{"id":11396,"date":"2019-05-10T14:58:39","date_gmt":"2019-05-10T12:58:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=11396"},"modified":"2019-05-10T14:58:39","modified_gmt":"2019-05-10T12:58:39","slug":"duhen-1-milion-vota","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=11396","title":{"rendered":"Duhen 1 milion vota\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nga Eduard\u00a0Zaloshnja<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb her\u00eb n\u00eb tre dekadat e fundit, ka ndodhur q\u00eb nj\u00eb koalicion n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ta ket\u00eb arritur rrotacionin politik me m\u00eb pak se 1 milion\u00eb vota. Kjo gj\u00eb ndodhi n\u00eb vitin 2005, p\u00ebr dy arsye specifike t\u00eb atyre zgjedhjeve. S\u00eb pari, n\u00eb 100 zonat e mazhoritarit nuk kishte balotazh, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb shum\u00eb kandidat\u00eb t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb i fituan zonat edhe me 30%-40% t\u00eb votave n\u00eb zonat p\u00ebrkat\u00ebse. Kjo, sepse kandidat\u00ebt e majt\u00eb t\u00eb LSI-s\u00eb, PSD-s\u00eb, PDS-s\u00eb etj. u fut\u00ebn si pyk\u00eb n\u00eb mes, duke u prishur pun\u00eb kandidat\u00ebve t\u00eb PS-s\u00eb. S\u00eb dyti, fal\u00eb skem\u00ebs s\u00eb \u201cDushkut t\u00eb madh\u201d, PR-ja dhe aleat\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl t\u00eb PD-s\u00eb fituan shumic\u00ebn e 40 mandateve q\u00eb shp\u00ebrndaheshin me sistemin e korrektuar proporcional.<\/p>\n

Rrotacionet e tjera t\u00eb tre dekadave kan\u00eb patur vul\u00ebn \u201c1 milion vota\u201d n\u00eb ballin e fituesit. N\u00eb vitin 1992, koalicioni i PD-s\u00eb mori mbi 1 milion\u00eb vota. N\u00eb vitin 1997, koalicioni i PS-s\u00eb mori mbi 1 milion\u00eb vota. N\u00eb vitin 2013, koalicioni i i PS-s\u00eb mori 1 milion\u00eb vota.<\/p>\n

Sot koalicioni i madh i PD-s\u00eb pret t\u00eb marr\u00eb pushtetin, por nuk i ka 1 milion\u00eb vota. Asnj\u00eb nga sondazhet e publikuara deri m\u00eb sot nuk e tregojn\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb. Ato tregojn\u00eb se PS-ja rrotullohet (brenda marzhit t\u00eb gabimit statistikor +\/-3%) rreth nivelit 50%, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb vet\u00ebm 1.5 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb t\u00eb rritur jan\u00eb gati t\u00eb votojn\u00eb sot.<\/p>\n

Pse duhet nj\u00eb ep\u00ebrsi d\u00ebrrmuese p\u00ebr rrotacionin e radh\u00ebs?<\/p>\n

N\u00eb munges\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb sistemi elektoral si i 2005-\u00ebs (kur koalicioni i PD-s\u00eb erdhi n\u00eb pushtet me vet\u00ebm 41% t\u00eb vot\u00ebs popullore), \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u2019i marr\u00ebsh pushtet n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri nj\u00eb partie q\u00eb ka pothuaj gjysm\u00ebn e votave t\u00eb atyre q\u00eb jan\u00eb gati t\u00eb votojn\u00eb. A i fitoi dot zgjedhjet Rama n\u00eb 2011, megjith\u00ebse num\u00ebrimi fillestar tregoi se kishte nj\u00eb ep\u00ebrsi minimale ndaj Bash\u00ebs n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb? Rinum\u00ebrimi i votave n\u00eb \u201ckutit\u00eb e gabuara\u201d nxori fitues Bash\u00ebn, edhe p\u00ebrkund\u00ebr habis\u00eb s\u00eb ambasadorit amerikan, i cili kishte p\u00ebrveshur m\u00ebng\u00ebt gjat\u00eb num\u00ebrimit fillestar\u2026<\/p>\n

Ndoshta i djegur nga ajo p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb e 2011-\u00ebs, Rama nuk i besoi futjes n\u00eb zgjedhjet e 2013-\u00ebs me nj\u00eb koalicion t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb majt\u00eb (plus AK e FRD). Prandaj u detyrua t\u00eb hante ngjalat n\u00eb Lal\u00ebz, p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb koalicionin me Met\u00ebn \u2013 gj\u00eb q\u00eb i siguroi 1 milion votat e famshme\u2026<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Aktualisht, koalicioni i PS-s\u00eb me partit\u00eb e vogla t\u00eb majta, ka rr\u00ebnj\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb thella elektorale. Dardha bie n\u00ebn dardh\u00eb e n\u00ebn dardh\u00eb \u2013 biri voton si babai, e nipi voton si gjyshi ish-komunist (p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos shkuar deri tek st\u00ebrnipi\u2026) P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, k\u00ebt\u00eb koalicion mund ta llogarit\u00ebsh me rreth 750-800 mij\u00eb vota, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsit mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb rreth 1.5-1.6 milion\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend si Shqip\u00ebria, kur opozita futet n\u00eb zgjedhje pa nj\u00eb ep\u00ebrsi t\u00eb qart\u00eb paraprake, rezultati dihet si del \u2013 ose qysh n\u00eb num\u00ebrimin fillestar, ose pas apelimit n\u00eb KQZ e n\u00eb Kolegj zgjedhor\u2026<\/p>\n

Problemi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm shqiptar\u2026<\/p>\n

N\u00cb TURQI, n\u00eb zgjedhjet p\u00ebr bashkin\u00eb e Stambollit, fitoi pas 17 vjet\u00ebsh nj\u00eb kandidat republikan. Por problemi ishte se ai fitoi me nj\u00eb ep\u00ebrsi fare t\u00eb vog\u00ebl (0.1%). Dhe sadoq\u00eb rinum\u00ebrimi i votave e nxori at\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri fitues, Erdogani e detyroi Komisionin Zgjedhor t\u2019i anuloj\u00eb zgjedhjet dhe t\u2019i p\u00ebrs\u00ebris\u00eb ato n\u00eb 23 qershor.<\/p>\n

N\u00cb SHBA, Donald Trumpi i fitoi zgjedhjet n\u00eb Kolegjin Elektoral, fal\u00eb nj\u00eb ep\u00ebrsie fare t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb tij n\u00eb shtetet Pensilvani, Michigan dhe Uinskonsin (p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht 0.4%, 0,2% dhe 0.1%). Por vot\u00ebn popullore n\u00eb rang komb\u00ebtar e fitoi Klintoni, me pothuaj 3% (sa \u00e7\u2019e kishin parashikuar shumica d\u00ebrrmuese e sondazheve parazgjedhore).<\/p>\n

Edhe pse Trumpi shkoi n\u00eb Sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e Bardh\u00eb, nuk e linte meraku p\u00ebr humbjen e vot\u00ebs popullore. Prandaj ai ngriti nj\u00eb komision hetimor, p\u00ebr t\u00eb v\u00ebrtetuar se n\u00eb disa shtete ku ai humbi, kishin votuar ilegalisht miliona emigrant\u00eb. Ai komision nuk arriti ta v\u00ebrtetonte k\u00ebt\u00eb gj\u00eb, dhe u shp\u00ebrb\u00eb pa shum\u00eb zhurm\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Por ai episod e ka b\u00ebr\u00eb kryetaren e opozit\u00ebs t\u00eb ngrej\u00eb alarmin p\u00ebr zgjedhjet e 2020-\u00ebs. Sipas saj, n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se fitorja e kandidatit t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs ndaj Trumpit do t\u00eb jet\u00eb me ep\u00ebrsi minimale, ky i fundit nuk do t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb t\u00eb largohet nga Sht\u00ebpia e Bardh\u00eb, duke e zvarritur \u00e7\u00ebshtjen pafund\u00ebsisht n\u00eb shkall\u00ebt e ndryshme t\u00eb gjykatave. (Trumpi njihet si nj\u00eb biznesmen q\u00eb ka zhvilluar gjyqe t\u00eb pafundme, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos pranuar t\u00eb paguante detyrime t\u00eb ndryshme ndaj t\u00eb tret\u00ebve.)<\/p>\n

Konkluzion<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00eb qoft\u00eb se sondazhet tregojn\u00eb q\u00eb opozita e bashkuar nuk i afrohet 1 milion votave, do t\u00eb ishte e rrezikshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb, q\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb zgjedhje t\u00eb parakohshme. Vet\u00ebm n\u00eb qoft\u00eb se ajo i afrohet kuot\u00ebs 1 milion ose PS-ja ndahet n\u00eb dy pjes\u00eb (si\u00e7 u nda para 2005-\u00ebs), mund t\u00eb shpresoj\u00eb opozita p\u00ebr fitore. Sepse eksperimenti me qeveri teknike tranzitore nuk i funksionoi m\u00eb 2017-\u00ebn\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga Eduard\u00a0Zaloshnja Vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb her\u00eb n\u00eb tre dekadat e fundit, ka ndodhur q\u00eb nj\u00eb koalicion n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ta ket\u00eb arritur rrotacionin politik me m\u00eb pak se 1 milion\u00eb vota. Kjo gj\u00eb ndodhi n\u00eb vitin 2005, p\u00ebr dy arsye specifike t\u00eb atyre zgjedhjeve. S\u00eb pari, n\u00eb 100 zonat e mazhoritarit nuk kishte balotazh, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb shum\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nDuhen 1 milion vota\u2026 - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redaktori.com\/?p=11396\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sq_AL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Duhen 1 milion vota\u2026 - Informohu qart\u00ebsisht!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nga Eduard\u00a0Zaloshnja Vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb her\u00eb n\u00eb tre dekadat e fundit, ka ndodhur q\u00eb nj\u00eb koalicion n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri ta ket\u00eb arritur rrotacionin politik me m\u00eb pak se 1 milion\u00eb vota. 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