u00eb n\u00eb vit nd\u00ebrsa vendi n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi po humbet njer\u00ebz.<\/p>\n

Kluzhi n\u00eb Transilvani \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb qytet n\u00eb lul\u00ebzim, n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin shkojn\u00eb njer\u00ebz nga pjes\u00eb t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb Rumanis\u00eb dhe jasht\u00eb vendit. Suksesi i tij bazohet n\u00eb njohurin\u00eb nga ekonomia dhe inxhinieria informatike.<\/p>\n

Ka shembuj n\u00eb Rumani ku investimet e huaja, duke rezultuar n\u00eb nd\u00ebrtimin e fabrikave moderne, kan\u00eb ndalur shpopullimin dhe madje kan\u00eb sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb rikthim t\u00eb kufizuar t\u00eb njer\u00ebzve.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse qytete si Kluzhi mund t\u00eb kopjoheshin nj\u00eb mij\u00eb her\u00eb dhe t\u00eb punohej ngado p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar standardet e jetes\u00ebs, si n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb, situata do t\u00eb ishte shum\u00eb e ndryshme.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar nga BE-ja<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sado e pak\u00ebndshme p\u00ebr ta pranuar, an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimi n\u00eb BE i p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebson akoma m\u00eb shum\u00eb gj\u00ebrat, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn si fillim. Por tani dallimi n\u00eb Europ\u00eb midis vendeve an\u00ebtare dhe jo-an\u00ebtare ende shum\u00eb m\u00eb i duksh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr Polonin\u00eb, Rumanin\u00eb, Kroacin\u00eb dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt, hapja e tregut t\u00eb pun\u00ebs \u00e7oi n\u00eb largimin e miliona njer\u00ebzve. Tani Gjermania dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt e kan\u00eb hapur tregun e pun\u00ebs edhe p\u00ebr njer\u00ebz nga vendet jo an\u00ebtare t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Disa vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb, problemi ishte emigracioni i paligjsh\u00ebm dhe njer\u00ebzit q\u00eb provonin fatin e tyre si azilk\u00ebrkues t\u00eb rrem\u00eb. Kjo histori tashm\u00eb i p\u00ebrket t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Tani ka turma t\u00eb m\u00ebdha njer\u00ebzish para konsullatave nga Beogradi deri n\u00eb Banja Luka dhe Prishtin\u00eb pasi njer\u00ebzit k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb leje pune, shpesh t\u00eb ofruara nga kompani n\u00eb Kroaci dhe Slloveni, pjes\u00eb t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Emigrimi \u00e7on n\u00eb pasoja politike. N\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin, \u00e7\u00ebshtja demografike po b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje politike dhe jo vet\u00ebm n\u00eb aspektin e qeverive q\u00eb premtojn\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb di\u00e7ka.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Serbi, presidenti ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb kontrast me numrin aktual t\u00eb serb\u00ebve dhe shqiptar\u00ebve, me shifrat e ardhshme q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se serb\u00ebt po zvog\u00eblohen n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb dramatike n\u00eb proporcion me shqiptar\u00ebt. Ai po e b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb sepse k\u00ebrkon t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtoj\u00eb nj\u00eb konsensus p\u00ebrpara \u00e7do marr\u00ebveshje jo t\u00eb mir\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me Kosov\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Listat zgjedhore gjithandej mbeten t\u00eb mbushura me emra personash q\u00eb kan\u00eb emigruar. Politikan\u00ebt kan\u00eb nj\u00eb interes ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb leht\u00eb t\u00eb vjedh\u00ebsh zgjedhjet, n\u00ebse i ke listat e mbushura.<\/p>\n

Por referendumi i vitit 2018 n\u00eb Maqedonin\u00eb e Veriut p\u00ebr ndryshimin e emrit d\u00ebshtoi, jo vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb nj\u00eb bojkoti t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, por edhe sepse pragu i nevojsh\u00ebm nuk mund t\u00eb arrihej leht\u00eb, sepse shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz n\u00eb listat zgjedhore ishin jasht\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb qershor t\u00eb vitit 2019, pasi nj\u00eb qeveri u rr\u00ebzua dhe nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr mori pushtetin n\u00eb Moldavi, nj\u00eb nga aktet e saj t\u00eb para ishte t\u00eb rr\u00ebzonte nj\u00eb rregull t\u00eb miratuar p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e fundit q\u00eb ata n\u00eb diaspor\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb votonin me pasaportat ose kartat identiteti moldave t\u00eb skaduara.<\/p>\n

Pse ishte e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme kjo? Sepse nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i madh p\u00ebrkrah\u00ebsish t\u00eb Maia Sandu, kryeministrja e ardhshme, jan\u00eb n\u00eb diaspor\u00eb n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim dhe udh\u00ebtojn\u00eb dhe punojn\u00eb atje me pasaportat rumune dhe k\u00ebshtu paguhen m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa do t\u00eb paguheshin me dokumente t\u00eb skaduara moldave.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri, opozita sulmon qeverin\u00eb, duke pretenduar se deri n\u00eb gjysm\u00eb milioni njer\u00ebz jan\u00eb larguar nga vendi n\u00eb vitet e fundit. Megjithat\u00eb kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb fantazi politike sepse qindra mij\u00ebra jan\u00eb kthyer gjithashtu ose jan\u00eb emigrant\u00eb q\u00eb ikin e vijn\u00eb vazhdimisht.<\/p>\n

Migracioni gjithashtu ka efekte n\u00eb vendet e destinacionit dhe ka ndihmuar n\u00eb ngritjen e partive nacional-populiste.<\/p>\n

Nuk ka asnj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar se n\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb mase ardhja e nj\u00eb numri t\u00eb madh polak\u00ebsh, rumun\u00ebsh, bullgar\u00eb etj ishte faktori p\u00ebrcaktues n\u00eb referendumin q\u00eb u mbajt n\u00eb vitin 2016 n\u00eb Britani n\u00eb lidhje me Brexit, por nuk mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb asnj\u00eb dyshim se ata e pat\u00ebn nj\u00eb rol.<\/p>\n

Kauz\u00eb e humbur?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Si mund t\u2019i zgjidhin vendet k\u00ebto probleme? Apo kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kauz\u00eb e humbur? K\u00ebto jan\u00eb pyetjet e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb koh\u00ebs son\u00eb dhe nganj\u00ebher\u00eb qeverit\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndiejn\u00eb se jan\u00eb si njer\u00ebz q\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb ngjisin nj\u00eb pal\u00eb shkall\u00eb l\u00ebviz\u00ebse zbrit\u00ebse.<\/p>\n

Pse emigrojn\u00eb njer\u00ebzit? Nuk e b\u00ebjn\u00eb vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr para. Arsyeja \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe arsimi, kujdesi sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor dhe sh\u00ebrbimet dhe kjo ndodh gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb sepse njer\u00ebzit kan\u00eb humbur shpres\u00ebn se ata do t\u00eb jetojn\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb shoq\u00ebri normale, demokratike dhe sa m\u00eb pak t\u00eb korruptuara.<\/p>\n

Kur vendet b\u00ebhen m\u00eb t\u00eb pasura, segmente t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb kan\u00eb jetuar tashm\u00eb jasht\u00eb vendit dhe d\u00ebshirojn\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat standarde jetese, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb sh\u00ebrbime sociale, si\u00e7 kan\u00eb pasur n\u00eb ato vende per\u00ebndimore.<\/p>\n

\u201cP\u00ebr brezin e babait tim\u201d, thot\u00eb Majlinda, nj\u00eb studente 25-vje\u00e7ar shqiptare q\u00eb ka studiuar n\u00eb Holand\u00eb, \u201cgj\u00ebrat kan\u00eb ndryshuar shum\u00eb shpejt, por p\u00ebr mua kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aq shpejt sa duhet!\u201d<\/p>\n

Pra, hendeku i pritshm\u00ebrive \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur si me asnj\u00eb zbres tjet\u00ebr n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Logjikisht, mund t\u00eb mendoni se n\u00ebse k\u00ebto vende jan\u00eb fshatrat e dit\u00ebve t\u00eb sotme, at\u00ebher\u00eb transferimi fiskal n\u00eb nj\u00eb Europ\u00eb m\u00eb federale mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjja e duhur, por ne e dim\u00eb se n\u00eb klim\u00ebn aktuale kjo nuk do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb fakt, vendet e Ballkanit Per\u00ebndimor, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 Moldavis\u00eb, nuk jan\u00eb as n\u00eb BE dhe madje disa kan\u00eb filluar t\u00eb dyshojn\u00eb se do t\u00eb jen\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb pjes\u00eb e saj.<\/p>\n

Por cilat jan\u00eb provat nga nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e bot\u00ebs s\u00eb m\u00ebparshme komuniste q\u00eb zgjidh\u00ebn problemin e transferimeve fiskale? Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb inkurajuese. Gjermania Lindore vazhdon t\u00eb shpopullohet edhe pothuajse tre dekada pas ribashkimit.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsuar dhe, me shpres\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar r\u00ebnien e numrit t\u00eb popullsive, qeverit\u00eb duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb vendet ato n\u00eb t\u00eb cilat njer\u00ebzit duan t\u00eb jetojn\u00eb. Kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka shum\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr ta kuptuar, por ndoshta \u00ebsht\u00eb tep\u00ebr von\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Vendet nuk mund t\u00eb zvog\u00eblohen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb, por ata mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhen thjesht t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr dhe kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb t\u00eb mbeten m\u00eb t\u00eb varf\u00ebr sesa vendet per\u00ebndimore dhe kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb emigrim.<\/p>\n

N\u00ebse ata do t\u00eb kishin qen\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb pasur, si Japonia, do t\u00eb kishte m\u00eb shum\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb di\u00e7ka, por meqen\u00ebse nuk jan\u00eb ashtu, dhe meqen\u00ebse tendencat jan\u00eb pa dyshim t\u00eb zymta, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tem\u00eb q\u00eb k\u00ebrkon v\u00ebmendje urgjente.<\/p>\n

Kjo ka nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr masa dhe ide, jo vet\u00ebm nga qeverit\u00eb dhe mendimtar\u00ebt n\u00eb vendet popullsia e t\u00eb cil\u00ebve po zvog\u00eblohet, por n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Europ\u00ebn, p\u00ebrpara se mosbalancimi i asaj q\u00eb po ndodh t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtje q\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon themelet tona liberale demokratike.\/BIRN<\/p>\n

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