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M\u00eb kujtohet kjo gj\u00eb kur ndiqja k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb debatin e madh te ne n\u00ebse mund t\u00eb parashikohen apo nuk mund t\u00eb parashikohen katastrofat natyrore, konkretisht t\u00ebrmetet? Ndieja shpesh edhe mend\u00ebsin\u00eb e vjet\u00ebr t\u00eb nj\u00eb kohe m\u00eb pak t\u00eb zhvilluar teknikisht, sipas s\u00eb cil\u00ebs t\u00ebrmetet jan\u00eb krejt t\u00eb paparashikueshme, jemi n\u00eb dor\u00eb t\u00eb Zotit! Por edhe kur t\u00eb tjer\u00eb pretendonin se kishin informacione p\u00ebr koh\u00ebn dhe vendin e t\u00ebrmeteve t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n
Me th\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn, kisha edhe nj\u00eb ndjenj\u00eb faj\u00ebsie sepse nj\u00eb popullsi qytetare me formim t\u00eb mir\u00eb n\u00eb filozofi, sot n\u00eb bot\u00eb nuk ka hezitime dhe nuk ka nevoj\u00eb t\u00eb shtroj\u00eb pyetje naive si ato q\u00eb shtronin njer\u00ebzit parahistorik\u00eb. Por, ne kemi dekada q\u00eb filozofin\u00eb e kemi hequr nga programet shkollore parauniversitare. Edhe ajo q\u00eb b\u00ebhet \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb kuj\u00ebn. M\u00eb kollaj, kam th\u00ebn\u00eb, n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri gjen vend pune p\u00ebr prift dhe hoxh\u00eb, sesa p\u00ebr filozof. Dhe ja \u00e7far\u00eb e gjen nj\u00eb popull q\u00eb humbet lidhjen jo me filozofin\u00eb mekaniciste apo deterministe t\u00eb ngurt\u00eb t\u00eb viteve \u201845\u2013\u201890, por me arritjet e mendimit filozofik kritik bashk\u00ebkohor.<\/p>\n
Debat i madh ka qen\u00eb, sepse shpesh \u00ebsht\u00eb menduar se mendja njer\u00ebzore i parashikon proceset natyrore, por nuk parashikon dot ngjarjet n\u00eb histori, sepse thuhej q\u00eb t\u00eb parat jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritshme, kurse t\u00eb dytat jan\u00eb t\u00eb pap\u00ebrs\u00ebritshme: lufta luft\u00ebs nuk i ngjan. Pastaj qysh her\u00ebt, nga shekujt vjen edhe nj\u00eb pozicion tjet\u00ebr debatues. Disa thon\u00eb se njeriu i njeh ngjarjet shoq\u00ebrore, sepse i krijon vet\u00eb, kurse ato t\u00eb natyr\u00ebs jan\u00eb kaotike. K\u00ebshtu, historicist\u00ebt n\u00eb filozofin\u00eb e historis\u00eb pretendojn\u00eb se kan\u00eb zbuluar ligjin e zhvillimit t\u00eb historis\u00eb dhe din\u00eb se ku shkon ajo, pra njohin edhe at\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb vij\u00eb pas nj\u00eb shekulli e m\u00eb tep\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
Por, duke filluar nga gjysmat e fundit e shekullit dhe ndofta disa dekada m\u00eb her\u00ebt, filozof\u00eb dhe mendimtar\u00eb e ndan\u00eb mendjen p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb gj\u00eb. Edhe shoq\u00ebria, edhe natyra u n\u00ebnshtrohen t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtave potenciale parashikueshm\u00ebrie dhe joparashikueshm\u00ebrie. Sigurisht, nuk dua t\u00eb b\u00ebj k\u00ebtu leksione filozofie, por m\u00eb vjen keq q\u00eb ne popullit ton\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb dituri nuk ia kemi dh\u00ebn\u00eb. Dhe pasojat jan\u00eb t\u00eb tilla, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb katastrofa sociale me pasoja edhe humbje jete.<\/p>\n
Q\u00eb filozofia mund t\u00eb shp\u00ebtoj\u00eb jet\u00eb njer\u00ebzish, k\u00ebt\u00eb e besova k\u00ebt\u00eb her\u00eb dhe isha krenar. A d\u00ebgjon Ministria e Arsimit? K\u00ebt\u00eb nuk e di. A d\u00ebgjon Akademia e Shkencave, q\u00eb nuk nd\u00ebrhyn n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb debat? As k\u00ebt\u00eb nuk kam nga ta di.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht, pati mendimtar\u00eb q\u00eb i ndan\u00eb proceset, nuk ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi, shoq\u00ebrore ose natyrore, n\u00eb :<\/p>\n
a. Stagnativ\u00eb \u2013 atyre nuk ke \u00e7far\u00eb u parashikon, ata jan\u00eb dhe mbeten ata q\u00eb kan\u00eb qen\u00eb, pak a shum\u00eb.<\/p>\n
b. Ciklik\u00eb, ose pak a shum\u00eb, t\u00eb till\u00eb sikurse jan\u00eb l\u00ebvizjet elipsoide t\u00eb planet\u00ebve ose trupave qiellor\u00eb. K\u00ebtu shkalla e parashikimit t\u00eb asaj\u00a0q\u00eb do t\u00eb vij\u00eb m\u00eb pas \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb dhe parashikimi m\u00eb i sigurt, sepse jan\u00eb cikle q\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebriten prej pafund\u00ebsisht koh\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n
c. Procese me gjendje stacionare, ku proceset kan\u00eb dinamik\u00ebn e tyre t\u00eb luhatjes rreth nj\u00eb gjendjeje t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme, ose pak a shum\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme. Edhe k\u00ebto gjendje stacionare jan\u00eb t\u00eb parashikueshme, kurse luhatjet e sistemeve rreth tyre kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr korrigjime.<\/p>\n
d. Stokastike, ose ajo q\u00eb quhet \u201cgjendjet e kaosit\u201d, sepse ndodh q\u00eb sistemi q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb i parashikuesh\u00ebm n\u00eb thelbin e vet, p\u00ebson fillimisht ndryshime t\u00eb pap\u00ebrfillshme, nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb cilave i stokon n\u00eb dinamik\u00ebn e vet, ndikohet prej tyre, devijon nga rregulli i zbuluar m\u00eb par\u00eb dhe nuk plot\u00ebson pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb e parashikimeve t\u00eb b\u00ebra. K\u00ebtu futet edhe \u201cteoria e loj\u00ebs\u201d, q\u00eb sociologjikisht mund t\u00eb shprehet q\u00eb \u00e7do individ kur hyn n\u00eb nj\u00eb proces, qarkullim rrugor, treg etj., ndryshon t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e sistemit q\u00eb ai ka studiuar p\u00ebrpara k\u00ebtij veprimi, pra e ndryshon sistemin duke shkaktuar pasoja t\u00eb papritura. T\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto sot modelizohen dhe u ngjajn\u00eb parimeve t\u00eb pap\u00ebrcaktueshm\u00ebris\u00eb, n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb t\u00eb parametrave t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm. Sikurse \u00ebsht\u00eb e pap\u00ebrcaktueshme n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb vendndodhja dhe energjia e nj\u00eb mikrogrimce.<\/p>\n
e. Sikurse ka parashikime q\u00eb nuk lidhen me pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb e l\u00ebvizjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00ebze t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb sistemi, por parashikueshm\u00ebria lidhet me fenomene masive, me agregate elementesh, n\u00eb forma probabilitetesh gjendjesh kolektive, sikurse p\u00ebrdoren n\u00eb rastin e shkencave kuantike. Por metodat kuantifikuese sot p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr t\u00eb njohur mas\u00ebn e sjelljes kolektive, si rezultat bashk\u00ebveprimesh individuale.<\/p>\n
Sigurisht, ka edhe raste t\u00eb tjera modelore, por ajo q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me faktin se parashikueshm\u00ebria ose jo e proceseve nuk varet n\u00ebse ato jan\u00eb shoq\u00ebrore ose natyrore, jan\u00eb t\u00eb lumtura ose katastrofike, jan\u00eb me pasoja t\u00eb d\u00ebmshme ose me pasoja t\u00eb mira, shihen ose jo me sy. Lidhen me gjendjen n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ndodhet sistemi.<\/p>\n
Sot parashikohen gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb mir\u00eb uraganet, klima dhe ndryshimet e saj, ndotja e mjedisit dhe evoluimi i saj, sikurse edhe dukuri t\u00eb tjera, t\u00eb cilat m\u00eb p\u00ebrpara as nuk b\u00ebhej fjal\u00eb t\u00eb dihej se ku do t\u00eb shkonin. Aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb sot, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet analiz\u00ebs s\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave numerike t\u00eb big datave, ve\u00e7 prediktimeve, b\u00ebhen edhe devijime t\u00eb ngjarjeve t\u00eb pritshme n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen. Ndryshohet e ardhmja. Pra, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb thjesht ideja p\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikuar, por q\u00eb duke parashikuar t\u00eb devijohet, ta z\u00ebm\u00eb nj\u00eb epidemi, sjellja e klient\u00ebve etj., drejt nj\u00eb objektivi ose stacioni q\u00eb u intereson menaxher\u00ebve.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr t\u00ebrmetet sot gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb tep\u00ebr studiohet dinamika gjeofizike e shtresave t\u00eb tok\u00ebs, ku teknologjit\u00eb q\u00eb bazohen te instrumentet mat\u00ebse t\u00eb sinjaleve sizmike n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet gjeofon\u00ebve na lejojn\u00eb t\u00eb njohim, modelojm\u00eb, vizualizojm\u00eb me sakt\u00ebsi gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe l\u00ebvizjen e tyre. Pra, n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb, edhe t\u00eb parashikojm\u00eb rrisqet sizmike.<\/p>\n
Por tjet\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb kesh mund\u00ebsi t\u00eb parashikosh dhe tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikosh v\u00ebrtet. Sepse hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb llogari elemente q\u00eb njeriu njeh, por jo ata q\u00eb ai nuk njeh akoma, dukuri t\u00eb rastit, kontekste t\u00eb rinj t\u00eb paparashikuesh\u00ebm m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, debati sot nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb ai dogmatiku midis parashikueshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe jo parashikueshm\u00ebris\u00eb, por \u00e7\u00ebshtja \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb gjendet nj\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr midis dy t\u00eb kund\u00ebrtave p\u00ebrjashtuese. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb krijohen mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e nj\u00eb parashikueshm\u00ebrie probab\u00ebl, e nj\u00eb horizonti parashikueshm\u00ebrie, e nj\u00eb parashikueshm\u00ebrie t\u00eb korrigjueshme hap pas hapi sipas metod\u00ebs t\u00eb ndryshimit inxhinierik t\u00eb modelizimeve prediktive.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb, specialist\u00eb n\u00eb sizmologji theksojn\u00eb se parashikohen gjendje dinamike sizmologjike. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb arsyeja q\u00eb edhe funksionojn\u00eb qendrat e vrojtimit dhe observimit sizmologjik dhe q\u00eb mbajn\u00eb sidomos n\u00eb v\u00ebzhgim zona me risk sizmik t\u00eb lart\u00eb. Por, askush nuk pretendon prej tyre se mund t\u00eb parashikoj\u00eb or\u00ebn, dit\u00ebn, shkall\u00ebn e intensitetit me sakt\u00ebsi. Madje, ka pritshm\u00ebri q\u00eb nuk rezultojn\u00eb fare duke u futur n\u00eb kategorin\u00eb e pritshm\u00ebrive probab\u00ebl.<\/p>\n
Kush pret q\u00eb t\u00ebrmeti t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb or\u00ebn q\u00eb ai ka parashikuar, mund t\u00eb zhg\u00ebnjehet r\u00ebnd\u00eb. Por, kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb teoria e riskut si metodologji menaxhimi parashikueshm\u00ebrish t\u00eb injorohet dhe ta mbyll\u00ebsh dit\u00ebn duke ia futur kot: Nuk di \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb, pra nuk merrem me k\u00ebt\u00eb pun\u00eb! Dhe t\u00eb q\u00ebndrosh brenda q\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb z\u00ebr\u00eb \u00e7atia, duke shpresuar se do t\u00eb t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb jast\u00ebku q\u00eb ke vendosur n\u00eb kok\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Po k\u00ebshtu, parashikueshm\u00ebria si evitim i riskut \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr form\u00eb e parath\u00ebnies s\u00eb ngjarjeve me rrezikshm\u00ebri t\u00eb lart\u00eb ose t\u00eb ul\u00ebt. K\u00ebshtu merren probabilitetet q\u00eb ngjarja t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb dhe ato q\u00eb ngjarja t\u00eb mos ndodh\u00eb, efektet e tyre, d\u00ebmet e secilit prej tyre dhe merret vendimi brenda parametrave t\u00eb siguris\u00eb. Sipas ligjit t\u00eb formuluar nga Edward Murphy, ky inxhinieri i aeronautik\u00ebs, amerikan, i cili ka v\u00ebrtetuar q\u00eb k\u00ebtu duhet t\u00eb mbahet parasysh ajo q\u00eb n\u00ebse parashikohet q\u00eb do t\u00eb vij\u00eb nj\u00eb pasoj\u00eb e pap\u00eblqyeshme, ajo do t\u00eb vij\u00eb medoemos. E keqja e t\u00ebrheq bot\u00ebn drejt vetes! Kjo justifikohet me shum\u00eb argumente, por nj\u00eb prej tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb prirja e sistemeve t\u00eb mbyllura p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkuar drejt entropis\u00eb, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb drejt kaosit.<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
M\u00eb ka ndodhur dy her\u00eb t\u00eb jem n\u00eb zona urbane per\u00ebndimore, n\u00eb qytete t\u00eb zhvilluara dhe me popullsi shum\u00eb t\u00eb kulturuar dhe mendje kritike kur ka pasur panik kolektiv. \u00c7far\u00eb kam par\u00eb?<\/p>\n
Do t\u00eb kalonte kometa Halley. Dhe pati parashikime se ajo n\u00eb mos do t\u00eb p\u00ebrplasej edhe me Tok\u00ebn, mund t\u00eb sillte ndryshime klimatike. Nj\u00eb thashethem urban, q\u00eb p\u00ebrhapej me shpejt\u00ebsin\u00eb e l\u00ebvizjes s\u00eb komet\u00ebs, sado q\u00eb specialist\u00ebt n\u00eb mediat serioze e mohonin k\u00ebt\u00eb mund\u00ebsi. Dy dit\u00eb p\u00ebrpara vura re se nj\u00ebsit\u00eb e shitjes ishin boshatisur nga uji, buka, konservat.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebshtu ndodhi nj\u00ebsoj edhe n\u00eb vitin 2000, kur u p\u00ebrhap thashethemi se kompjuter\u00ebt nuk dinin ta b\u00ebnin kalimin e vitit nga 1999 n\u00eb 2000 dhe p\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb do t\u00eb dilnin jasht\u00eb loje. Priteshin katastrofa n\u00eb centralet atomike etj.. Ekspert\u00ebt e mohuan, por p\u00ebrs\u00ebri vija re q\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00ebsit\u00eb e shitjes nuk kishte m\u00eb oriz, makarona, konserva peshku, midhjesh, madje as sardele!!!<\/p>\n
Po t\u00eb mos kesh lexuar psikologjin\u00eb e Jungut, sigurisht habitesh. Por, njeriu ja q\u00eb e ruan arketipin e tij milionavje\u00e7ar q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb aty, i pazbutur as nga dija, as nga kultura, as nga shkenca. Frika \u00ebsht\u00eb atje e fshehur dhe shp\u00ebrthen.<\/p>\n
Mir\u00eb nuk ndodh, por po ndodhi? M\u00eb mir\u00eb po mbledh ca ushqime, nuk m\u00eb b\u00ebn keq! Pra, n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast sjellja joracionale b\u00ebhet probabilisht racionale. Frika se mos ndodh\u00eb di\u00e7ka dhe menaxhimi i s\u00eb keqes paraprakisht konsiderohet nj\u00eb mas\u00eb paraprake racionale. Ja k\u00ebshtu \u00ebsht\u00eb njeriu. Dhe mir\u00eb b\u00ebn q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb k\u00ebshtu.<\/p>\n
Merr masa, mban rezerva individualisht, familjarisht, shoq\u00ebrisht, \u00ebsht\u00eb i moderuar n\u00eb harxhime, nuk merr rrisqe t\u00eb kota, mbrohet.<\/p>\n
Gjith\u00eb industria e sigurimeve mb\u00ebshtetet te frika e njeriut, te ky instinkt milionavje\u00e7ar q\u00eb nuk zhb\u00ebhet as nga shkenca dhe as nga e v\u00ebrteta.<\/p>\n
Hap llaf se do t\u00eb bien zjarre n\u00eb katund n\u00ebse do q\u00eb t\u00eb rris\u00ebsh numrin e klient\u00ebve n\u00eb agjencin\u00eb sigurimeve q\u00eb sapo ke hapur.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, duke ditur arketimin jungian b\u00ebhet kujdes q\u00eb informacionet q\u00eb mund t\u00eb rrisin shkall\u00ebn e frik\u00ebs kolektive, q\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb panik masiv, t\u00eb trajtohen me kujdes. Sa filma t\u00eb Hollywood-it ka me k\u00ebt\u00eb tem\u00eb. Shkenc\u00ebtarja q\u00eb e di q\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb t\u00ebrmet e do t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrroj\u00eb qytetin, me shum\u00eb mund\u00ebsi, por mundet edhe jo. Po qe se lajm\u00ebron popullsin\u00eb, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb do panikosen dhe n\u00eb at\u00eb qytet t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb atij q\u00eb quhet \u201cefekt lajm\u00ebrimi\u201d, t\u00eb ndodhin katastrofa shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb humbje jet\u00ebsh, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb rreziku realisht mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i kot\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, k\u00ebto informacione administrohen me shum\u00eb kujdes nga autoritetet publike.<\/p>\n
Dhe mbi t\u00eb gjitha, \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u mbajtur parasysh edhe nj\u00eb element tjet\u00ebr. Ai q\u00eb Bill Kova\u00e7 ngre n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga tekstet e tij t\u00eb famshme. Gazetari kurr\u00eb nuk duhet ta harroj\u00eb statusin e tij. Por, te ne nga padurimi, protagonizmi, nga fakti q\u00eb shoq\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb ende e papjekur n\u00eb profesionalizimin e saj, nuk i respekton rolet, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb pun\u00ebn e t\u00eb gjith\u00ebve.<\/p>\n
Ti sheh dik\u00eb me shkoll\u00eb profesionale ende t\u00eb pambaruar, q\u00eb t\u00eb flet p\u00ebr vrimat e zeza sikur t\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtori i Ajnshtajnit.<\/p>\n
Flet me dik\u00eb q\u00eb e di q\u00eb nuk ka lexuar kurr\u00eb nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr sociologjie, q\u00eb t\u00eb tregon se cilat jan\u00eb problemet e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb shoq\u00ebris\u00eb shqiptare.<\/p>\n
Diskuton me dik\u00eb q\u00eb nuk merr vesh asgj\u00eb nga politika, por trajton problemet e siguris\u00eb politike t\u00eb kombit shqiptar sikur t\u00eb kishte qen\u00eb Kisingeri!<\/p>\n
Edhe n\u00eb rastin e t\u00ebrmetit e nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb ndodh. Ministra q\u00eb gjoja inspektojn\u00eb nd\u00ebrtesat! Elektoraliz\u00ebm dhe propagand\u00eb t\u00eb pastra. Nuk ka inxhinier\u00eb ministria p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar komisione ekspertize dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb dal\u00eb me p\u00ebrfundime? Kush e mban p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb solet\u00eb e krisur t\u00eb thyhet dhe na vret shkollar\u00ebt e vegj\u00ebl!<\/p>\n
Madje, edhe ndonj\u00eb sizmolog q\u00eb me siguri, pa mbajtur parasysh modelet e prediktimit, na thot\u00eb: Rreziku i madh kaloi, por do t\u00eb ket\u00eb l\u00ebkundje t\u00eb vogla!<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrse merr veten n\u00eb qaf\u00eb v\u00eblla? Ku je kaq i sigurt?<\/p>\n
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K\u00ebtu kam par\u00eb ndonj\u00eb deputet me dy klas\u00eb shkoll\u00eb, gjysm\u00eb \u00e7mendanik, gjysm\u00ebsherr\u2013 budalla q\u00eb b\u00ebnte formulime p\u00ebr ligjin p\u00ebr Akademin\u00eb e Shkencave.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00ebrmeti p\u00ebrpara k\u00ebsaj!
\nBjer t\u00ebrmet ma hidh tavanin n\u00eb kok\u00eb!
\nBudallai po diskuton p\u00ebr shkenc\u00eb<\/p>\n
Sepse Bill Kova\u00e7 thekson se edhe eksperti gabon kur abuzon me statusin e ekspertit. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb argumentit, media jep titullin e tij: SIZMOLOG. Dhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb prodhon FakeNews sepse nga argument shkencor induktiv, na jep argument mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb autoritetin e titullit. Ku i ke provat zot\u00ebri? A ka sh\u00ebrbime sizmologjike shteti? Ato jan\u00eb t\u00eb certifikuara dhe kan\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsin\u00eb t\u00eb japin informacione. Po ata gabojn\u00eb? Patjet\u00ebr. Por nuk kemi \u00e7far\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb. Sikurse e ka shkruar prej nj\u00eb shekulli Walter Lipmann, n\u00ebse institucionet publike degjenerojn\u00eb, do t\u00eb degjeneroj\u00eb edhe media. Media nuk i korrigjon dot institucionet publike. Watch dog \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb iluzion i \u00ebmb\u00ebl, por hajde ta p\u00ebrs\u00ebrisim n\u00eb kor se na b\u00ebn mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ministri merr rolin e muratorit, kryeredaktori t\u00eb gjeologut, analisti t\u00eb zjarrfik\u00ebsit, sizmologu rolin e Zotit, kleriku t\u00eb trapmos\u00e7ar\u00ebsit dhe k\u00ebtu nis edhe nxitimi i gazetarit: Gazetari b\u00ebn ekspertin sepse nuk e verifikon burimin nga i ka ardhur informacioni. Ai nuk mund ta dij\u00eb vler\u00ebn shkencore t\u00eb informacionit, por duhet t\u00eb dij\u00eb se n\u00eb raste katastrofash, me rrezik paniku kolektiv, vet\u00ebm autoritetet publike shkencore kan\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn e informacionit q\u00eb rregullon sjelljen qytetare.<\/p>\n
Se \u00e7far\u00eb thot\u00eb edhe ai greku \u2013 edhe kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e pasigurt. Kush \u00ebsht\u00eb ai? \u00c7far\u00eb provash ka ai? Sa gabon ai? Edhe ai duhet marr\u00eb me skepticiz\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Sa her\u00eb dreqi ta marr\u00eb flasim n\u00eb leksione p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb profesion gazetari i mir\u00eb nuk beson asgj\u00eb, nuk i beson as t\u00eb intervistuarit, as d\u00ebshmitarit, as ekspertit. B\u00ebn sikur i beson. Vet\u00ebm verifikon pafund. Cinizmi t\u00eb shp\u00ebton, skepticizmi t\u00eb shp\u00ebton.<\/p>\n
Por n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb shoq\u00ebri q\u00eb ngjan me ato ekipet ku luhet futboll total, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb i b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha rolet. Sepse jemi shoq\u00ebri e opinionit. Nuk ka t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, por ka vet\u00ebm opinione. Ashtu dua un\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb! N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb media t\u00eb deklamimit, ku gazetari vet\u00ebm i zgjat mikrofonin politikanit dhe raporton \u00e7far\u00eb thot\u00eb ai, e quan informacion, m\u00ebsohet q\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb edhe me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtetat shkencore me pasoja sociale. Tjet\u00ebr deklaratat e politikanit dhe tjet\u00ebr informacioni teknik dhe shkencor. Nuk raportohen nj\u00ebsoj. Ja p\u00ebrse ka shtyp politik dhe shtyp informacioni t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm objektiv. Por, tani ka teoricien\u00eb amator\u00eb si predikues shkret\u00ebtirash, q\u00eb predikojn\u00eb se gazetari \u00ebsht\u00eb bindja ime e brendshme dhe kaq. Nuk ka t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb shkencore!!! Lloj-lloj delirant\u00ebsh!<\/p>\n
* * *<\/p>\n
Na ra bretku duke u lutur te dera e Ministris\u00eb s\u00eb Arsimit prej vitesh: Fusni mediologjin\u00eb n\u00eb programet m\u00ebsimore!<\/p>\n
Po, po, bjeri teneqes.<\/p>\n
Folu mureve! Nuk mundet q\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri t\u00eb komunikimit masiv publiku t\u00eb mos edukohet me m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn si p\u00ebrdoret, menaxhohet informacioni, si trajtohet dhe kuptohet media!<\/p>\n
Kujt i flet se!
\nDhe ja publiku, q\u00eb thot\u00eb se i besoi nj\u00eb medieje dhe doli n\u00eb rrug\u00eb.
\nO Zot, nj\u00eb shekull shkenca komunikimi e\u00a0hedhin n\u00eb er\u00eb. Injorant\u00ebt!
\nDhe i shkon polici n\u00eb der\u00eb gazetarit t\u00eb ri\u00a0t\u00eb shkret\u00eb?
\nHajde pak me mua n\u00eb hapsan\u00eb zoti\u00a0gazetar! Ta tregoj pak ty at\u00eb t\u00ebrmetin atje te
\nshtat\u00eb penxheret!<\/p>\n
O zot\u00ebrinj, shkencat e komunikimit nuk pranojn\u00eb q\u00eb media mund ta ndikoj\u00eb publikun k\u00ebshtu sipas vullnetit t\u00eb vet!<\/p>\n
Publiku ndikohet kur ka qejf vet\u00eb, kur \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb hall, kur do t\u00eb ndikohet, at\u00ebher\u00eb po.<\/p>\n
Se media opozitare i th\u00ebrret publikut q\u00eb hajde hedhim n\u00eb tu\u00e7 qeverin\u00eb, por publiku nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb se vjen.<\/p>\n
E njeh polici i gjor\u00eb teorin\u00eb e Shkoll\u00ebs s\u00eb Kolumbias se publiku e lexon median dhe e ndjek, influencohet prej saj vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse grupi rreth liderit lokal t\u00eb opinionit i krijon besimin se media duhet besuar.<\/p>\n
Nuk ka faj polici q\u00eb kryen detyr\u00ebn, por as ne nuk duhet t\u00eb ngat\u00ebrrojm\u00eb rolet.<\/p>\n
Media m\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb pushimet t\u2019i b\u00ebj vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Jug, por un\u00eb nuk bindem p\u00ebr kiamet.<\/p>\n
Media e propagand\u00ebs m\u00eb thot\u00eb t\u00eb shkoj t\u00eb votoj, por un\u00eb nuk bindem p\u00ebr kiamet. M\u00eb p\u00eblqen t\u00eb abstenoj,\u2013 m\u00eb thoshte Qenan K.<\/p>\n
Sikurse shkruante Zhak Elyl, i manipuluari manipulohet sepse ka d\u00ebshir\u00eb t\u00eb manipulohet nga manipuluesi.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, nj\u00eb mediologji, sepse po u ngjajm\u00eb shkollave komuniste ku nuk u flitej vajzave n\u00eb mosh\u00eb p\u00ebr menstruacionet. Turp! Dhe ne nuk u flasim t\u00eb rinjve p\u00ebr mediat, si duhet asimiluar informacioni mediatik. Dhe prandaj ka q\u00eb e besojn\u00eb se po e tha televizori, \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb!<\/p>\n
Iluzion q\u00eb i duhet politik\u00ebs!<\/p>\n
E keni par\u00eb se si politika b\u00ebn kujdes q\u00eb njer\u00ebzit t\u00eb mos ken\u00eb probleme me sinjalin televiziv, prandaj nuk e k\u00ebpusin transmetimin analog. T\u00eb gjith\u00eb n\u00eb dark\u00eb me kok\u00eb te televizori!<\/p>\n
Ose, si th\u00ebrriste ai kujdestari, pastaj:\u00a0Gjum\u00eb qafira!
\nP\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, n\u00eb at\u00eb panik u implikuan\u00a0kat\u00ebr elemente:
\nMungesa kulturore lidhur me teorit\u00eb dhe\u00a0modelet prediktive.<\/p>\n
Mungesa e analiz\u00ebs jungiane p\u00ebr arketipin instinktiv, q\u00eb n\u00eb rast katastrofash ka prirjen t\u00eb b\u00ebhet model i zgjedhjes racionale.<\/p>\n
Ngat\u00ebrrimi i roleve dhe statuseve n\u00eb nj\u00eb shoq\u00ebri tranzicioni, ku askush nuk e di se kush \u00ebsht\u00eb. Si tha dikur aktori Naim Frash\u00ebri, i ndjeri, u prezantua duke th\u00ebn\u00eb: Quhem Naim Frash\u00ebri. Ky q\u00eb e d\u00ebgjoi iu p\u00ebrgjigj: P\u00ebrsh\u00ebndetje, jam Sk\u00ebnderbeu!<\/p>\n
Dhe pastaj mungesa e kultur\u00ebs mediologjike n\u00eb shkolla.<\/p>\n
Vazhdo, vazhdo b\u00ebrtit! Bjeri legenit! Ne kemi tekste nga Harwardi!<\/p>\n
Prandaj, mos i zgjidhni problemet me polic\u00eb dhe me hetuesi, sepse k\u00ebtu nuk di kujt t\u2019ia \u00e7osh m\u00eb par\u00eb policin te dera e sht\u00ebpis\u00eb. Sidomos n\u00eb koh\u00eb katastrofash natyrore. T\u00eb gjith\u00eb \u00e7mendemi, kush m\u00eb shum\u00eb e kush m\u00eb pak.<\/p>\n
Ju jo???\/\u00a0Panorama\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nga Artan Fuga Mediat amerikane dhe t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs Per\u00ebndimore, rreth dy jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, kishin dit\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebrgatisnin publikun se nj\u00eb uragan po afrohej drejt bregut t\u00eb kontinentit amerikan. Specialist\u00ebt kishin llogaritur shpejt\u00ebsin\u00eb, forc\u00ebn e tij shkat\u00ebrruese dhe sasin\u00eb e reshjeve, shpejt\u00ebsin\u00eb e er\u00ebs dhe d\u00ebmet q\u00eb do t\u00eb sillte. Nj\u00eb jav\u00eb p\u00ebrpara dihej […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11418,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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